Winter Storm Watch 2, NWS Buffalo, NY

974 
WWUS41 KBUF 211734
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1234 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

NYZ007-008-220145-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0002.230223T0000Z-230223T2300Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
1234 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations in excess of 9 inches possible with light ice
  accumulations possible.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the Wednesday evening commute and the 
  morning and evening commutes on Thursday.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Begin needed preparations at home or with your vehicle. Travel
may become difficult, so plan accordingly.

&&

$$

NYZ006-220145-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0002.230222T2100Z-230223T2300Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
1234 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations in excess of 9 inches possible with ice  
  accumulations of around two tenths of an inch possible. The most
  snow is expected over northern portions of the county, 
  including the Tug Hill.

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact Wednesday evening commute and 
  the morning and evening commutes on Thursday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Begin needed preparations at home or with your vehicle. Travel
may become difficult, so plan accordingly.

&&

$$

623 
WWUS41 KBUF 211923
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
223 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

NYZ006-220330-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0002.230222T2100Z-230223T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.230222T2100Z-230223T2300Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
223 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
  4 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of around two tenths of an 
  inch.

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Wednesday to 6 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-013-014-220330-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.230222T2100Z-230223T2300Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Geneseo, 
and Canandaigua
223 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of up to 2 inches and ice accumulations of around two tenths 
  of an inch.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Livingston, and Ontario 
  counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Wednesday to 6 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ019>021-085-220330-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.230222T1700Z-230223T0300Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
223 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 10 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of up to 2 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of 
  an inch.

* WHERE...Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, Allegany, and Southern Erie 
  counties.

* WHEN...From noon to 10 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ010>012-220330-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.230222T2100Z-230223T2300Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-
Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, and Warsaw
223 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of up to 2 inches and ice accumulations of around three tenths 
  of an inch.

* WHERE...Northern Erie, Genesee, and Wyoming counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Wednesday to 6 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the 
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-220330-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.230222T2100Z-230223T2300Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, and Rochester
223 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of up to three tenths 
  of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, and Monroe counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Wednesday to 6 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the 
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-220330-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0002.230223T0000Z-230223T2300Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
223 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations in excess of 9 inches possible with up to two
  tenths of an inch of ice. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Begin needed preparations at home or with your vehicle. Travel
may become difficult, so plan accordingly.

&&

$$

845 
WWUS41 KBUF 220238
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
938 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

NYZ004>006-013-014-221100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.230222T2100Z-230223T2300Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, Geneseo, 
and Canandaigua
938 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY
TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of up to 2 inches and ice accumulations of around two tenths 
  of an inch.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Livingston, and 
  Ontario counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Wednesday to 6 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ019>021-085-221100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.230222T1700Z-230223T0300Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
938 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 10 PM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of up to 2 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of 
  an inch.

* WHERE...Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, Allegany, and Southern Erie 
  counties.

* WHEN...From noon to 10 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ010>012-221100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.230222T2100Z-230223T2300Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-
Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, and Warsaw
938 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY
TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of up to 2 inches and ice accumulations of around three tenths 
  of an inch.

* WHERE...Northern Erie, Genesee, and Wyoming counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Wednesday to 6 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be extremely difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-221100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.230222T2100Z-230223T2300Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, and Rochester
938 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY
TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of up to three tenths 
  of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, and Monroe counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Wednesday to 6 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be extremely difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-221100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0002.230223T0000Z-230223T2300Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
938 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and mixed precipitation possible. Total snow 
  accumulations in excess of 9 inches possible with up to two 
  tenths of an inch of ice. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Begin needed preparations at home or with your vehicle. Travel
may become difficult, so plan accordingly.

&&

$$

Apffel

221 
WWUS41 KBUF 220823
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
323 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

NYZ007-008-221800-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0002.230223T0000Z-230223T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0002.230223T0000Z-230223T2300Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
323 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 7 to 10 inches and ice accumulations of up to
  one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow and ice will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ004>006-014-221800-
/O.EXT.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.230222T2000Z-230223T2300Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, 
and Canandaigua
323 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
  3 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of one to two tenths of an 
  inch.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ019>021-085-221800-
/O.EXT.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.230222T1500Z-230223T0300Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
323 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
  1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an 
  inch.

* WHERE...Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, Allegany, and Southern Erie 
  counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ010>013-221800-
/O.EXT.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.230222T1800Z-230223T2300Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, and Geneseo
323 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
  2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of around three tenths of 
  an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, and Livingston 
  counties.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be extremely difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-221800-
/O.EXT.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.230222T1800Z-230223T2300Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, and Rochester
323 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
  3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of up to three tenths of an
  inch. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph near the Lake Ontario
  shoreline.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, and Monroe counties.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice and gusty winds. Travel could be extremely difficult. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
  commutes. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

JLA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
137 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region tonight. A cold front will
bring a round of widespread rain and wet snow showers as it crosses
Tuesday. Our attention will then turn to a large and complex storm
system that will generate widespread mixed precipitation and
potentially some accumulating ice from later Wednesday through
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A narrow surface ridge crossing New England will maintain fair
weather across the vast majority of the region overnight. A
compact, but dynamic clipper system will race across the
northern Great Lakes late. Warm advection ahead of the system
will bring about a non-diurnal temperature trend with overnight
lows occuring between the late evening and early overnight
hours, before giving way to rising temperatures overnight.

