Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Columbia, SC

691 
WWUS52 KCAE 210054
SVSCAE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
854 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

GAC033-245-SCC003-009-011-063-075-210115-
/O.CON.KCAE.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-230721T0115Z/
Burke GA-Richmond GA-Barnwell SC-Bamberg SC-Lexington SC-Aiken SC-
Orangeburg SC-
854 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM EDT
FOR BURKE...SOUTHEASTERN RICHMOND...BARNWELL...NORTHWESTERN
BAMBERG...SOUTHWESTERN LEXINGTON...AIKEN AND NORTHWESTERN ORANGEBURG
COUNTIES...

At 853 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Ridge Spring to near Savannah River Site to near
Waynesboro, moving east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and powerlines.

Locations impacted include...
Aiken, Waynesboro, Barnwell, Denmark, Savannah River Site, Aiken
Mall, Plant Vogtle, Hephzibah, Williston, Blackville, New Ellenton,
Jackson, Sardis, Midville, Gough, Citizens Park, Barnwell State Park,
Alexander, Burke County Airport and McBean.

This includes Interstate 20 in South Carolina between mile markers 24
and 41.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection seek shelter inside a sturdy building and stay
away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3283 8230 3293 8227 3308 8229 3322 8223
      3332 8186 3388 8153 3372 8102 3370 8104
      3364 8099 3313 8123 3311 8137 3316 8154
      3310 8162 3303 8156 3292 8175 3295 8186
      3292 8206 3288 8213 3281 8215
TIME...MOT...LOC 0053Z 289DEG 51KT 3383 8163 3331 8163 3313 8200 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

BC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
758 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Monitoring the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms
this evening, especially in the CSRA and adjacent South Carolina
counties. Another hot and humid day is expected on Friday with
a few afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures fall back into the normal range this weekend as a
cold front sags into the Southeast providing support for
increased cloud cover and rain chances. Seasonable weather
expected for much of next week with near normal temperatures and
moisture over the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for much of the
southern and western CWA including the entire CSRA until 1am
Friday. We are currently monitoring a line of severe
thunderstorms in Georgia associated with an approaching MCS that
is capable of strong downburst winds. The environment ahead of
the thunderstorms suggests that they will likely maintain their
current intensity, at least for the next few hours. The area of
greatest concern this evening will be across the entire CSRA
and adjacent South Carolina counties. While damaging winds are
the primary threat, all convective hazards cannot be ruled out.
To the north of the convection, there is a large shield of
stratiform precipitation meaning much of the region should see
some rain this evening. Once the MCS clears the area, some
clearing is possible towards daybreak with overnight lows in the
lower to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Friday will be warm with highs a few degrees above normal.
850mb temperatures are progged be to be slightly warmer than the
previous day. Combined with downslope flow we should see highs
in the mid 90s once again. Models show some drier air impinging
on the northern FA during the afternoon keeping PWAT values
around 1.75 inches. Apart from a lee side trough there appears
to be little forcing for convection. Given the weak forcing and
drier airmass we expect only isolated to widely scattered
convection during the afternoon. Isolated damaging downburst
winds are possible if deep convection can develop due to mid-
level dry air leading to DCAPE values from 750 to 1000 J/kg.
Weak shortwave energy and elevated instability may allow for
storms to linger into the evening but convective activity
overall is expected to decrease overnight. Lows will be in the
low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front will drop into the Deep South this weekend as
upper level troughing amplifies over the eastern US. The stalled
frontal boundary will be near or over the forecast area through
early next week before becoming washed out. The boundary will
serve as the focus for diurnally driven convection each
afternoon. The highest PoPs will be favored across the southern
and eastern FA where moisture may be higher depending on the
positioning of the frontal boundary. Shortwave troughs will also
periodically round the base of the broader trough working to
enhance convective development through early next week.

From mid week through the end of the forecast period 500mb
height rises are favored with near normal atmospheric moisture.
Global ensembles suggest the forecast area may be under an upper
level weakness between two ridges. Near normal atmospheric
moisture and weak flow suggest a seasonable pattern of diurnally
driven airmass convection with near normal temperatures through
the remainder of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR conditions expected throughout the forecast period outside
of squall line thunderstorms moving through the CSRA this
evening.

Afternoon convection has generally waned or shifted east of the
terminals but a strong damaging squall line is moving into the
CSRA and should reach the AGS/DNL terminals during the 00z-02z
time frame. Expecting wind gusts exceeding 40 knots with the
storms and vsbys likely to drop to 1 mile or less. Not as
confident in storms impacting the CAE/CUB area but including a
tempo for storms 01z-03z but less winds expected. OGB should
experience the storms during the 02z-04z time frame and also get
stronger winds up to 40 knots gusts.

Winds expected to stay up overnight from the southwest around 5
to 8 knots which should limit fog concerns. Another disturbance
moves in shortly after midnight but confidence is more limited
that this will generate convection that will cause restrictions
at the terminals. Winds increase once again out of the west
late tomorrow morning to around 10 kts with some afternoon gusts
up to 20 knots possible.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms developing each afternoon with a cold front
approaching this weekend. Limited potential for early morning
stratus and fog this weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
457 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-
116-135>137-210900-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-Northern Lancaster-
Southern Lancaster-Northwestern Orangeburg-Central Orangeburg-
Southeastern Orangeburg-
457 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a Slight (2/5) risk for severe weather this afternoon and
evening with damaging winds being the main threat. Localized flooding
is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
549 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

SCZ038-202215-
Clarendon SC-
549 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Clarendon County through 615 PM EDT...

At 549 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Santee Cooper Regional Airport, or 9 miles southeast of
Manning, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Foreston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3370 8000 3351 8010 3362 8020 3374 8011
      3372 7998
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 305DEG 13KT 3363 8008

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

BC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Columbia SC
753 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Lincolnton              33.79N 82.48W
07/20/2023                   Lincoln            GA   Emergency Mngr

            Lincoln county emergency manager reported
            trees down in Lincolnton. Time estimated by
            radar.

&&

HC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
758 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

SCZ029-031-038-210045-
Clarendon SC-Sumter SC-Lee SC-
758 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central Lee,
northern Clarendon and central Sumter Counties through 845 PM EDT...

At 758 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Alcolu, or 10 miles east of South Sumter, moving east
at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sumter, Manning, South Sumter, Mulberry, Alcolu, Woods Bay State
Park, Millwood, Turbeville, Mayesville, Paxville, Oswego, Brogdon,
Lakewood, Privateer, Foreston, East Sumter, Gable and Shiloh.

This includes Interstate 95 between mile markers 118 and 143.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3382 7992 3381 7995 3377 7999 3372 7997
      3370 8000 3362 8003 3377 8047 3402 8033
      3399 7989 3395 7998 3388 7994 3389 7988
      3388 7988
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 290DEG 27KT 3388 8016

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Columbia SC
801 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 N Thomson             33.53N 82.51W
07/20/2023  M49 MPH          McDuffie           GA   AWOS

            Thomson-McDuffie county airport AWOS
            measured a peak wind gust of 49 mph.

&&

HC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Columbia SC
814 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 ENE Lincolnton        33.80N 82.45W
07/20/2023                   Lincoln            GA   Emergency Mngr

            Lincoln county emergency manager reported
            around a dozen trees down within a 2 mile
            radius of Lincolnton. Time estimated by
            radar.

&&

HC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Columbia SC
825 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 ENE Mccormick         33.91N 82.28W
07/20/2023                   McCormick          SC   Emergency Mngr

            McCormick county emergency manager reported
            widespread trees down across the county.

&&

HC