Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Cleveland, OH

378 
WGUS71 KCLE 240258
FFSCLE

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1058 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

OHC035-085-240545-
/O.CON.KCLE.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-230824T0545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cuyahoga OH-Lake OH-
1058 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 AM EDT THURSDAY 
FOR NORTHEASTERN CUYAHOGA AND SOUTHWESTERN LAKE COUNTIES...

At 1058 PM EDT, Local law enforcement reported considerable flooding 
in Willoughby and Wickliffe due to thunderstorms that produced heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 3.5 inches of rain have 
fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are possible in the 
warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Law enforcement reported.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Cleveland, Painesville, Willowick, Euclid, Mentor, Cleveland 
  Heights, Willoughby, Eastlake, Timberlake, Lakeline, South Euclid, 
  Mayfield Heights, East Cleveland, Lyndhurst, Wickliffe, Richmond 
  Heights, Willoughby Hills, Highland Heights, Mentor-On-The-Lake 
  and Kirtland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 4156 8139 4154 8139 4153 8139 4151 8142
      4151 8165 4153 8167 4172 8140 4172 8135
      4173 8135 4173 8132 4173 8129 4164 8129
      4162 8130 4157 8135 4157 8139

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

Clark

628 
WGUS71 KCLE 240543
FFSCLE

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
143 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023

OHC035-085-240553-
/O.EXP.KCLE.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-230824T0545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cuyahoga OH-Lake OH-
143 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING AT 145 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR 
NORTHEASTERN CUYAHOGA AND SOUTHWESTERN LAKE COUNTIES HAS BEEN 
REPLACED WITH A FLOOD WARNING...

LAT...LON 4156 8139 4154 8139 4153 8139 4151 8142
      4151 8165 4153 8167 4172 8140 4172 8135
      4173 8135 4173 8132 4173 8129 4164 8129
      4162 8130 4157 8135 4157 8139

$$

Kahn

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
734 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

...00z TAF Aviation and Near Term Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north through the area into this evening
before becoming stationary. A series of low pressure waves will
move east along the front tonight through Thursday before the
front pushes south as a cold front by Friday. A secondary cold
front will push south across the area Saturday before high
pressure returns Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
700 pm update...
We have expanded the Flood Watch to include the counties around
the Cleveland metro area for tonight. We have been watching
radar trends showing the convection slowly making a drift
southwestward as the train of convection continues to backbuild
over Lake Erie into southern Ontario. It is shaping up to be a
busy evening and night with flash flooding potential increasing.

Previous discussion...
Will keep the discussion succinct with ongoing convection, but
will highlight the main concerns over the next 36 hours.

Excessive heat watch remains in effect and was expanded a tier
of counties eastward. Confidence is still too low for
warning/advisory decisions given the potential for convection
early Thursday keeping temperatures cooler. Most confident in
the I-75 corridor potentially reaching warning criteria with 107
to 110 degree heat indices Thursday afternoon. Much more
uncertain eastward, but will have a better idea on where to put
the warning/advisory once the convection manifests overnight.

Ongoing thunderstorms are pushing south through the area late
this afternoon/early this evening. Storms have been
strong/borderline severe along a strong instability gradient to
the west with a pocket of 30-40 kt effective bulk shear. This
should push south of the area over the next hour or two.

Very concerned for training thunderstorms with heavy rainfall
tonight somewhere across far northeast Ohio/northwest PA. Have
hoisted a Flood Watch for flash flooding to highlight this
potential. Uncertainty remains with the exact details/location
of the heavy rainfall axis, however the synoptic setup is very
favorable for flash flooding with northerly upper flow, an
increasing westerly low level jet normal to the surface warm
front/upper flow, strong moisture advection into the boundary,
and PWATs in the 99th percentile focused on this area. The main
concern for training, efficient thunderstorms is generally after
03Z through 12Z with the strengthening LLJ, however convection
is already lining up downstream of Lake Huron over southwest
Ontario, which looks focused to impact far NE OH/NW PA this
evening. Rainfall rate of at least 1 to 2 inches are expected
with higher rates possible, so thunderstorms that train over any
given area for a length of time have the potential to produces
prolific rainfall amounts with a high potential for flash
flooding to develop. Severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out
either with 40 kts of effective bulk shear, and instability
building eastward, although much of the activity will be
elevated overnight. Damaging winds and hail look to be the
primary threat at the time.

Convection should weaken early Thursday morning with a brief
lull in precip , but attention then turns to more convective
development later Thursday across the area. The setup for
Thursday afternoon is highly conditional with very little
confidence for the local area. If convection does develop over
or upstream of the area late Thursday, this activity will again
pose a threat for flooding and severe weather, but details will
likely remain uncertain until the overnight convection and
resultant outflow boundaries manifest over the local area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Showers and thunderstorms from Thursday's overnight convection may
linger across Northeast Ohio and Northwest PA at the beginning of
the short term period Friday morning and afternoon. Precipitation
chances will drop off as moist low/mid levels and upper level
support exit to the east. A cold front will move southward across
the area during the day Saturday. This front may provide enough
support for some isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop in
Saturday before high pressure builds in behind the cold front.

