Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Cleveland, OH

868 
WGUS71 KCLE 240606
FFSCLE

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
206 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023

OHC035-093-103-153-240616-
/O.EXP.KCLE.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-230824T0615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cuyahoga OH-Lorain OH-Medina OH-Summit OH-
206 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 215 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING 
FOR LORAIN, SOUTHERN CUYAHOGA, NORTHERN MEDINA AND NORTHERN SUMMIT 
COUNTIES...

Flooding is ongoing across the area and the flash flood warning has 
been replaced with a flood warning. Please continue to heed 
remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM EDT Thursday for 
portions of Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

LAT...LON 4143 8235 4146 8220 4136 8196 4135 8139
      4114 8139 4121 8234

$$

Kahn

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
734 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

...00z TAF Aviation and Near Term Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north through the area into this evening
before becoming stationary. A series of low pressure waves will
move east along the front tonight through Thursday before the
front pushes south as a cold front by Friday. A secondary cold
front will push south across the area Saturday before high
pressure returns Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
700 pm update...
We have expanded the Flood Watch to include the counties around
the Cleveland metro area for tonight. We have been watching
radar trends showing the convection slowly making a drift
southwestward as the train of convection continues to backbuild
over Lake Erie into southern Ontario. It is shaping up to be a
busy evening and night with flash flooding potential increasing.

Previous discussion...
Will keep the discussion succinct with ongoing convection, but
will highlight the main concerns over the next 36 hours.

Excessive heat watch remains in effect and was expanded a tier
of counties eastward. Confidence is still too low for
warning/advisory decisions given the potential for convection
early Thursday keeping temperatures cooler. Most confident in
the I-75 corridor potentially reaching warning criteria with 107
to 110 degree heat indices Thursday afternoon. Much more
uncertain eastward, but will have a better idea on where to put
the warning/advisory once the convection manifests overnight.

Ongoing thunderstorms are pushing south through the area late
this afternoon/early this evening. Storms have been
strong/borderline severe along a strong instability gradient to
the west with a pocket of 30-40 kt effective bulk shear. This
should push south of the area over the next hour or two.

Very concerned for training thunderstorms with heavy rainfall
tonight somewhere across far northeast Ohio/northwest PA. Have
hoisted a Flood Watch for flash flooding to highlight this
potential. Uncertainty remains with the exact details/location
of the heavy rainfall axis, however the synoptic setup is very
favorable for flash flooding with northerly upper flow, an
increasing westerly low level jet normal to the surface warm
front/upper flow, strong moisture advection into the boundary,
and PWATs in the 99th percentile focused on this area. The main
concern for training, efficient thunderstorms is generally after
03Z through 12Z with the strengthening LLJ, however convection
is already lining up downstream of Lake Huron over southwest
Ontario, which looks focused to impact far NE OH/NW PA this
evening. Rainfall rate of at least 1 to 2 inches are expected
with higher rates possible, so thunderstorms that train over any
given area for a length of time have the potential to produces
prolific rainfall amounts with a high potential for flash
flooding to develop. Severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out
either with 40 kts of effective bulk shear, and instability
building eastward, although much of the activity will be
elevated overnight. Damaging winds and hail look to be the
primary threat at the time.

Convection should weaken early Thursday morning with a brief
lull in precip , but attention then turns to more convective
development later Thursday across the area. The setup for
Thursday afternoon is highly conditional with very little
confidence for the local area. If convection does develop over
or upstream of the area late Thursday, this activity will again
pose a threat for flooding and severe weather, but details will
likely remain uncertain until the overnight convection and
resultant outflow boundaries manifest over the local area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Showers and thunderstorms from Thursday's overnight convection may
linger across Northeast Ohio and Northwest PA at the beginning of
the short term period Friday morning and afternoon. Precipitation
chances will drop off as moist low/mid levels and upper level
support exit to the east. A cold front will move southward across
the area during the day Saturday. This front may provide enough
support for some isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop in
Saturday before high pressure builds in behind the cold front.

