Severe Thunderstorm Warning 341, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
108 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 108 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2023

The flow pattern aloft has flattened more over the past 24 hours
or so with broad ridging centered over far southern New Mexico. An
upper low was analyzed over Western Iowa while a few shortwaves
were moving east, one to our northeast over the Southern
Appalachians with a stronger impulse over Eastern Arkansas. A weak
surface boundary extended from near Shreveport, LA northeast to
near Huntsville with the diffuse remnants of a boundary across
northern Georgia. Shower and thunderstorm activity impacted
portions of our far northeast counties earlier this morning with
isolated activity left in its wake. A few strong storms have
formed across portions of Cleburne and Pike Counties over the past
hour or so. This activity is developing within a shallow cumulus
field based upon satellite imagery, likely representative of a
boundary that is moving east across our east and southeast
counties. Heavier shower and thunderstorm activity is continuing
to grow into a more linear configuration across North-Central and
Northeast Mississippi ahead of the mid-level impulse over Eastern
Arkansas. This activity will impact portions of our northwest
counties from 1 to 3 pm generally. Additional convective activity
is expected across the northern and central counties due to high
levels of instability resulting from temperatures in the 90s and
dew points remaining in the mid to upper 70s.

This afternoon.

* Dangerous heat indices will continue to affect the southwestern
  half of the area with all counties experiencing at least heat
  index values up to 105 degrees.

* Very high downburst conditions will favor strong convective wind
  gusts from the heavier activity this afternoon and evening. A
  severe thunderstorm watch may potentially be issued soon for
  portions of the area this afternoon into the evening hours.

Expect a well-defined shortwave to continue to move from the Mid-
South to over the Tennessee Valley Region this afternoon and
evening. Remnant surface boundaries along with new thunderstorm
outflows will provide several focal points for surface
convergence, which given the strong instability, will support
rapid development of shower and thunderstorm activity through the
afternoon. Chances for showers and storms will be greatest across
the northern and eastern portions of the area due to orographic
effects along with the surface boundary and outflow interaction.
Winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph. Highs will range from mid
90s northeast to the upper 90s south and west.

Tonight.

A weakness aloft will form overnight as an impulse continues to
move east over the northern portion of the state while the overall
broad ridging in the mid levels flattens further. A surface low
will become more defined across the Midwest as a cold front
advances further southeast across the Plains while surface high
pressure remains over the Southeast Gulf of Mexico.

Expect a gradual decrease in shower and thunderstorm activity
through the evening with fair skies over the southwest and south.
More clouds will linger across the north and central with isolated
showers and a few storms potentially persisting due to the
shortwave disturbance aloft. Winds will be from the southwest at
3-6 mph. Lows will range from near 70 far northeast to readings in
the mid 70s west and south.

Monday.

A zonal flow will prevail aloft with another shortwave progged to
move toward the area by the afternoon hours. Surface low pressure
will move northeast into the Northern Ohio River Valley while a
cold front moves further southeast, extending across the Tennessee
Valley southwest to over the Arklatex region. Little change in
the overall environment locally will result in continued dry air
aloft with strong surface-based instability being realized toward
midday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will be greatest across
the far northern counties early in the morning, then pushing
southeast toward the Interstate 22/Interstate 20 corridors just
after midday then expanding further south through the afternoon.
Damaging winds and large hail will be the main risks from
thunderstorm activity Monday. Heat index values over 105 degrees
are expected across the southern half of the forecast area before
showers and storms are expected to affect the area. Winds will be
from the southwest at 5-10 mph. Highs will range from the mid 90s
north to near the century mark far south.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT SUN AUG 6 2023

A front will be draped across the area Tuesday, slowly pushing
southward and/or stalling across the southern half of the area.
Locations near and south of the front will see the best rain
chances, mainly during the afternoon as a shortwave crosses the
area. With CAPE values greater than 2000J/kg and shear of 25-30kts
near the front, a few strong to severe storms are possible. Behind
the front, drier/cooler air will arrive. Highs will range from the
mid 80s northwest to mid 90s southeast. Heat indices near 105F
degrees will be confined to the southeastern counties.

Within a more zonal upper level pattern, a shortwave and associated
surface low will move across the Plains and toward the Midwest
Wednesday. With low level winds becoming southwesterly, the
previously mentioned front will lift back northward through the day.
Within the warm sector, expect showers and storms to develop. Weaker
wind fields should limit convective growth initially, but will need
to watch for organized storms during the afternoon and evening,
depending on timing of the shortwave. For now will not mention any
threats in the HWO. The shortwave lifts to the northeast, leaving
northwesterly flow aloft and southwesterly to westerly low level
flow. A series of upper level impulses, increased wind fields, and
PWs around 2 inches will allow for rain chances most periods through
the end of the week. Highs will generally be in the low to mid 90s,
with heat indices around 105F each day for at least a portion of the
area.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2023