High temperatures will trend cooler but still near average on Friday
as they rise into the 80s with upper 70s across Northwest PA. Behind
the cold front on Saturday, highs will be in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Expect low temperatures to follow a similar pattern, mid to
upper 60s on Friday night dropping to the upper 50s to lower 60s on
Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
We'll undergo a pattern change as broad troughing will begin to take
shape over the eastern US by the start of the long term. There looks
to be a few shortwaves that will move along the deepening upper
trough through the middle of next week that we'll need to keep an
eye on. Otherwise, anticipate for below normal temperatures
generally in the mid to upper 70s for highs and mid 50s to lower 60s
for lows.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
The aviation forecast for this TAF period is very uncertain and
low confidence due to multiple rounds of convection TSRA
impacting NEOH and NWPA. For the next 6 hours, we expect the
main terminals to be impacting with this convection will be CLE,
CAK, YNG, and possibly MFD. ERI may escape with just -SHRA for
the near term. FDY and TOL will likely remain VFR and not
impacted this evening. Outside of convection, VFR conditions
will be expected. In and around convection, MVFR to IFR
reductions are expected with heavy downpours and lower ceilings.
Winds will be variable closer the the convection. Wind will
generally be out of the south-southwest 5 to 12 knots through
the period with occasional gusts up to 20 knots during the
midday and afternoon hours.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday
night. Additional non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms
Friday into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
A warm front will gradually progress east across Lake Erie Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday. Southerly to southeasterly flow 10 to 15
knots ahead of the warm front will become southwesterly at 15 to 20
knots by Thursday morning, generating waves 1-3 feet. However,
conditions should remain below small craft advisory criteria.
Anticipate for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms across
Lake Erie now through Friday along and ahead of the warm front.

After the front passes on Friday morning, winds turn onshore and
remain generally below 10 knots through Saturday evening. A cold
front will cross south on Saturday and lead to northeasterly winds
to briefly increase to 10-15 knots. High pressure will build in from
the north behind the front and allow for winds to return below 10
knots by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027-028-036-037.
     Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OHZ010>014-020>023-
     033-089.
PA...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Griffin
SHORT TERM...Iverson
LONG TERM...Iverson
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...Iverson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
641 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027-028-036-037-242245-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Wyandot-
Crawford-Marion-Morrow-
641 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio and
northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible overnight. Storms may produce
damaging wind gusts, large hail, and locally heavy rain and/or
localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Excessive Heat Watch.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible on Thursday. Storms may
produce damaging wind gusts, large hail, and locally heavy rain
and/or localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ029>032-038-047-242245-
Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Holmes-Knox-
641 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio and
northeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms with the potential for damaging wind gusts
and heavy rainfall that may produce localized flooding are possible
this evening through the overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible again on Thursday. Storms may
produce damaging wind gusts, large hail, and locally heavy rain
and/or localized flooding.

Heat index values may approach 100 degrees on Thursday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

OHZ010>014-020>023-033-089-PAZ001>003-242245-
Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Medina-Summit-Portage-
Trumbull-Mahoning-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
Crawford-
641 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible again on Thursday. Storms may
produce damaging wind gusts, large hail, and locally heavy rain
and/or localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-242245-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
641 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms with the potential for damaging wind gusts
and heavy rainfall that may produce localized flooding are possible
this evening through the overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible again on Thursday. Storms may
produce damaging wind gusts, large hail, and locally heavy rain
and/or localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
632 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 NNW Sheffield Lake    41.51N 82.11W
08/23/2023  M35 MPH          LEZ145             OH   Buoy

            Sheffield Buoy 45204 reported a wind gust of
            35 knots.

&&

Zeigler

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
649 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     17 NE Marblehead        41.67N 82.45W
08/23/2023  M65 MPH          LEZ164             OH   Buoy

            Buoy 45005 reported a wind gust of 56 knots.

&&

Zeigler

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
750 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     Flash Flood      2 SW Painesville        41.71N 81.28W
08/23/2023                   Lake               OH   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Multiple roads flooded, some closed and
            impassable due to high water.

&&

mg

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
751 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     Rain             4 SSE Painesville       41.68N 81.21W
08/23/2023  M1.70 inch       Lake               OH   Public

            1.70 inches measured in less than 2 hours
            near Concord Township.

&&

mg

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
812 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 NNW Cleveland         41.53N 81.72W
08/23/2023  M40 MPH          LEZ146             OH   Buoy

            Cleveland crib bouy measured a 35 knot wind
            gust.

&&

mg

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
842 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     Flash Flood      1 SW Willoughby         41.64N 81.42W
08/23/2023                   Lake               OH   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Vine Street viaduct at Ben Hur is flooded
            with multiple vehicles stuck in the high
            water.

&&

mg