The clipper low will quickly slide east across Southern Ontario
Tuesday, while sending its cold front across the area during
the morning and early afternoon. Expect fairly widespread
showers to develop along the interface of the main height fall
gradient and attendant cold front boundary. The activity should
move through fairly quickly. Milder profiles ahead of the
boundary will allow the most of the precipitation to fall in the
form of rain showers, except for the higher terrain where some
mixed rain/snow or wet snow will be possible. This will be
especially true across the Tug Hill and the western Adirondack
foothills, where some slushy accumulations of an inch or two
will be possible.

Ensuing cold air advection behind the front will be accompanied
by a noteworthy strengthening of westerly winds Tuesday
afternoon. Improving post-frontal mixed layer depth will
capitalize on higher wind magnitude noted in the lowest 4-5k
feet, supporting afternoon westerly wind gusts upwards of 45
mph, perhaps even a bit higher northeast of Lake Erie and along
and inland from the south shore of Lake Ontario.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
...Impactful winter storm with snow, sleet and ice possible later
Wednesday into Thursday...

Narrow ridge of high pressure follows quickly on heels of low
pressure system exiting across New England. Winds will diminish
quickly along with a brief period of dry weather. Temperatures will
drop into the 20s under the ridge.

On Wednesday, weak lead wave running along mid-level baroclinic zone
in right entrance region of upper jet could produce light snow in
the morning, mainly western NY. Attention quickly turns to much
stronger shortwave currently currently closed off toward Baja
California. This wave quickly lifts northeast, reaching the Ohio
Valley late Wednesday afternoon with sfc low over western Ohio
Valley and sfc-H85 warm front lifting toward lower Great Lakes.
Deep, moist isentropic ascent atop the warm front along with strong
RRQ jet forcing will support a slug of heavy precipitation lifting
steadily across the region from southwest to northeast, maximizing
on Wednesday evening, with lighter precip filling in behind this
later on Wednesday night into Thursday morning as warm air advection
persists atop the warm front but with less favorable jet forcing.

As the heavier precip is occurring Wednesday evening, there will be
a sharp temp gradient across the region from southwest to northeast.
This is not just at the sfc, but also aloft. This will hold the key
as to what ptype ultimately occurs. Overall the scenario would
support mainly snow North Country, a transition zone of sleet and
freezing rain over much of western NY to the Finger Lakes with
enough low-level warming to result in plain rain over most of the
Southern Tier. The warm layer edges north through the night, so
these zones may start to shift north as well. One trend that is
emerging is a deep, cold layer below the warm air aloft which may
lead to more sleet than freezing rain in some locations. Where ptype
does remains freezing rain, significant ice accums could occur with
potentially over 0.25 inch of ice. Snow could be very heavy over the
North Country, so long as there is no disruption from warm layer
aloft.

It is a very messy and complicated scenario and there are model
differences with how much QPF occurs Wednesday night, in regard to
how far north the warm layer gets on Wednesday night and also how
cold, deep the freezing layer is below the warm layer aloft which
will impact whether freezing rain or sleet occurs. Seems pretty
certain that winter headlines (possible watches for some areas) will
be needed eventually, but for now this system and its multiple
hazards and impacts will remain mentioned in the HWO.

From this vantage point...the HIGHEST PROBABILITIES are for
advisories over the western counties with the greatest chance
for an actual winter storm watch being found across the North
Country. A further increase in confidence though will be needed
before any such headlines will be issued.

On Thursday, snow will continue across the North Country, but most
guidance indicates there will be mixing with sleet or freezing rain
as the warm layer gradually lifts north. Even as this occurs, low-
level cold air with sfc temps staying below freezing likely will
hold along immediate Lake Ontario shoreline from Rochester to the
west, so freezing rain, sleet could continue there. Elsewhere south
of Lake Ontario, ptype will mainly change to light rain. Temps in
the afternoon on Thursday will range from 20s across the North Country,
to the lower 30s near the Lake Ontario shore, to as warm as the 50s
over the Southern Tier. Caution should be advised with all these
details and specifics this far out as this is the forecast at this
time, so any shift in this sharp temp gradient will have big impact
on expected ptype. Main takeaway is to stay tuned as this forecast
is far from locked in at this point.

