Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2023

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Dodge City, KS

May 9, 2023Pratt County, Stafford County, Kansas

NWS Dodge City, KS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 9, 2023, 6:43 PM CDT for Pratt County, Stafford County, Kansas. It was in force for 32 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: May 9, 2023, 6:43 PM CDT (23:43 UTC)
Expired: May 9, 2023, 7:15 PM CDT
In force: 32 min
Issued by: NWS Dodge City, KS
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.25 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Pratt County, KS, Stafford County, KS

The radar

The Wichita radar (KICT), 99 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
May 9, 6:44 PM CDT	HAIL 1.25	Stafford, KS	REPORT FROM MPING: HALF DOLLAR (1.25 IN.).

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 1 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 11.7 hours before the alert went out and 119 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2346 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -44 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 860 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 24 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 137 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 3.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

350 
WUUS53 KDDC 092343
SVRDDC
KSC151-185-100015-
/O.NEW.KDDC.SV.W.0031.230509T2343Z-230510T0015Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
643 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

The National Weather Service in Dodge City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southeastern Stafford County in south central Kansas...
  Northeastern Pratt County in south central Kansas...

* Until 715 PM CDT.

* At 643 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located very near Neola,
  moving southeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage 
           to roofs, siding, and trees.

* This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
  southeastern Stafford and northeastern Pratt Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3765 9847 3777 9874 3804 9858 3803 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 299DEG 18KT 3787 9853 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

AJOHNSON

2 follow-up statements

124 
WWUS53 KDDC 092355
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
655 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

KSC151-185-100015-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-230510T0015Z/
Stafford KS-Pratt KS-
655 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN STAFFORD AND NORTHEASTERN PRATT COUNTIES...

At 654 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Neola, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Stafford, Preston, Zenith and Neola. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3766 9847 3784 9867 3803 9855 3803 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 299DEG 18KT 3784 9846 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

AJOHNSON

406 
WWUS53 KDDC 100012
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
712 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

KSC151-185-100021-
/O.EXP.KDDC.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-230510T0015Z/
Stafford KS-Pratt KS-
712 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN STAFFORD AND
NORTHEASTERN PRATT COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 715 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3766 9847 3784 9867 3803 9855 3803 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 299DEG 18KT 3780 9838 

$$

AJOHNSON

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 9, 4:47 PM CDT, 1 hour 56 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 9, 4:47 PM CDT, 1 hour 56 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
447 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

The main concern in the short term is storm chances this evening
along an outflow boundary from rain cooled air. This boundary is
still sagging southward and should stall from Hodgeman County
into Pratt County and set the stage for a few severe storms.
Initiation is also possible along the dry line west of Dodge City.
Large hail is possible with these storms. A deep upper level
trough will approach the high plains Wednesday night.
Thunderstorms will push into far western Kansas late Wednesday
night into early Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

As the upper low continues to move east, thunderstorms will
continue to develop Thursday morning and these will likely be
severe with large hail.Given the shear profile veering from
southeast at the surface to southerly and even south-
southeasterly at 500mb, any tornadoes would likely be moving
northward instead of the traditional northeastward movement. In
the afternoon, the upper level cold pool will be in place and
overspread the moist layer, leading to another round of
thunderstorms, some severe and possibly tornadic. The corridor
most favored for severe storms in the early afternoon runs from
Meade County northwestward to Kearny, Finney and Scott Counties.

After Thursday, it appears a weak upper low is still advertised to
move northward out of the tropics across the southern high
plains, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms. These
should be mostly sub-severe to marginally severe given the lack
of vertical shear in a tropical environment. How far north this
precipitation gets is still in question as most of the models and
their ensembles keep the heaviest rain to the south and west. But
there is some potential for heavy rain across western Kansas
Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures will generally stay warm
through the period; but if rain materializes during the day
Sunday, then afternoon readings could be only be in the 60s to
mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 447 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

