Gale Watch 3, NWS Buffalo, NY

074 
WHUS71 KBUF 220233
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
933 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

LOZ042-221045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-230222T0300Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-230222T0900Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0003.230222T2300Z-230223T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
933 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

...GALE WARNING IS REPLACED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY... 
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH 
THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, west winds to 30 knots 
  and waves 7 to 10 feet. For the Gale Watch, northeast winds to 
  35 knots and waves 11 to 15 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 4 AM EST Wednesday. 
  For the Gale Watch, from Wednesday evening through Thursday 
  morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ043-221045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-230222T0600Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-230222T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0003.230222T2300Z-230223T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
933 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

...GALE WARNING IS REPLACED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY... 
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH 
THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, northwest winds to 30 
  knots and waves 9 to 12 feet. For the Gale Watch, northeast 
  winds to 35 knots and waves 10 to 14 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 7 AM EST Wednesday. 
  For the Gale Watch, from Wednesday evening through Thursday 
  morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-221045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-230222T0600Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-230222T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
933 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

...GALE WARNING IS REPLACED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds to 30 knots and waves 12 to 16 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ062-221045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-230222T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0003.230222T2300Z-230223T1200Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
933 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Northeast winds to 35 knots and waves 12 to 16 feet 
  possible.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River 
  to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ063-221045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-230222T0600Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0003.230222T2300Z-230223T1200Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
933 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Northeast winds to 35 knots and waves 10 to 14 feet 
  possible.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach to 
  Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ064-065-220345-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-230222T0600Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
933 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Winds have dropped below gales.

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-220345-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-230222T0300Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
933 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds have diminished.


$$

LEZ040-041-220600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-230222T0600Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
933 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Apffel

858 
WHUS71 KBUF 220547
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1247 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

LEZ040-041-220700-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-230222T0600Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1247 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 1 AM EST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

$$

LOZ042-221400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-230222T0900Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0003.230222T2300Z-230223T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0006.230223T0000Z-230223T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1247 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY
THIS MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, northeast winds to 35 knots and 
  waves 11 to 15 feet expected. For the Small Craft Advisory, 
  northwest winds 10 to 20 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM 
  EST Thursday. For the Small Craft Advisory, until 4 AM EST 
  early this morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-221400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-230222T1200Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0003.230222T2300Z-230223T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0006.230223T0000Z-230223T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
1247 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, northeast winds to 35 knots and 
  waves 10 to 14 feet expected. For the Small Craft Advisory, 
  northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 8 to 11 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM 
  EST Thursday. For the Small Craft Advisory, until 7 AM EST 
  this morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ062-063-221400-
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0003.230222T2300Z-230223T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0006.230223T0000Z-230223T1200Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
1247 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds to 35 knots and waves 12 to 16 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-221200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-230222T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1247 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 10 to 13 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

JLA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
101 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area today bringing rain and snow
showers. Colder air filtering in behind the front will then allow
for some lake effect snow showers, although accumulations should be
minimal. A large and complex storm system will then bring a mixed
bag of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and even just plain rain
Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A fast moving clipper will continue moving east across Southern
Ontario and into Quebec this afternoon.  At the surface, there's a
weak semblance of a warm sector (Finger Lakes as of this writing)
ahead of a cold front with an embedded prefrontal trough. The cold
front even had a summer-like look earlier with cooling cloud tops
before thunder and lightning was observed near the NY/PA border. Any
precipitation amounts this afternoon should be minimal, (well) under
0.1", due to the fast nature of the frontal passage and associated
narrow convective bands.

The cold front will quickly move east across the Genesee Valley,
Finger Lakes, and into the Eastern Lake Ontario this afternoon, with
a drier and cooler air mass following the front.  A 40-50kt low
level wind field behind the front will partially mix down with some
gusts near 45 mph. Temperatures should peak just ahead of the front
then remain steady or slowly fall during the remainder of the
afternoon.

A few lake bands may try to form this evening as the air mass
continues to cool with time, but should also be relatively dry. Will
lower the threat for lake effect banding east of lake Ontario,
dropping the probability of measurable precipitation down a notch
(to 30-40%) and note only flurries east of Lake Erie. Otherwise, it
should be a quiet night for the region as a shortwave ridge moves
into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
...Winter Storm Watches issued for eastern Lake Ontario region
with additional headlines likely coming eventually...

