Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Des Moines, IA

712 
WWUS53 KDMX 072119
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
419 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

IAC099-157-072130-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-230507T2130Z/
Poweshiek IA-Jasper IA-
419 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN POWESHIEK AND CENTRAL JASPER COUNTIES...

At 419 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Kellogg, or 8
miles east of Newton, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Grinnell Regional Airport and Grinnell.

This includes Interstate 80 between mile markers 158 and 181.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4163 9319 4185 9321 4185 9273 4157 9274
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 268DEG 31KT 4172 9288 

HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Hagenhoff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
313 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Sunday/
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

Key Messages:

-Severe storms expected this evening into the overnight mainly
 southern half of the state.
-Quiet weather mid week with seasonable temperatures.
-Increase threat for precipitation late in the week.

Convection has continued to bubble for much of the morning into the
early afternoon along the instability gradient in central Iowa. Most
recently, an elevated cell has produced 2.5" hail near Carroll as it
rides along the instability gradient.  The forecast has many areas
of uncertainty with regards to placement and timing although there
is certainty in the fact the ample severe weather is expected this
evening into the overnight.  This storm should act to reinforce the
low level boundary near the I80 to Highway 30 corridor late this
afternoon with the boundary acting as a focus for convection.
Instability in southern Iowa where sun has been ample today has
risen to in excess of 3000 J/KG along with impressive mid level
lapse rates, especially towards western Iowa.  Certainly these lapse
rates helped in the large size of hail seen near Carroll and these
are expected to continue across the southern half of the state into
the evening.  Most CAMs output have storms developing around 5 to 6
pm near the boundary and intensifying quickly.  The initial storms
are expected to remain near the boundary and move nearly parallel
with large hail holding as a main threat. A narrow corridor of low
level instability and increasing effective SRH should provide a
for some threat of a few tornadoes in this corridor near the
boundary. In addition, some threat of heavy rainfall is expected
as storms move east along the boundary often over the same areas.

As the evening progresses, guidance continues to indicate a forward
moving organizing in Nebraska and racing east into southwest Iowa.
This convection is expected to move propagate in the strong
instability that will exist across southern Iowa into northern
Missouri by late evening into the early morning hours. Damaging
winds and a few tornadoes may also occur with this system as it
races east.  The heavy rain threat will continue as well as the
comma head likley moves over the same areas as the initial
convection.

The storms are expected to exit by Monday morning with increasing
subsidence in the wake of the storm providing relatively quiet
weather for much of the day. The overall quiet weather is expected
to continue for much of the work week with mild temperatures.  There
is some indication for an increasing threat of precipitation towards
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon/
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

Mostly VFR early but showers and thunderstorms become numerous
this evening into tonight. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to
expand over central Iowa during this time and persist into Monday
morning. Surface winds to be southeast early becoming northwest by
Monday morning.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION...Cogil
AVIATION...Cogil

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
337 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-082045-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-
Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-
Appanoose-Davis-
337 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

There is an enhanced threat of severe weather tonight. Large
hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes may all be possible at
times, with the greatest risk over southern and central Iowa.
Locally heavy rainfall is also expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Additional thunderstorm chances are forecast on Monday and at
intervals from Wednesday into next weekend, however, the overall
threat of severe weather appears low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

Dodson

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
321 PM CDT SUN MAY 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             3 NNW AMES              42.06N 93.65W
05/07/2023  E2.50 INCH       STORY              IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DODSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
327 PM CDT SUN MAY 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             1 N BOONE               42.07N 93.88W
05/07/2023  M0.75 INCH       BOONE              IA   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

MP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
337 PM CDT SUN MAY 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             2 NNW AMES              42.05N 93.65W
05/07/2023  M2.00 INCH       STORY              IA   PUBLIC

            1.0 TO 2.0 INCH HAIL.

&&

MP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
339 PM CDT SUN MAY 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             3 S MCCALLSBURG         42.12N 93.39W
05/07/2023  M1.00 INCH       STORY              IA   PUBLIC

            SUBMITTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

DODSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
343 PM CDT SUN MAY 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     HAIL             MAXWELL                 41.89N 93.40W
05/07/2023  M0.88 INCH       STORY              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
350 PM CDT SUN MAY 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0349 PM     HAIL             6 ESE GARWIN            42.08N 92.56W
05/07/2023  E1.50 INCH       TAMA               IA   PUBLIC

&&

DODSON