Radar imagery at 2140z depicted an intense supercell thunderstorm
near Larned, an outflow boundary westward to near Scott City, and
a dryline between DDC/GCK. Additional isolated convection is
expected this evening on these boundaries, but coverage will be
isolated, and as such kept the TAFs dry. Outside of convection,
elevated southeast winds will continue through 12z Wed. Included
LLWS in all TAFs after 06z Wed with a strong low level jet
expected. Consensus of short term models suggests IFR stratus at
HYS after 09z Wed, and this trend was accepted in the TAFs. VFR is
expected to prevail elsewhere through Wednesday. 18z NAM and
12z ARW both indicate the next round of scattered convection near
GCK/LBL after 21z Wed, and included VCTS/CB near the end of those
TAF periods.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  85  59  83 /  20  20  30  50
GCK  60  86  58  80 /  10  50  40  30
EHA  59  85  55  83 /  10  60  60  10
LBL  61  87  57  84 /  10  40  40  20
HYS  60  82  59  78 /  40  20  40  70
P28  62  85  61  80 /  40  20  30  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Turner

Hazardous weather outlook, May 9, 1:33 AM CDT, 17 hours 10 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
133 AM CDT Tue May 9 2023

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-101200-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
133 AM CDT Tue May 9 2023 /1233 AM MDT Tue May 9 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening.
Severe thunderstorms, should they develop, will be possible. Very large
hail (2 to 3 inches) and damaging winds are the main threats. There
is also a very small but non zero threat for an isolated tornado. The
best area for severe thunderstorms today and tonight should be mainly
east of Highway 283.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Scattered thunderstorms will continue across southwest Kansas Wednesday
and Thursday. A few of these thunderstorms may be severe. At this time
it appears that the main threats are very large hail and damaging winds.
A slightly more robust threat may exist Thursday with tornadoes possible
as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and tonight.

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 9, 6:01 PM CDT, 42 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
601 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0551 PM     HAIL             5 N SAINT JOHN          38.08N 98.76W
05/09/2023  E2.00 INCH       STAFFORD           KS   PUBLIC

&&

MR

Special weather statement, May 9, 6:04 PM CDT, 39 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
604 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

KSZ065-092345-
Pawnee KS-
604 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Pawnee
County through 645 PM CDT...

At 604 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm very
near Frizell, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Larned around 615 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3809 9893 3811 9931 3827 9925 3830 9903
      3826 9903 3826 9892
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 270DEG 25KT 3818 9919

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

AJOHNSON

Local storm report, May 9, 6:06 PM CDT, 37 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
606 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 PM     HAIL             LA CROSSE               38.54N 99.31W
05/09/2023  E0.88 INCH       RUSH               KS   PUBLIC

            PEAS AND A FEW LARGER REPORTED THROUGH
            SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

MR

Local storm report, May 9, 6:11 PM CDT, 32 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
611 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     HAIL             SAINT JOHN              38.00N 98.76W
05/09/2023  E1.75 INCH       STAFFORD           KS   PUBLIC

            REPORTED THOUGH SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

MR

Local storm report, May 9, 6:13 PM CDT, 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
613 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 PM     HAIL             SAINT JOHN              38.00N 98.76W
05/09/2023  E1.00 INCH       STAFFORD           KS   PUBLIC

            REPORTED THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

MR

Special weather statement, May 9, 6:30 PM CDT, 13 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
630 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

KSZ045-046-064-065-100015-
Hodgeman KS-Rush KS-Pawnee KS-Ness KS-
630 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Ness,
northeastern Hodgeman, northwestern Pawnee and southwestern Rush
Counties through 715 PM CDT...

At 630 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Burdett, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Nekoma.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3814 9953 3825 9969 3852 9943 3837 9915
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 226DEG 17KT 3829 9951

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

AJOHNSON

The office that day

Everything else NWS Dodge City, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 9, 6:10 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Scott	35 min
May 9, 6:28 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Lane, Scott	47 min
May 9, 11:01 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Ellis	59 min
May 9, 11:57 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Ellis	48 min
May 9, 1:41 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Rush	49 min
May 9, 2:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Ellis, Rush	47 min
May 9, 3:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	DDC	Rush	52 min
May 9, 3:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	DDC	Pawnee, Rush	54 min
May 9, 4:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	DDC	Pawnee, Stafford	63 min
May 9, 4:49 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Pawnee	26 min
May 9, 5:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	DDC	Edwards, Pawnee, Stafford	67 min
May 9, 5:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threat	DDC	Pratt, Stafford	61 min
May 9, 6:04 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Pawnee	41 min
May 9, 6:30 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Pawnee	45 min
May 9, 6:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Pratt, Stafford	43 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kansas, 2023 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.