Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
301 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT MON AUG 7 2023

Deep westerly flow and a relatively low amplitude pattern is in
place over the Lower MS River Valley and the Southeast despite a mid-
level trough and associated surface low in place over Ontario
extending southwest into the Mid-South region. A surface front is
extending southwest through the Ohio Valley where it becomes
oriented more east to west across the Southern Plains while an
elongated but strong ridge remains in place over the Desert
Southwest. This setup is leading to a volatile weather pattern
across the eastern CONUS, and yet more chances for strong to severe
storms preceded by miserably hot temperatures across Central
Alabama. The Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat Warnings were verified
hours ago, and dewpoints show no interest in mixing lower than the
mid to upper 70s, so there's no question on the instability of the
airmass today. Mesoanalysis suggests a widespread area of SBCAPE
~5000 J/kg in place over Central Alabama as we wait for storms over
northern MS/AL to slowly propagate southward this afternoon as the
aforementioned front inches further south. Perhaps one component
that's separating the past couple of days from today is the current
presence of 40-50kt of mid-level flow over the Tennessee Valley
which will contribute to improved thunderstorm ventilation and an
even more favorable environment for strong to severe storms, hence
the Enhanced risk across our northeast. Storms today will be
robust and each one capable of producing damaging straight-line
winds of 60 to 70 mph, quarter size hail, frequent lightning, and
heavy downpours as they move generally west to east. The overall
corridor of thunderstorms will drift southward with time,
attendant to the front, but should gradually lose intensity and
coverage this evening as they drift towards the southern half of
the area.

Other than a few lingering showers and storms in the south, most
areas will be dry by midnight with lows ranging from the upper 60s
north to mid 70s south. As we've already seen several times this
summer, the front will stall east to west, basically bisecting
Central Alabama across the middle. Therefore, tomorrow's focus for
storms will be across the southern two-thirds of the area. Most of
the 12Z CAMs show another round of storms developing upstream and
tracking through Mississippi and across our south as early as late
tomorrow morning through the afternoon. With the warmest, unstable
air continuing to pool south of the front, storms tomorrow could,
once again, carry a risk for damaging winds. Another Heat Advisory
may be needed tomorrow for the counties along and south of I-85, but
this depends on the earlier thunderstorm timing which could begin as
early as 10 AM across the west. Otherwise, most areas north of
I-85 will see highs in the mid to upper 80s.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT MON AUG 7 2023

No significant changes in the upper flow pattern through Friday
with the 5900-5920 meter 500Mb height contour staying close to
the I-20 corridor. Several upper level impulses will track
southeast into Alabama along the eastern side of an upper high
centered over Texas, so above normal rain chances will continue.
Height rises over the weekend could bring warmer surface
temperatures and higher heat indices into the area.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT MON AUG 7 2023

Another round of TSRA is expected this afternoon as a front drifts
southward across the Tennessee Valley. Storms today will be strong
and will be accompanied by strong winds and perhaps hail. Convection
should mostly affect northern terminals this afternoon, but may
impact MGM/TOI this evening, although coverage is expected to be
decreasing by that point. The front will situate across Central
Alabama tomorrow, and additional TSRA may begin redeveloping towards
the end of this forecast period, mainly near TCL. Sfc winds will
remain out of the west with 20-25kt gusts this afternoon, then 3 to
5 kts overnight.

86/Martin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms into the evening hours, some
severe with damaging wind gusts. A weak cool front will bring
cooler daytime temperatures to the area on Tuesday, with highs in
the mid to upper 80s north of I-85 and lower 90s south of I-85.
Rain chances will remain high on Tuesday as an upper impulse rides
eastward along the stalled out frontal boundary. Min RH values on
Tuesday will be 55-75% with westerly 20 foot winds at 6-8 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     68  87  67  87 /  40  40  10  70
Anniston    70  87  69  88 /  50  50  10  60
Birmingham  72  86  71  88 /  50  60  10  70
Tuscaloosa  73  86  71  88 /  50  60  10  60
Calera      73  87  72  88 /  50  60  10  60
Auburn      74  88  72  87 /  60  60  20  60
Montgomery  75  92  72  92 /  40  70  10  60
Troy        75  94  72  92 /  20  70  20  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Clay-Cleburne-Etowah-Marion-
Randolph-St. Clair-Winston.

Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for the
following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Chambers-
Chilton-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-
Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Russell-
Shelby-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker.

&&

SHORT TERM...86
LONG TERM....40
AVIATION...58/rose

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
409 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023

ALZ011>015-017>050-081215-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
409 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are possible across Central Alabama today,
mainly this afternoon and evening. Storms will pose a threat of
damaging wind gusts and hail up to quarter size.

Heat indices are expected to range from 105 to 115 degrees across
Central Alabama today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across Central Alabama
on Tuesday and Wednesday. Storms will pose a threat of damaging wind
gusts.

Heat indices could approach 105 degrees across southern portions of
Central Alabama each afternoon Tuesday through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
through Wednesday.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>