Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Des Moines, IA

803 
WWUS53 KDMX 311947
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
247 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

IAC007-051-135-185-312015-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-230331T2015Z/
Monroe IA-Davis IA-Wayne IA-Appanoose IA-
247 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MONROE...WEST CENTRAL DAVIS...EAST CENTRAL WAYNE
AND APPANOOSE COUNTIES...

At 247 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Mystic, or near
Centerville, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Rathbun, Honey Creek State Park, Sharon Bluffs State Park, Udell, 
  Lake Sundown, Moravia and Unionville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for south central
and southeastern Iowa.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4102 9284 4074 9254 4059 9299 4066 9318
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 233DEG 47KT 4077 9293 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Hagenhoff

622 
WWUS53 KDMX 311959
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
259 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

IAC185-312008-
/O.CAN.KDMX.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-230331T2015Z/
Wayne IA-
259 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL WAYNE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for south central
and southeastern Iowa.

LAT...LON 4080 9260 4069 9292 4082 9300 4102 9284
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 233DEG 47KT 4086 9277 

$$

IAC007-051-135-312015-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-230331T2015Z/
Monroe IA-Davis IA-Appanoose IA-
259 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MONROE...WEST CENTRAL DAVIS AND NORTHERN APPANOOSE
COUNTIES...

At 258 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Lake Sundown,
or 10 miles northeast of Centerville, moving northeast at 55 mph.

THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR Appanoose County.

HAZARD...Baseball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Emergency management.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured. 
         Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs, 
         siding, and vehicles.

Locations impacted include...
Centerville, Lake Sundown, Rathbun Lake, Moravia, Mystic, Unionville,
Rathbun, Udell and Honey Creek State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for south central
and southeastern Iowa.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4080 9260 4069 9292 4082 9300 4102 9284
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 233DEG 47KT 4086 9277 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Hagenhoff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
208 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.DISCUSSION.../Today through Thursday/
Issued at 421 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Key Messages:

- Moderate Risk for Severe Weather Today!
- Strong winds today and even stronger tonight.
- Snow expected over northern Iowa tonight. Still monitoring the
  potential for moderate accumulations with significant blowing
  snow.
- Severe weather risk may return Tuesday.

Definitely a multi-faceted storm system to impact central Iowa over
the next 30 hours which is bringing a multitude of forecast
challenges, each of which could bring significant impacts to the
area.

A 992 mb surface low pressure is tracking northeast on schedule
though central Nebraska with the warm front extending northeast into
northwest Iowa then eastward along the IA/MN border while the upper
low is still further west and just moving into far western Nebraska.
There are two distinct strong short waves to contend with today and
the interaction and phasing of the two will play a significant role
in the evolution and timing of severe weather potential today. The
southern short wave that is still well southwest near New Mexico but
it will race northeast this morning and by early afternoon will
catch up with the northern short wave, lead to phasing and will
likely cause a quick deepening of the surface low and also cause the
surface low to jog to the north a bit. The impact of this is the
north jump of the low likely will delay the boundary passage by 2-3
hrs and lead to convective development further west around mid
afternoon. That boundary will then race east and may cross the
Mississippi River by 00z. Note due to the delayed timing, have
cancelled the Fire Weather Watch.

Severe Weather Mode:
The SPC moderate risk was expanded westward to near Interstate 35
for today due the delay mentioned above. There is the potential
for a few strong storms or even supercells in the warm section
ahead of the southern short wave over parts of southeast Iowa.
That could bring some severe weather potential for early
afternoon. For the convection along the boundary, damaging wind
gusts are still the threat with the most confidence and gusts over
70 mph are likely with some of the storms. A lot of speed shear
with this system with fairly straight hodographs with storm
motions nearly parallel to the hodographs. Hodographs are still
displaying some convex areas below 3 km which would inhibit right
mover updrafts a bit. The initial convection will be cellular and
potentially supercellular. The speed shear suggests splitting
supercells early with the left movers moving nearly north so could
get some mergers with other storms. The unknown there is if any
early mergers will be constructive or destructive to the right
movers they interact with. Sometimes that can promote quick
tornadogenesis. Large hail is certainly possible also. Storms
will be moving at 50+ mph and as mentioned previously, these fast
storm motions would promote the potential for EF-2 tornadoes. The
limiting factor remains the lack of backed flow away from just
east of the surface low. Back flow and a greater chance for
tornadoes may end up in the northeast quadrant of Iowa. Overall,
this will all quickly go linear and lead to mesovortex potential
with line normal 0-3 km shear in the 30-40 kt range. This
transition to linear also go resemble a serial derecho before it
is done assuming it last long enough to the east. Finally there is
a hail potential with the initial storms that should diminish
with the linear transition.

Snow Potential North:
The potential for snow over northern Iowa does appear to be
increasing. This system will remain quite dynamic into the
overnight and there are signs the snow could be convective into
northern Iowa. There are numerous deterministic models that have
shifted the heavier snow farther south and clipping into northern
Iowa. Cross sections and profiles do suggest strong vertical
ascent through the dendritic growth zone. The 00z HREF probs for 1
inch per hour or greater snow is now nudging into northern Iowa
as well. For now, have placed a Winter Weather Advisory into far
northern Iowa for 1-3 inches of snow along with blowing snow with
the potential for 50 mph winds. The worst case scenario is the
heavy snow line dips 20 miles south than currently forecast and
this becomes a blizzard event into northern Iowa. Continue to
monitor this situation.