High temperatures will trend cooler but still near average on Friday
as they rise into the 80s with upper 70s across Northwest PA. Behind
the cold front on Saturday, highs will be in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Expect low temperatures to follow a similar pattern, mid to
upper 60s on Friday night dropping to the upper 50s to lower 60s on
Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
We'll undergo a pattern change as broad troughing will begin to take
shape over the eastern US by the start of the long term. There looks
to be a few shortwaves that will move along the deepening upper
trough through the middle of next week that we'll need to keep an
eye on. Otherwise, anticipate for below normal temperatures
generally in the mid to upper 70s for highs and mid 50s to lower 60s
for lows.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
The aviation forecast for this TAF period is very uncertain and
low confidence due to multiple rounds of convection TSRA
impacting NEOH and NWPA. For the next 6 hours, we expect the
main terminals to be impacting with this convection will be CLE,
CAK, YNG, and possibly MFD. ERI may escape with just -SHRA for
the near term. FDY and TOL will likely remain VFR and not
impacted this evening. Outside of convection, VFR conditions
will be expected. In and around convection, MVFR to IFR
reductions are expected with heavy downpours and lower ceilings.
Winds will be variable closer the the convection. Wind will
generally be out of the south-southwest 5 to 12 knots through
the period with occasional gusts up to 20 knots during the
midday and afternoon hours.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday
night. Additional non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms
Friday into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
A warm front will gradually progress east across Lake Erie Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday. Southerly to southeasterly flow 10 to 15
knots ahead of the warm front will become southwesterly at 15 to 20
knots by Thursday morning, generating waves 1-3 feet. However,
conditions should remain below small craft advisory criteria.
Anticipate for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms across
Lake Erie now through Friday along and ahead of the warm front.

After the front passes on Friday morning, winds turn onshore and
remain generally below 10 knots through Saturday evening. A cold
front will cross south on Saturday and lead to northeasterly winds
to briefly increase to 10-15 knots. High pressure will build in from
the north behind the front and allow for winds to return below 10
knots by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027-028-036-037.
     Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OHZ010>014-020>023-
     033-089.
PA...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Griffin
SHORT TERM...Iverson
LONG TERM...Iverson
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...Iverson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
641 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027-028-036-037-242245-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Wyandot-
Crawford-Marion-Morrow-
641 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio and
northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible overnight. Storms may produce
damaging wind gusts, large hail, and locally heavy rain and/or
localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Excessive Heat Watch.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible on Thursday. Storms may
produce damaging wind gusts, large hail, and locally heavy rain
and/or localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ029>032-038-047-242245-
Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Holmes-Knox-
641 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio and
northeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms with the potential for damaging wind gusts
and heavy rainfall that may produce localized flooding are possible
this evening through the overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible again on Thursday. Storms may
produce damaging wind gusts, large hail, and locally heavy rain
and/or localized flooding.

Heat index values may approach 100 degrees on Thursday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

OHZ010>014-020>023-033-089-PAZ001>003-242245-
Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Medina-Summit-Portage-
Trumbull-Mahoning-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
Crawford-
641 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible again on Thursday. Storms may
produce damaging wind gusts, large hail, and locally heavy rain
and/or localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-242245-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
641 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms with the potential for damaging wind gusts
and heavy rainfall that may produce localized flooding are possible
this evening through the overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible again on Thursday. Storms may
produce damaging wind gusts, large hail, and locally heavy rain
and/or localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
845 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     Flash Flood      1 SW Wickliffe          41.60N 81.48W
08/23/2023                   Lake               OH   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Shoregate towers has significant structural
            collapse. Fire official presuming this a
            result of the water collection on the top of
            their parking garage.

&&

mg

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
852 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0851 PM     Flash Flood      1 NNW Willowick         41.64N 81.47W
08/23/2023                   Lake               OH   Law Enforcement

            The area of Lakeshore Blvd and Vine Street
            is closed due to flash flooding.

&&

mg

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
856 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0854 PM     Flash Flood      3 E Lakewood            41.48N 81.75W
08/23/2023                   Cuyahoga           OH   Law Enforcement

            Multiple roads becoming flooded and
            impassable on the west of the Cleveland.
            Multiple cars stranded. Closing the area of
            Clifton Road and Lake Ave due to flash
            flooding.

&&

mg

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
900 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0859 PM     Flash Flood      3 WNW Cleveland         41.49N 81.73W
08/23/2023                   Cuyahoga           OH   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Several cars stranded in flood waters on the
            Shoreway blvd.

&&

mg

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
902 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0848 PM     Hail             1 NNE Lorain            41.45N 82.18W
08/23/2023  E1.00 inch       Lorain             OH   Public

            picture from social media of quarter size
            hail.

&&

mg

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
907 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     Flash Flood      1 SSW Lakewood          41.47N 81.81W
08/23/2023                   Cuyahoga           OH   Amateur Radio

            I-90 near the McKinley Exit closed in both
            directions by public safety due to
            considerable flooding on the interstate.

&&

mg