Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1147 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered thunderstorms associated with locally strong wind
gusts and heavy rain are possible today especially across the
eastern half of the Commonwealth. Additional thunderstorms are
forecast in spots during the afternoon and evening on Tuesday. A
spike in heat and humidity is forecast later this week with
some of the hottest temperatures of the summer so far expected
Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
Showers continue along I-83/I-81 corridor late this morning.
MRMS/IRIS data indicate a few spot amounts of 1-2" in the past
~3 hours. Latest CAMS still favor additional isolated to sct
convection developing through the afternoon focusing over the
eastern half to 1/3 of the CWA or generally either side of the
Susquehanna River. While vertical shear should remain modest
(<30kts), favorable BL lapse rates will support risk of strong
to marginally severe wind gusts. Localized flooding also remains
a concern especially in areas of low FFG. Rainfall rates will
be high enough to drop a quick 1-2" and if it falls in the
right spot could be problematic from a runoff perspective. SPC
and WPC have maintained a MRGL risk of severe storms (level 1/5)
and excessive rainfall (level 1/4) for the rest of today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Large scale subsidence behind the departing shortwave will lead
to clearing skies tonight with patchy valley fog likely based
on ensemble probability charts and the latest NAMNest.

Another shortwave is progged to dive Southeast and into the
base of an upper trough over PA on Tuesday, once again resulting
in scattered, mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

500mb heights and 850mb temps are progged to be a bit higher
Tuesday, supporting highs in the 80s over most of the forecast
area and near 90F in the Susq Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
All medium range guidance supports fair and increasingly hot
conditions Wednesday with moderate humidity, as ridging at the
surface and aloft build over PA.

Model guidance continues to suggest an increasing potential for
a heat wave late in the week, as the surface high passes off
the east coast to the vicinity of Bermuda, advecting hot and
increasingly humid air into the region. ECENS mean 850mb temps
surge to around 20C by Thursday and Friday, translating to
likely highs ranging from the upper 80s over the Allegheny
Plateau, to the mid 90s in the Susq Valley.

The chance of showers/tsra will be on the rise Friday PM across
the north into Sat across most of central PA as a cold front
approaches from the Grt Lks. However, there remains plenty of
model spread/forecast uncertainty with regards to how far south
the front gets next weekend. A more progressive front could
result in fair and more seasonable conditions, while a slower
fropa could cause heat/humidity and associated convection to
linger into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Patchy MVFR valley fog will be likely across the Central and
Western Mtns through 1230Z this morning.

Showers/storms look much more likely this afternoon/early
evening. There will be some isolated to scattered showers and
perhaps a brief TSRA this morning at Central and Eastern PA
airfields prior to CB development in the afternoon.

Still some uncertainty in exactly how far west thunderstorms
will develop, but the greatest chances nonetheless remain
farther east. Winds will veer to a southwesterly direction this
morning/afternoon across the Western half of PA and increase to
5-10 knots with some higher gusts near showers/storms. Southerly
winds should prevail across the Susq Valley and points east.

Outlook...

Tue-Thu...Isold, mainly afternoon and evening showers and
storms.

Fri-Sat...Greater chance of more scattered to numerous
showers/storms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Travis
AVIATION...Guseman/Martin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
1149 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023

PAZ006-012-018-019-025>028-034-035-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058-
251600-
Potter-Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-
Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Schuylkill-
1149 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts and heavy
rain are possible today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A spike in heat and humidity will result in an increased risk of
heat related illness with prolonged exposure Thursday through
Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ004-005-010-011-017-024-033-251600-
Warren-McKean-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-Cambria-Somerset-
1149 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts are
possible today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ036-056-057-059-063>066-251600-
Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
1149 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts and heavy
rain are possible today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A spike in heat and humidity will result in an increased risk of
heat related illness Wednesday through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

MRS

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