Severe Thunderstorm Warning 263, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
121 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 121 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2023

Broad mid-level ridging has moved further east of the area while
an upper low was positioned over North-Central Illinois with
associated troughing further southwest over the Ozarks. Surface
high pressure is positioned to our east along the Central and
Southern Appalachians while a surface front extends from near
Chicago, IL southwest to near Little Rock, AR and west across the
Red River in the Central Plains.

RAP mesoanalysis depicts multiple shortwaves over the Mid-South
extending east to over the northern portion of the state. The area
is experiencing strong low-level instability with temperatures in
the 90s and dew points remaining in the 70s while mid-level
ridging was centered over South Georgia. Today's activity is not
associated with a convective complex, but is rather more scattered
in nature. However, we are experiencing higher than typical deep-
layer shear today with 0-6 km Bulk Shear values over 20 kts
generally near and north of the Interstate 20 corridor and even
higher amounts to our west per RAP mesoanalysis. Sufficient wind
shear will support storm organization and longer life cycles while
the strong instability and sufficient dry air aloft will favor
damaging wind and hail risk from the heavier activity today.

The wet microburst risk is high today with the better potential
across the northern and central counties. Most storms will produce
gusty winds with some damaging winds possible from the heavier
activity.

This afternoon.

A longwave trough advances further east toward the Lower
Mississippi River Valley today while mid-level ridging broadens
out further off to our east. Surface high pressure also becomes
positioned further east while a surface front moves into the
Western Ohio River Valley and extends southwest across the Mid
South and back west into the Central Plains. A series of
shortwaves aloft will move east over the northern portion of the
forecast area with sufficient wind shear for some organized strong
to severe storms.

Strong low-level instability will support scattered showers and
thunderstorm activity with highest activity across the northern
portion of the area through mid afternoon, followed by more
activity across the south as outflows from the north and west
propagate into the area along with expected sea breeze activity
pushing north through the afternoon hours. Some storms may be
severe with damaging winds and hail due to high wet microburst
potential in addition to higher wind shear than typical for this
time of year. High humidity coupled with hot temperatures will
continue to produce heat index values over 105 degrees with heat
stress remaining a concern this afternoon into the early evening.
Highs will range from the low 90s far east to the upper 90s south
and central. Winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.

Tonight.

A longwave trough will move over the Lower and Middle Mississippi
River Valley Regions overnight while mid-level ridging persists
off the Southeast Atlantic Coast and over the Four Corners States
out west. Surface high pressure becomes positioned further
southeast over Southern Florida while a surface front decelerates
to our northwest over the Ohio River Valley extending southwest
into the Mid-South Region.

Continued scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will
gradually shift from northwest to southeast through the evening as
the sea breeze advances northward, fostering low-level
convergence across the south to maintain activity later in time. A
few strong to severe storms will remain possible with damaging
winds and hail, though this risk will decrease with time after
sunset. Lows will range from near 70 northeast to readings in the
mid 70s south and west. Winds will become more southerly overnight
with speeds from 3-6 mph.

Monday.

The flow pattern aloft becomes more zonal Monday though longwave
troughing persists just to our north and northwest. Ridging
remains positioned far to our east with another ridge remaining
over the Desert Southwest. Surface high pressure will remain far
southeast of us while the surface front will advance further south
and east, extending from the Eastern Ohio River Valley southwest
through the Mid-South Region.

Chances for showers and storms will be more focused to the north
and northwest through the morning hours, closer to the surface
front to our northwest, then activity is expected to expand toward
midday and into the afternoon hours across most of the forecast
area due to existing boundaries from ongoing current convection.
The overall weakness aloft with persistent strong low-level
instability will continue to support instances of strong to severe
storms from midday through early evening. Highs will range from
the low 90s far east to the mid 90s south. Winds will be from the
southwest at 6-12 mph.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT SUN JUL 2 2023

An active weather pattern will continue through the remainder of the
week.

Weak ridging in the lower levels persists across the Gulf States
with an upper level trough to our north. The frontal boundary
remains largely stationary to our north as well, providing at least
some initial focus for convection each afternoon. For Tuesday,
scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop, with
some becoming strong to severe. Overall, deep layer shear is
limited, so the main threat will be damaging winds with any
downbursts, but we can't rule out some hail with the stronger
storms.

Heat indices will reach into the 100-105 degree range Tuesday
afternoon, though the extent may be limited by the timing and
coverage of any thunderstorm activity.

The pattern doesn't change significantly through the end of the
week. There are hints that at least a couple of shortwaves could
swing through the upper level trough, leading to higher coverage of
thunderstorm activity, but timing of those shortwaves is highly
uncertain at this point. It's likely that we see at least scattered
to numerous thunderstorms each afternoon this week, with a few
strong storms possible each day.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2023

Cumulus development will continue through the afternoon as
showers develop further across the northern half of the area with
thunderstorm activity increasing with time. Showers and storms are
expected to develop further south later this afternoon with a
potential focus being a northward advancing sea breeze from the
Gulf Coast. Expect scattered showers and storms to continue into
the evening with lingering activity expected across the northwest
and north-central as a weak front nears from the northwest.
Similar conditions are forecast Monday with scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected from late morning through the afternoon
hours.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot and humid conditions through early next week, with afternoon
and evening thunderstorms expected each day. Heat indices will be
over 105 degrees today, then 100-105 through the early part of
next week.Generally light westerly to southwesterly winds will
persist through the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  93  71  91 /  40  50  30  70
Anniston    72  91  73  91 /  40  50  30  70
Birmingham  74  94  74  92 /  40  50  30  60
Tuscaloosa  74  93  74  92 /  30  50  30  60
Calera      72  92  73  91 /  40  50  30  60
Auburn      73  91  74  89 /  50  50  20  50
Montgomery  74  95  74  93 /  50  50  20  50
Troy        74  95  73  95 /  50  50  20  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-
Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-
Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-
Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St.
Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1203 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023

ALZ011>015-017>050-032015-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
1203 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening through 10pm. The main concern will be damaging winds and
hail.

Hot and humid conditions are expected again today with heat indices
of 105 to near 110 possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hot and humid conditions are forecast to continue through midweek.
Heat index values during the afternoon are expected to reach or
exceed 105 degrees.

Severe storms are possible across all of Central Alabama during the
afternoon and evening hours on Monday and Tuesday. Threats include
damaging winds up to 60 mph and quarter size hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
today, Monday, and Tuesday.

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