Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2023

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Dodge City, KS

May 9, 2023Pratt County, Stafford County, Kansas

NWS Dodge City, KS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 9, 2023, 5:44 PM CDT for Pratt County, Stafford County, Kansas. It was in force for 61 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: May 9, 2023, 5:44 PM CDT (22:44 UTC)
Expired: May 9, 2023, 6:45 PM CDT
In force: 61 min
Issued by: NWS Dodge City, KS
Area: Storm-based polygon
Damage threat: Destructive
Hail: 1.5 in
Wind: 80.0 mph

Counties Pratt County, KS, Stafford County, KS

The radar

The Wichita radar (KICT), 104 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
May 9, 6:44 PM CDT	HAIL 1.25	Stafford, KS	REPORT FROM MPING: HALF DOLLAR (1.25 IN.).

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 60 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 10.7 hours before the alert went out and 116 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2346 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -44 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 860 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 24 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 137 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 3.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

638 
WUUS53 KDDC 092244
SVRDDC
KSC151-185-092345-
/O.NEW.KDDC.SV.W.0030.230509T2244Z-230509T2345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
544 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

The National Weather Service in Dodge City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southeastern Stafford County in south central Kansas...
  Northeastern Pratt County in south central Kansas...

* Until 645 PM CDT.

* At 543 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near St. John,
  moving southeast at 25 mph.

  THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR EASTERN STAFFORD AND FAR NORTHEAST 
  PRATT COUNTIES.

  HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
           shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect 
           considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. 
           Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

* This severe thunderstorm will be near...
  Hudson around 550 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this severe thunderstorm include
Stafford, Zenith and Neola.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3785 9879 3813 9865 3813 9847 3783 9847
      3782 9846 3776 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 298DEG 20KT 3803 9875 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH

$$

AJOHNSON

2 follow-up statements

623 
WWUS53 KDDC 092315
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
615 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

KSC151-185-092345-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-230509T2345Z/
Stafford KS-Pratt KS-
615 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN STAFFORD AND NORTHEASTERN PRATT COUNTIES...

At 615 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located very near Stafford,
moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
  Zenith and Neola.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3807 9868 3807 9847 3783 9847 3782 9846
      3776 9847 3785 9879
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 304DEG 14KT 3797 9860 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

AJOHNSON

719 
WWUS53 KDDC 092337
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
637 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

KSC151-185-092345-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-230509T2345Z/
Stafford KS-Pratt KS-
637 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN STAFFORD AND NORTHEASTERN PRATT COUNTIES...

At 636 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Zenith, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Stafford, Zenith and Neola. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3807 9847 3783 9847 3782 9846 3776 9847
      3783 9873 3807 9860
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 299DEG 18KT 3792 9851 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

AJOHNSON

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 9, 4:47 PM CDT, 57 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 9, 4:47 PM CDT, 57 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
447 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

The main concern in the short term is storm chances this evening
along an outflow boundary from rain cooled air. This boundary is
still sagging southward and should stall from Hodgeman County
into Pratt County and set the stage for a few severe storms.
Initiation is also possible along the dry line west of Dodge City.
Large hail is possible with these storms. A deep upper level
trough will approach the high plains Wednesday night.
Thunderstorms will push into far western Kansas late Wednesday
night into early Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

As the upper low continues to move east, thunderstorms will
continue to develop Thursday morning and these will likely be
severe with large hail.Given the shear profile veering from
southeast at the surface to southerly and even south-
southeasterly at 500mb, any tornadoes would likely be moving
northward instead of the traditional northeastward movement. In
the afternoon, the upper level cold pool will be in place and
overspread the moist layer, leading to another round of
thunderstorms, some severe and possibly tornadic. The corridor
most favored for severe storms in the early afternoon runs from
Meade County northwestward to Kearny, Finney and Scott Counties.