On Wednesday, weak lead wave running along mid-level baroclinic zone
in right entrance region of upper jet could produce very light snow
in the morning, mainly western NY and near Lake Ontario. Attention
quickly turns to much stronger shortwave currently spinning over
Baja California. This wave quickly lifts northeast, reaching the
Ohio Valley late Wednesday afternoon with sfc low over western Ohio
Valley and strong sfc-H85 warm front lifting toward lower Great
Lakes. Deep, moist isentropic ascent atop the warm front along with
strong RRQ jet forcing will support a slug of heavy precipitation
(PWATS of over an inch or well above the 90th percentile for the
day) lifting steadily across the region from southwest to northeast,
maximizing on Wednesday evening, with lighter precip filling in
behind this later by Thursday as warm air advection persists atop
the warm front but with less favorable jet forcing.

As the heavier precip is occurring Wednesday night, there will be a
sharp temp gradient across the region from southwest to northeast.
This is not just at the sfc, but also aloft. This will hold the key
to ptypes, but unfortunately there are still *significant* model
differences in these thermal fields. Per coordination with WPC, have
discounted the very warm NAM model based model idea and instead
favored a middle of road ECMWF/GFS blend, more toward GFS which is a
nod toward continuity as well. Will say though, the much colder
ECMWF thermals are looking like they are on the outside looking in
with this system. Overall this scenario would support mainly snow
North Country, a transition zone of sleet and freezing rain over
much of western NY to the Finger Lakes with enough low-level warming
to result in plain rain over most of the Southern Tier though there
will be some freezing rain toward the NY/PA line late Wednesday
afternoon into early Wednesday evening before temperatures warm
above freezing.

The warm layer edges north through the night, so the different ptype
zones will shift north as well. Continue to see a deep, cold layer
below the warm air aloft which may lead to more sleet than freezing
rain in some locations, but that is very tough to pin down right
now. Forecast carries both ptypes for now based mainly on the warm
layer aloft and not as much on the cold wedge below. Where ptype is
mainly freezing rain, ice accums over 0.25 inch could occur. Even
with a "correction" factor included for the sleet idea, Niagara
frontier, including Buffalo and Rochester look to be in line to see
the greatest ice accumulations. Even for these areas a brief thump
of heavy snow could precede the ice. Farther north of this mixed
area the snow could be quite heavy given the copious moisture (H7
mixing ratios 4-6g/kg) ingested into this initial burst of heavy
precip. Currently have a swath of over 7 inches of snow forecast for
northern Oswego into much of Jefferson and Lewis counties. This is
where confidence is highest on exceeding warning criteria (for snow)
and thus after coordination with BTV, ALY and BGM, have issued a
winter storm watch for these areas. More headlines will be needed
eventually for the rest of our forecast area once the ptype can be
better pinned down. At this point, those will probably be advisory
for a wintry mix of ice and snow but cannot completely rule out a
possible warning. It is just a lower confidence proposition compared
to the areas where the watch was issued.

This remains a very messy and complicated scenario and as alluded to
above, there remain model differences especially now in how far
north the warm layer gets on Wednesday night and also how cold, deep
the freezing layer is below the warm layer aloft which will impact
whether freezing rain or sleet occurs.

On Thursday, snow will continue across the North Country, but most
guidance indicates there will be mixing with sleet or freezing rain
as the warm layer gradually lifts north. This is even the case with
the coldest guidance. Even as this occurs, low-level cold air with
sfc temps staying below freezing likely will hold along immediate
Lake Ontario shoreline from Rochester to the west, so freezing rain,
sleet could continue there. Elsewhere south of Lake Ontario, ptype
will be transiting to light rain. Temps in the afternoon on Thursday
will range from 20s across the North Country, to the lower 30s near
the Lake Ontario shore, to as warm as the 50s even near 60 over the
Southern Tier. Keep in mind, any re-orientation of this very sharp
temp gradient will greatly impact ptype on Thursday, so the main
takeaway is to stay tuned as this forecast is still far from locked
in at this point.

