Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Des Moines, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
253 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Saturday Night/
Issued at 254 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Forecast Impacts for the week:

...Significant severe/winter/synoptic wind threat
...Warm spring conditions return Sunday to Tuesday
...Next major storm next Tues/Wed

Confidence Short Term: High

Ongoing event with high end impacts expected due to storm strength.
PDS tornado watch to 8 pm; main line of convection appears to be now
at I35 with most of the activity now expected mainly east of I35,
once the line progresses east of the interstate. Still high
potential for all modes of severe in that area. As the low tracks
over northern Iowa and deepens, winds on the back side with several
inches of snow expected along the border will require some
adjustments to winter weather headlines.
Have updated the far north winter storm warnings with a blizzard
warning for Emmet county where up to 4 inches of snow may fall
overnight. The combination of snow and blowing will create dangerous
travel overnight in those areas; epsecially after midnight to 6 am
when winds will begin to drop over the area. The remainder of the
forecast area is likely to see wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph at time
following the storm, along with the snow which may briefly create
some hazardous travel over the north and much lesser impacts, other
than wind for the rest of the area. Will hold pat on wind advisory
and not upgrade, unless we see the descending jet begin to impinj on
southeast or southern Iowa this evening. That would be less lead
time, than wished, but at this point it looks like the stronger
subsidence will be short lived and mainly east southeast of the
area. Lows tonight will be quite chilly by morning with lows in the
20s northwest to the lower 30s south. The storm will lift east
northeast quickly tomorrow with sun returning in the afternoon.
Temps recover a bit into the 40s and lower 50s south. Winds will
still be quite breezy with gusts nearing 40 mph at times for most of
Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday/
Issued at 254 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Quiet weather returns for much of the region with highs returning to
the 60s to lower 70s early Sunday through the afternoon. We continue
to monitor the storm upcoming for Tuesday into Wednesday with
already an initial surge of moisture/warming for Monday, prior to
the main arrival of the system for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Another rapidly intensifying storm is anticipated during the period,
but details will need to be investigated more fully in the next
couple of days when the weather quiets down. After temperatures warm
to the 70s Tuesday, much cooler air returns for Wednesday to Friday,
though some warming is expected later in the period.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon/
Issued at 208 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Some updates to timing for DSM as storms arriving into the area
within the next 30 to 45 minutes. Have removed FOD from most of
the higher end threat, as it looks like the dryline/fropa is
already along US71. Remaining sites still may see damaging winds
and large hail, and am mainly modeling the wind, but we are seeing
hail reports of golf ball as well. /rev

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blizzard Warning from 11 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Saturday
for IAZ004.

Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT
Saturday for IAZ005>007-015-016.

Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT
Saturday for IAZ017-023>026.

Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ027-028-033>039-
044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097.

&&

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...REV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
359 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

IAZ017-025>028-036>039-010900-
Cerro Gordo-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-
Black Hawk-
359 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

There is an Enhanced to Moderate Risk of severe storms this
afternoon. Damaging winds and tornadoes are the primary concerns
with hail as a secondary threat. Storms will be moving quickly at
over 50 mph.

Strong west to northwest winds are expected tonight with gusts of
55 mph possible. Falling snow may also occur overnight and the
combination of snow and winds may restrict visibilities from time
to time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon.

IAZ015-016-023-024-033>035-010900-
Palo Alto-Hancock-Pocahontas-Humboldt-Sac-Calhoun-Webster-
359 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

Scattered thunderstorms remain possible today with a few stronger
storms this afternoon before ending.

Strong west winds are forecast by tonight with gusts over 50 mph
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is unlikely today.

IAZ047>050-059>062-072>075-083>086-094>097-010900-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-Poweshiek-Madison-
Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Decatur-Wayne-
Appanoose-Davis-
359 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

There is an Enhanced to Moderate Risk of severe storms this
afternoon. At this time, damaging winds and tornadoes are the
primary concerns with hail as a secondary threat. Storms will be
moving quickly at over 50 mph.

A very high grassland fire danger remains across the southern
half of Iowa, especially this afternoon into the early evening.
Any fires that occur may be difficult to control.

Very strong west to northwest winds are expected by later this
afternoon and persisting overnight. A Wind Advisory is in effect
for the area this afternoon and tonight. Please refer to the
National Weather Service website at weather.gov/desmoines for
further details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon.

IAZ044>046-057-058-070-071-081-082-092-093-010900-
Crawford-Carroll-Greene-Audubon-Guthrie-Cass-Adair-Adams-Union-
Taylor-Ringgold-
359 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. A few may
produce strong wind gusts before exiting the area.

A very high grassland fire danger remains across the southern
half of Iowa, especially this afternoon into the early evening.
Any fires that occur may be difficult to control.

Very strong west to northwest winds are expected by later this
afternoon and persisting overnight. A Wind Advisory is in effect
for the area this afternoon and tonight. Please refer to the
National Weather Service website at weather.gov/desmoines for
further details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible this afternoon.

IAZ004>007-010900-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-
359 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

Scattered thunderstorms remain possible today. A few storms may
have damaging wind gusts near the Interstate 35 corridor this
afternoon.

A combination of snow and strong winds are expected tonight
produce low visibilities. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect
for the area tonight. Please refer to the National Weather
Service website at weather.gov/desmoines for further details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed toward the Interstate 35 corridor
this afternoon.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
331 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0323 PM     HAIL             PELLA                   41.41N 92.92W
03/31/2023  E1.50 INCH       MARION             IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            VIA KNIA/KRLS.

&&

ANSORGE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
335 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             3 WNW AMES              42.03N 93.68W
03/31/2023  E1.00 INCH       STORY              IA   PUBLIC

            HAIL STARTED ABOUT 2:50PM AND LASTED UNTIL
            2:54PM. LARGEST HAILSTONES WERE ALMOST 1
            INCH IN DIAMETER. ACCUMULATED IN DRIFTS DUE
            TO STRONG WINDS FROM THE SOUTH. ALSO
            ACCUMULATED ON FLAT SURFACES.

&&

MP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
338 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 WSW PERRY             41.83N 94.16W
03/31/2023  M58 MPH          DALLAS             IA   AWOS

&&

DODSON