After Thursday, it appears a weak upper low is still advertised to
move northward out of the tropics across the southern high
plains, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms. These
should be mostly sub-severe to marginally severe given the lack
of vertical shear in a tropical environment. How far north this
precipitation gets is still in question as most of the models and
their ensembles keep the heaviest rain to the south and west. But
there is some potential for heavy rain across western Kansas
Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures will generally stay warm
through the period; but if rain materializes during the day
Sunday, then afternoon readings could be only be in the 60s to
mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 447 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

Radar imagery at 2140z depicted an intense supercell thunderstorm
near Larned, an outflow boundary westward to near Scott City, and
a dryline between DDC/GCK. Additional isolated convection is
expected this evening on these boundaries, but coverage will be
isolated, and as such kept the TAFs dry. Outside of convection,
elevated southeast winds will continue through 12z Wed. Included
LLWS in all TAFs after 06z Wed with a strong low level jet
expected. Consensus of short term models suggests IFR stratus at
HYS after 09z Wed, and this trend was accepted in the TAFs. VFR is
expected to prevail elsewhere through Wednesday. 18z NAM and
12z ARW both indicate the next round of scattered convection near
GCK/LBL after 21z Wed, and included VCTS/CB near the end of those
TAF periods.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  85  59  83 /  20  20  30  50
GCK  60  86  58  80 /  10  50  40  30
EHA  59  85  55  83 /  10  60  60  10
LBL  61  87  57  84 /  10  40  40  20
HYS  60  82  59  78 /  40  20  40  70
P28  62  85  61  80 /  40  20  30  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Turner

Hazardous weather outlook, May 9, 1:33 AM CDT, 16 hours 11 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
133 AM CDT Tue May 9 2023

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-101200-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
133 AM CDT Tue May 9 2023 /1233 AM MDT Tue May 9 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening.
Severe thunderstorms, should they develop, will be possible. Very large
hail (2 to 3 inches) and damaging winds are the main threats. There
is also a very small but non zero threat for an isolated tornado. The
best area for severe thunderstorms today and tonight should be mainly
east of Highway 283.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Scattered thunderstorms will continue across southwest Kansas Wednesday
and Thursday. A few of these thunderstorms may be severe. At this time
it appears that the main threats are very large hail and damaging winds.
A slightly more robust threat may exist Thursday with tornadoes possible
as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and tonight.

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 9, 4:33 PM CDT, 1 hour 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
433 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             5 N LARNED              38.26N 99.10W
05/09/2023  E1.00 INCH       PAWNEE             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MR

Local storm report, May 9, 4:48 PM CDT, 56 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
448 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0434 PM     HAIL             5 SE ASH VALLEY         38.26N 99.14W
05/09/2023  E2.00 INCH       PAWNEE             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JDF

Special weather statement, May 9, 4:49 PM CDT, 55 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
449 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

KSZ046-064-065-092215-
Hodgeman KS-Rush KS-Pawnee KS-
449 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Hodgeman, northwestern Pawnee and southern Rush Counties through 515
PM CDT...

At 449 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Nekoma, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Rush Center and Timken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3816 9943 3821 9963 3826 9959 3826 9958
      3827 9958 3851 9941 3845 9908
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 229DEG 27KT 3835 9944

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

AJOHNSON

Local storm report, May 9, 4:57 PM CDT, 47 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
457 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     HAIL             LARNED                  38.18N 99.10W
05/09/2023  E2.00 INCH       PAWNEE             KS   PUBLIC

&&

JDF

Local storm report, May 9, 5:15 PM CDT, 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
515 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             5 ESE ASH VALLEY        38.27N 99.14W
05/09/2023  E2.50 INCH       PAWNEE             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MR

Local storm report, May 9, 5:36 PM CDT, 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
536 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             LARNED                  38.19N 99.10W
05/09/2023  E2.75 INCH       PAWNEE             KS   PUBLIC

            REPORTED THOUGH SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

MR

The office that day

Everything else NWS Dodge City, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 9, 6:10 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Scott	35 min
May 9, 6:28 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Lane, Scott	47 min
May 9, 11:01 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Ellis	59 min
May 9, 11:57 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Ellis	48 min
May 9, 1:41 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Rush	49 min
May 9, 2:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Ellis, Rush	47 min
May 9, 3:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	DDC	Rush	52 min
May 9, 3:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	DDC	Pawnee, Rush	54 min
May 9, 4:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	DDC	Pawnee, Stafford	63 min
May 9, 4:49 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Pawnee	26 min
May 9, 5:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	DDC	Edwards, Pawnee, Stafford	67 min
May 9, 6:04 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Pawnee	41 min
May 9, 6:30 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Pawnee	45 min
May 9, 6:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Pratt, Stafford	32 min
May 9, 6:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Pratt, Stafford	43 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kansas, 2023 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.