Late Thursday second shortwave trough, digging south off the west
coast today, is expected to lift from the central Plains to the
Great Lakes while flattening out. Associated sfc low quickly sweeps
across Great Lakes before crossing the northeast on Thursday night.
As this low passes by, colder air will charge in and switch any
lingering mixed precipitation or rain to snow in rather quick
fashion. There are differences in operational models and ensembles
in how far north the primary sfc low tracks and this will determine
if strong westerly winds occur. That would be important where ptype
on Thursday remains frozen (Fzra, Pl, Sn) as any strong winds would
lead to possible downed tree limbs or power lines as colder temps
freeze up things further. Temps which start the evening still in the
50s over the Southern Tier will plummet into the teens and 20s by
late Thursday night, coldest across the North Country.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Strong Canadian high pressure builds toward the lower Great Lakes
Friday. Flow around the high will send a shot of arctic air into the
region with 850 mb temperatures down to around -18C. The northwest
flow will bring lake effect snow with some accumulations southeast
of the lakes and light snow showers elsewhere. Friday will be a cold
day and windy day with high temperatures in the upper teens and 20s
south of Lake Ontario and only teens east of Lake Ontario, but wind
chills will be as cold as the single digits below zero. Lake snow
showers and winds will diminish Friday night as drier air builds in.
Continued very cold Friday night with sub zero temperatures across
the North Country. Single digits and teens elsewhere, with wind
chills values below zero and as cold as 20 below across parts of the
North Country.

Gradual temperature recovery over the weekend, although a shortwave
trough dropping through downstream of plains ridge will bring a
chance of mainly snow showers at times Saturday, but just to areas
east of Lake Ontario Sunday.

Stronger system arriving into Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday will
bring the potential for rain or mixed precipitation along with gusty
winds.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure will pass by to our north today, with its cold front
and accompanying rain and snow showers crossing the area. While most
of the time we will see VFR, there may be a few brief periods of
MVFR CIGS. Winds will also pick up to 15-25 knots out of the west,
with gusts to 35-40 knots.

Tonight...Colder air will arrive behind the front with some minor
lake effect clouds and snow/flurries.  However, most of the region
should see continued VFR.  Weather deteriorates after 18Z Wed.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Mainly MVFR with snow developing during the afternoon
south of Lake Ontario.
Wednesday night and Thursday...MVFR/IFR with mixed precipitation.
Friday and Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers.
Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will pass by to our north today sending a strong cold
front across the lakes. Southerly wind flow ahead of the front will
quickly give way to strong westerlies in its wake, with winds
increasing to around 30 knots on Lake Erie and Gale Force on Lake
Ontario. A Gale Warning has been issued for Lake Ontario for early
this afternoon through this evening, with Small Craft Advisories for
Lake Erie and the Niagara River.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
     afternoon for NYZ006.
     Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
     afternoon for NYZ007-008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ030.
         Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LOZ042-062.
         Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for LOZ043>045-
         063>065.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AR/Zaff
NEAR TERM...Zaff
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...AR/Zaff
MARINE...AR/Zaff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
413 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

NYZ001>005-010-011-019-085-220915-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
413 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

West winds may gust to 45 mph late this morning through this
afternoon, especially on the lake plains and near Lake Ontario.

A strong storm system will bring a wintry mix of freezing rain,
sleet and snow later Wednesday into Thursday. Significant ice
accumulations along with several inches of wet snow on Wednesday
night is possible.

A very sharp temperature gradient is expected across the region from
south to north during this time, so there still remains a high
amount of uncertainty as to which locations across western and north
central New York will have the highest chances to see impactful ice
and snow accumulations.

Strong and gusty westerly winds are possible Thursday night as a
cold front sweeps across the region changing any wintry mix to snow.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-220915-
Jefferson-Lewis-
413 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-220915-
Oswego-
413 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012>014-020-021-220915-
Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
413 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A strong storm system will bring a wintry mix of freezing rain,
sleet, and snow later Wednesday into Wednesday night, before
precipitation changes to rain by Thursday. Minor snow and ice
accumulations late Wednesday into Wednesday could result in slippery
travel.

A very sharp temperature gradient is expected across the region from
south to north during this time, so precipitation type and snow and
ice amounts could still change so stay tuned.

Strong and gusty westerly winds are possible Thursday night as a
cold front sweeps across the region changing any wintry mix or rain
back to snow.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-220915-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
413 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042-062-220915-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
413 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ043>045-063>065-220915-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
413 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

JLA