Severe Thunderstorm Warning 333, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
644 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2023

High pressure over the northern Gulf will put central Alabama in
westerly flow through the rest of the weekend. This afternoon,
widespread instabilities will be between 2000 to 3000 J/kg with
the far western areas of Alabama seeing higher instabilities up to
3500 J/kg. Shear will be very low, and PW values will be high
once again. Winds will be weak aloft. Scattered diurnal convection
could develop, though would expected more isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms with strong storms expected.

High res models show a weak boundary moving through northern
Alabama this evening, after sunset. Additional activity is
expected mainly across areas north of I20 through the early night.
Instabilities will be slightly higher with amounts up to 3500
J/kg. Wind shear will be much higher around 35 kts with DCAPE
values approaching the 1200 to 1400 J/kg range. Strong to
isolated severe storms are possible with damaging winds the main
threat tonight.

With rain expected in the late hours tonight, fog is expected
across the area with dense fog possible if clouds can clear fairly
quickly behind the weak boundary. Activity should weaken and move
east shortly after midnight, with mild and humid conditions
through the rest of the night.

Sunday, another boundary is expected to move through the state
from west to east through the afternoon. Instabilities will be
between 3000 and 4000 J/kg with plenty of low level shear. PW
values max and DCAPE will again be around 1200 J/kg. Strong to
severe storms are possible, mainly in areas east of I65 where the
strongest parameters are located later afternoon and early
evening. With PW values in the max percentile for this time of
year, localized flooding is possible in any slow moving cells, or
any storms that move over the same area.

Heat indices today will be around 105 degrees or slightly above
in the southeastern half of the area. Will let the Heat Advisory
continue until this evening. Tomorrow, the heat indices could
reach Heat Advisory criteria again for much of the area, though
confidence is lower of this happening due to the cloud cover and
scattered coverage expected in the late afternoon. Will err on the
side of caution and go ahead and extend the Heat Advisory through
the evening tomorrow.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2023

Severe weather parameters are looking more impressive for Monday
as a low level frontal boundary sinks southward towards Alabama.
925mb southwest winds 20-25 kts will feed warm and moist air into
the area and 0-6km bulk shear values will rise to 30-35 kts
Monday afternoon and evening. Initially, there will also be some
drier air aloft which will produce DCAPE values near 1500 J/kg.
An elevated cap will likely keep any storms confined to a convective
line that will develop ahead of the surface front. If the storms
can organize into a QLCS, there will be a potential for significant
wind damage, mainly for areas east of I-65. Slightly cooler and
drier air will overspread Central Alabama Tuesday and Wednesday as
an upper trof digs southward towards the Gulf Coast. The cooler
conditions should hinder any severe development and ease the heat
indices back below 105 degrees. The upper flow will remain from
the northwest all next week, so rain chances will continue each
day.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2023

Concern for the short term is for thunderstorm potential through
06Z across our northern areas, potentially affecting KBHM between
03-05Z. Have introduced VCTS and will amend include TSRA if
confidence increases. South of KBHM, confidence is too low to
include VCTS at this time. After 06Z, VFR conditions are expected
with little to no shower and thunderstorm activity until around
19Z tomorrow, when VCTS has been included for all sites.

87/Grantham

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated thunderstorms through the evening hours. Higher coverage
of rain on Sunday, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.
Minimum RH values on Sunday 50-55 percent with 20 ft winds
westerly at 5-7 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     70  93  71  95 /  30  70  20  40
Anniston    73  92  73  95 /  20  70  20  40
Birmingham  75  94  75  95 /  40  60  20  40
Tuscaloosa  75  94  75  95 /  40  60  20  30
Calera      75  94  75  95 /  20  70  20  30
Auburn      75  93  73  93 /  10  70  20  30
Montgomery  75  97  75  98 /  20  70  20  20
Troy        75  96  74  98 /  10  70  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Sunday for the following counties:
Autauga-Bibb-Dallas-Elmore-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Lamar-Lowndes-
Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Sumter-Tuscaloosa-Walker.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for the following
counties: Barbour-Bullock-Chilton-Coosa-Jefferson-Macon-Pike-
Russell-Shelby-Talladega-Tallapoosa.

&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...87/Grantham

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
218 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023

ALZ011>015-017>050-062230-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
218 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Heat indices are forecast to reach or exceed 105 degrees across
portions of western Central Alabama this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Severe thunderstorms are possible across Central Alabama on Sunday, Monday
and Tuesday, mainly during the afternoon and evening. Storms will
pose a threat of damaging wind gusts and hail up to quarter size.

Heat indices are forecast to reach or exceed 105 degrees across
much of Central Alabama on Sunday and Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>