Scattered cumulus will continue develop over most of the
terminals this afternoon and persist into the early evening hours.
Ongoing TSRA will persist at and around TOI through 19z. The
northern sites will have better convective potential from 21z at
TCL/BHM/EET and from 22z at ASN/ANB through 01z. Convection will
be capable of producing frequent lightning and strong winds due to
favorable downburst conditions aloft. Expect activity to decrease
overnight with best chances for lingering activity near
BHM/ASN/TOI. More showers and storms are forecast to develop from
late morning through the end of this period on Monday across the
northern portion of the area, potentially affecting BHM/ASN/ANB
before 18z.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot and humid conditions continue across Central Alabama today.
This will feature westerly 20 ft. winds at 10 mph or less and
minimum RH values in the 50-60% range. Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms are also forecast this afternoon and evening with
the potential for severe thunderstorms. Additional chances for
thunderstorms are forecast for Monday with continued hot and humid
conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  94  69  89 /  70  60  40  30
Anniston    72  95  72  89 /  70  60  40  30
Birmingham  74  94  73  89 /  60  50  40  40
Tuscaloosa  75  95  74  89 /  50  30  40  50
Calera      73  95  74  90 /  60  30  40  50
Auburn      74  95  75  89 /  70  30  30  50
Montgomery  75  99  77  93 /  50  20  30  50
Troy        75  99  77  94 /  50  10  20  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Monday for the following counties:
Blount-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-Clay-Cleburne-Etowah-Lee-Marion-
Randolph-Russell-St. Clair-Talladega-Winston.

Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for the
following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Chilton-Coosa-
Dallas-Elmore-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lowndes-Macon-
Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Shelby-Sumter-Tallapoosa-
Tuscaloosa-Walker.

Heat Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CDT Monday for the
following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Chilton-Coosa-
Dallas-Elmore-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lowndes-Macon-
Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Shelby-Sumter-Tallapoosa-
Tuscaloosa-Walker.

&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
414 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023

ALZ011>015-017>050-071215-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
414 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Heat indices are forecast to reach or exceed 105 degrees across
much of Central Alabama today. Locations across the Black Belt are
forecast to experience heat index values of 110 degrees.

Severe thunderstorms are possible across Central Alabama this
afternoon and evening. Storms will pose a threat of damaging wind
gusts and hail up to quarter size.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Severe thunderstorms are possible across Central Alabama on Monday
and Tuesday, mainly during the afternoon and evening. Storms will
pose a threat of damaging wind gusts and large hail.

Heat indices are forecast to reach or exceed 105 degrees across
all of Central Alabama on Monday. Heat indices could approach 105
degrees for areas south each afternoon through Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
today through Tuesday.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
226 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0159 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Bluff                   33.82N 87.91W
08/06/2023                   Fayette            AL   Emergency Mngr

            Trees down on Highway 107 northwest of
            Fayette.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
227 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023

ALZ028-029-037-038-062000-
Tallapoosa AL-Clay AL-Randolph AL-Chambers AL-
227 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Randolph, northeastern Tallapoosa, northwestern Chambers and
southeastern Clay Counties through 300 PM CDT...

At 227 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Goldville, or 10 miles southeast of Ashland, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Roanoke, Lineville, Ashland, New Site, Wadley, Goldville, Hillabee
Creek, Malone, Abanda, Crystal Lake, Penton, Trammel Crossroads,
Sparkling Springs, Daviston, Dickert, Cragford, R.L. Harris Dam,
Horseshoe Bend National Military Park, Tennant and Horseshoe Bend.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
east central Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3298 8589 3331 8581 3326 8538 3290 8544
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 285DEG 23KT 3314 8574

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

25/Owen

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
232 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0204 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 WNW Delmar            34.19N 87.67W
08/06/2023                   Marion             AL   Emergency Mngr

            Trees and power lines down on house on
            County Road 19.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
232 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023

ALZ021-028-029-062000-
Clay AL-Randolph AL-Cleburne AL-
232 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Randolph,
southeastern Cleburne and northeastern Clay Counties through 300 PM
CDT...

At 232 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Corinth, or 11 miles south of Heflin, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Ranburne, Woodland, Morrison Cross Roads, Fosters Cross Roads,
Corinth, Delta, Graham, Hollis Crossroads, Newell, Napoleon, Trickem,
Micaville and Big Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
east central Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3339 8571 3361 8562 3355 8532 3327 8526
TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 284DEG 20KT 3347 8556

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

25/Owen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
235 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023

ALZ025-034-035-062000-
Chilton AL-Bibb AL-Shelby AL-
235 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Chilton, southern Shelby and east central Bibb Counties through 300
PM CDT...

At 235 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Shelby County Airport, or near Alabaster, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Alabaster, Pelham, Helena, Calera, Montevallo, Columbiana,
Wilsonville, Wilton, American Village, Maylene, Brierfield Ironworks
Park, University Of Montevallo, Shelby County Airport, Lay Lake Dam,
Lay Lake, Oak Mountain State Park, Shelby, Joe Tucker Park, Minooka
Park and Alabama 4H Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
central and east central Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3330 8692 3331 8690 3333 8689 3323 8646
      3320 8646 3320 8649 3318 8650 3312 8646
      3309 8651 3307 8651 3306 8652 3300 8652
      3299 8651 3296 8652 3306 8702
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 284DEG 20KT 3317 8680

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

25/Owen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
237 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023

ALZ046-049-062030-
Pike AL-Bullock AL-
237 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Pike and
southwestern Bullock Counties through 330 PM CDT...

At 236 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ansley, or 7 miles west of Troy, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Troy, Brundidge, Goshen, Banks, Kent, Antioch, Linwood, Ansley, Troy
Municipal Airport, Troy University, Tennille, Hamilton Crossroads,
Monticello, Orion, Springhill, Sandfield, Brundidge Municipal
Airport, Mossy Grove and Tarentum.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3169 8615 3179 8615 3179 8620 3181 8620
      3183 8618 3185 8619 3189 8617 3197 8619
      3197 8600 3199 8599 3199 8572 3163 8573
      3162 8575 3162 8577
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 284DEG 20KT 3183 8609

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

25/Owen