Late Thursday second shortwave trough, that should be noted is
currently digging south along the British Columbia coast, is
expected to lift from the central Plains to the Great Lakes while
flattening out. Associated sfc low quickly sweeps across Great Lakes
before crossing the northeast on Thursday night. As this low passes
by, colder air will charge in and switch any lingering mixed
precipitation or rain to snow in rather quick fashion. There are
differences in how far north the low tracks and this will determine
if strong westerly winds occur. That would be important where ptype
on Thursday remains frozen (Fzra, Pl, Sn) as any strong winds would
lead to possible downed tree limbs or power lines as colder temps
freeze up things further. Temps which start the evening still in the
50s over the Southern Tier will fall into the 20s all areas by late
Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Strong Canadian high pressure builds toward the lower Great Lakes
Friday. Flow around the high will send a shot of arctic air into the
region with H85 temps down to -17c to -20c. The northwest flow will
bring lake effect snow with some accums southeast of the lakes and
light snow showers elsewhere. This setup in terms of moisture and
cold air looks very similar to what occurred last Friday when some
light to moderate snow amounts fell across higher terrain southeast
of the lakes. Temperatures on Friday will remain steady mainly in
the teens for most of the area. This interlude of cold air and lake
effect is brief though as the Canadian high quickly shifts to the
east across the northeast and to New England shutting down the lake
response.

Pattern remains active for the weekend and beyond. Shortwave trough
dropping through downstream of plains ridge will bring a chance of
mainly snow showers at times during the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will be maintain at all area terminals overnight and
into the early morning hours.

Low pressure will pass by to our north today with its cold front
crossing the area with some rain and snow showers. While most of the
time we will see VFR conditions, there may be a few brief periods of
MVFR CIGS. Winds will also pick up 15-25 knots out of the west, with
gusts up to 35-40 knots.

Tonight...colder air will arrive behind the front with rain showers
transitioning over to all snow. Some lake effect snow showers will
be possible east of Lake Erie and Ontario. This may bring brief
reductions in CIGS and VSBYS at KJHW, and to a lesser extent at KART
as most snow shower activity will be south of the KART terminal.
All other terminals will likely see mainly VFR conditions.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Mainly MVFR with mainly snow developing during the
afternoon south of Lake Ontario.
Wednesday night and Thursday...MVFR/IFR with mixed precipitation.
Friday and Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A narrow ridge of high pressure will exit across New England
overnight and support a brief period of lighter winds and lower
waves before another area of low pressure will pass by to our
north with a stronger cold front on Tuesday. Freshening
southeasterlies and southerlies out ahead of the front will
quickly give way to stronger westerlies in its wake, with winds
likely increasing to around 30 knots on Lake Erie and possibly
to Gale Force on Lake Ontario. A Gale Watch remain in effect for
Lake Ontario for Tuesday afternoon and evening, with Small
Craft Advisories likely to eventually be needed elsewhere.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from 10 AM EST this morning through this evening
         for LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJR/TMA
NEAR TERM...AR/JJR/TMA
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...JLA/TMA
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...JJR/TMA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
428 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2023

NYZ001>006-010-011-019-085-210930-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Northern Erie-
Genesee-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
428 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

West winds may gust to 50 mph midday Tuesday through Tuesday afternoon,
especially on the lake plains and near Lake Ontario.

A strong storm system will bring a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet,
and snow later Wednesday into Thursday. Significant accumulation of
ice as well as several inches of wet snow is possible.

A very sharp temperature gradient is expected across the region from
south to north during this time, so there still remains a high
amount of uncertainty as to which locations across western and north
central New York will have the highest chances to see impactful ice
and snow accumulations.

Strong and gusty westerly winds are possible Thursday night as a
cold front sweeps across the region changing any wintry mix to snow.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-210930-
Jefferson-Lewis-
428 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A strong storm system will bring a wintry mix of freezing rain,
sleet, and snow later Wednesday into Thursday. Several inches of snow
are possible across the North Country along with some ice accumulation.
The greatest chance for heavy snow would occur Wednesday night into
early Thursday.

A very sharp temperature gradient is expected across the region from
south to north during this time, so there still remains a high
amount of uncertainty as to which locations across north central New
York will have the highest chances to see impactful ice and snow
accumulations.

Gusty winds are possible Thursday night as a cold front sweeps across
the region changing any wintry mix back to snow.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012>014-020-021-210930-
Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
428 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A strong storm system will bring a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet,
and snow later Wednesday into Thursday. Significant accumulation of
ice as well as several inches of wet snow is possible. The greatest
chance for wintry precipitation from the Southern Tier to the Finger
Lakes will occur on Wednesday night. Mixed precipitation is then expected
to switch to rain on Thursday.

A very sharp temperature gradient is expected across the region from
south to north during this time, so there remains a high amount of
uncertainty as to which locations across western and north central
New York will have the highest chances to see impactful ice and snow
accumulations.

Strong and gusty westerly winds are possible Thursday night as a
cold front sweeps across the region changing any wintry mix or rain
back to snow.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-210930-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
428 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042>045-062>065-210930-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
428 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2023

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

JLA