Strong wind potential:
Strong southerly winds are expected ahead of the boundary today
into southern Iowa with gusts over 45 mph likely. There is the
potential for higher gusts behind the boundary passage with the
first wave of cold advection and stronger mixed layer winds
immediately behind the boundary. There is not strong support that
there will be 50+ knots available within the mixed layer at this
time so any synoptic 58+ mph winds should be limited, note that
does not include the severe storm wind potential. The wind should
subside slightly into the evening before another wave of strong
winds arrive with the primary cold front sometime between 04-12z.
That period seems to have a greater chance for high wind criteria
to occur with the 58+ mph wind gusts with the mixing efficiency
still high with another strong pressure height rise push moving
through along with cold advection. So wind headlines are
complicated. Covered the afternoon wind with an advisory and just
ran that through the night. Further north, no wind headlines but
something will be needed and potentially the later night event
will still need to be covered with a High Wind Warning.

The wind will quickly subside on Saturday as high pressure arrives
by the afternoon. Though cooler, Saturday afternoon may actually be
quite nice out with highs in the 40s to low 50s. Another warmup
arrives for Sunday and Monday with highs back in the 60s to some 70s
for much of the area. Another strong system arrives for Tuesday and
this may become another severe weather threat for the state pending
temporal and spatial parameters that are still being resolved.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon/
Issued at 208 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Some updates to timing for DSM as storms arriving into the area
within the next 30 to 45 minutes. Have removed FOD from most of
the higher end threat, as it looks like the dryline/fropa is
already along US71. Remaining sites still may see damaging winds
and large hail, and am mainly modeling the wind, but we are seeing
hail reports of golf ball as well. /rev

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT
Saturday for IAZ004>007-015>017-023>026.

Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ027-028-033>039-
044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097.

&&

DISCUSSION...Donavon
AVIATION...REV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
359 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

IAZ017-025>028-036>039-010900-
Cerro Gordo-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-
Black Hawk-
359 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

There is an Enhanced to Moderate Risk of severe storms this
afternoon. Damaging winds and tornadoes are the primary concerns
with hail as a secondary threat. Storms will be moving quickly at
over 50 mph.

Strong west to northwest winds are expected tonight with gusts of
55 mph possible. Falling snow may also occur overnight and the
combination of snow and winds may restrict visibilities from time
to time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon.

IAZ015-016-023-024-033>035-010900-
Palo Alto-Hancock-Pocahontas-Humboldt-Sac-Calhoun-Webster-
359 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

Scattered thunderstorms remain possible today with a few stronger
storms this afternoon before ending.

Strong west winds are forecast by tonight with gusts over 50 mph
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is unlikely today.

IAZ047>050-059>062-072>075-083>086-094>097-010900-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-Poweshiek-Madison-
Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Decatur-Wayne-
Appanoose-Davis-
359 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

There is an Enhanced to Moderate Risk of severe storms this
afternoon. At this time, damaging winds and tornadoes are the
primary concerns with hail as a secondary threat. Storms will be
moving quickly at over 50 mph.

A very high grassland fire danger remains across the southern
half of Iowa, especially this afternoon into the early evening.
Any fires that occur may be difficult to control.

Very strong west to northwest winds are expected by later this
afternoon and persisting overnight. A Wind Advisory is in effect
for the area this afternoon and tonight. Please refer to the
National Weather Service website at weather.gov/desmoines for
further details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon.

IAZ044>046-057-058-070-071-081-082-092-093-010900-
Crawford-Carroll-Greene-Audubon-Guthrie-Cass-Adair-Adams-Union-
Taylor-Ringgold-
359 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. A few may
produce strong wind gusts before exiting the area.

A very high grassland fire danger remains across the southern
half of Iowa, especially this afternoon into the early evening.
Any fires that occur may be difficult to control.

Very strong west to northwest winds are expected by later this
afternoon and persisting overnight. A Wind Advisory is in effect
for the area this afternoon and tonight. Please refer to the
National Weather Service website at weather.gov/desmoines for
further details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible this afternoon.

IAZ004>007-010900-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-
359 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

Scattered thunderstorms remain possible today. A few storms may
have damaging wind gusts near the Interstate 35 corridor this
afternoon.

A combination of snow and strong winds are expected tonight
produce low visibilities. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect
for the area tonight. Please refer to the National Weather
Service website at weather.gov/desmoines for further details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed toward the Interstate 35 corridor
this afternoon.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1027 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

IAZ004>007-015>017-023-024-033-311730-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Sac-
Including the cities of Estherville, Algona, Forest City,
Lake Mills, Northwood, Manly, Emmetsburg, Garner, Britt, Kanawha,
Mason City, Clear Lake, Pocahontas, Laurens, Rolfe, Fonda,
Gilmore City, Humboldt, Sac City, Lake View, Odebolt, Wall Lake,
Schaller, and Early
1027 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...Areas of Fog in Northwest Iowa...

Areas of fog have developed across portions of northwest Iowa.
Fog may lower visibilities to under one mile, at times.

Motorists are advised to slow down and use low-beam headlights.
Allow for extra following distance.

Hagenhoff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1244 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1243 PM     HAIL             MOUNT AYR               40.71N 94.24W
03/31/2023  E0.25 INCH       RINGGOLD           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA-SIZED HAIL.

&&

MP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1250 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1249 PM     HAIL             1 ESE OSCEOLA           41.03N 93.76W
03/31/2023  E1.00 INCH       CLARKE             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JAZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
115 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     HAIL             5 S MOUNT AYR           40.64N 94.24W
03/31/2023  E1.75 INCH       RINGGOLD           IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            RELAYED BY WHO-TV13 IN DES MOINES.

&&

JAZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
154 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0153 PM     HAIL             2 W MURRAY              41.04N 93.98W
03/31/2023  E1.75 INCH       CLARKE             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
156 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     HAIL             LUCAS                   41.03N 93.46W
03/31/2023  E1.75 INCH       LUCAS              IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RELAYED BY KNIA/KRLS RADIO.

&&

JAZ