Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
652 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and tomorrow)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

A stationary boundary exists today from central Kansas southwest to
the Texas panhandle. This front could have mesoscale impacts later
this evening. In the meantime, upslope flow behind the front will continue
this afternoon and evening, particularly for the high plains of Colorado
into western Kansas. As a result of this flow, afternoon storms are
expected to develop across the higher terrain of Colorado. These storms
will eventually start to move across the Kansas prairie mid to late
evening tonight. Expect storms to cross the state line in the 6 to
8 pm timeframe. A squall line of storms is expected by this evening
across western Kansas. Therefore, the main threat with this activity
will be intense convective outflow of 60 to 80 mph. It was interesting
that the RRFS has outflows of 90+ mph. It's a model, so not taking
it verbatim, but still interesting nonetheless the output is that high.
Forecast skew-t/log-p's show a mixed low level BL with plenty of DCAPE
forecast. With upscale growth in combination of the DCAPE, it is would
seem prudent that some seriously strong outflows will be possible this
evening across the FA. The second area of interest for another separate
area of storms is along and south of the front. Here, higher MUCAPE
will be possible in association with the higher dews. Directional shear
is high enough for supercells, although speed shear could be a bit
lacking. The main question for this second area of storms (roughly
SE of KDDC), is what storm mode will be and if storms will interact
with the front or not. If storms remain discrete supercells, the the
main threats would be very large hail and damaging winds. If storms
do interact with the front, then an isolated tornado may be possible
as well. Overall, have much higher confidence of the first area of
storms spreading across the FA then the second area. The front has
already moved fairly well south, so this may limit the potential for
the second area of storms versus the first. Otherwise, for the rest
of the short term, dry conditions are expected Sunday with near normal
temps.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

We will return back to a normal Summer time pattern Monday. A shortwave
ridge will build over the FA during this period. Highs should peak
into the 90s and the forecast should be storm-free. Shortwave ridging
should continue Tuesday as well with hot highs and dry conditions continuing.
On Wednesday, a weak shortwave will move across the area. This feature
could spark off storms during the evening. Opportunities for storms
will continue for the rest of the business week. Coverage will be widely
scattered/hit-or-miss type of activity. Temperatures should be close
to seasonal normal to finish out the rest of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

Widespread strong to severe convective outflow will imminently
impact the area terminals over the next 4 hours or so before a
eastward moving linear convection system exits into central Kansas
after dark. Some areas could see high end winds as well around 80
mph, with potential for hail with a few leading supercells. Heavy
rain rates will probably lead to 1-2 mi vsby and IFR ceilings for
short duration in the greatest rain rates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  86  62  93 /  90   0   0   0
GCK  55  87  60  93 /  90   0   0   0
EHA  53  87  58  95 /  70   0   0   0
LBL  55  88  60  96 /  90   0   0   0
HYS  58  86  62  95 /  80   0   0   0
P28  62  87  63  95 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
251 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-180800-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
251 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 /151 AM MDT Sat Jun 17 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing strong damaging winds of
70 mph, hail up to 4 inches and heavy rainfall will be possible
after 5pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Probability of hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Limited Spotter Activation may be required after 5pm south of a
Syracuse to Garden City to Dodge City to Pratt line.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
906 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 NNW Jetmore           38.10N 99.90W
06/17/2023  M67 MPH          Hodgeman           KS   Public

            Mesonet station KJTK1.

&&

AS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
907 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 PM     Hail             Cimarron                37.81N 100.35W
06/17/2023  E1.00 inch       Gray               KS   Public

            Reported through social media.

&&

MR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
908 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     11 SSE Satanta          37.30N 100.89W
06/17/2023  M64 MPH          Seward             KS   Mesonet

            Mesonet station SAUK1.

&&

AS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
914 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     Hail             6 SSE Ingalls           37.75N 100.42W
06/17/2023  E1.75 inch       Gray               KS   Public

            Reported through social media.

&&

MR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
919 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 N Copeland            37.60N 100.63W
06/17/2023                   Gray               KS   Public

            Tree down, photo. Reported through social
            media.

&&

MR