River Flood Warning 16, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
628 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 105 AM CDT MON MAR 27 2023

Watching radar trends right now, there is an outflow boundary near
the I-85 corridor, with two main bands of showers and storms. The
southern band is more surface based and will need to be monitored
over the next several hours for any severe potential. Activity has
been on the weakening trend of the past several hours as the shear
has decreased over the area. There still is some decent MUCAPE but
even those have been decreasing. The band of showers and storms
along the I-59 corridor are more elevated with generally some
small hail at best and heavy rainfall at times. Will continue to
monitor for flooding until this band clears. Meanwhile a more
substantial cold front will move through the area during the
morning and then slide into the southeast by mid-afternoon. Most
of the rain should be out of the southeast by then.

However, the rain will still not be over for Central Alabama. A
quick moving upper level impulse will track along the Gulf Coast
overnight and into Tuesday morning. The models continue to show
that this will mainly impact the southern half of the area, with
the best chances along and south of the US 80/I-85 corridor. Low
level winds will remain from the northeast tonight and Tuesday, so
low level Gulf moisture should be cut-off and instability very
limited. The rain will move out of south central Alabama by late
afternoon Tuesday.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT MON MAR 27 2023

We finally will dry out Tuesday evening as the front pushes
through as the upper level impulse moves east. Looks like dry
weather will hold out through Friday morning across the north,
while the south should remain dry through Friday night. This is in
response to a cold front that will begin to approach the area and
then slide through during the day on Saturday. We will need to
keep an eye on the front as it moves through, especially in the
south where daytime heating could enhance activity as it moves
through. There still is some timing differences and will just
mention strong storms at this time as the main dynamics are just
to the north of the area. Much more on this system as we go
through the week and the timing differences will hopefully become
a little clearer. We will need to keep an eye on temperatures for
Wednesday morning and Thursday morning. Most of the locations will
remain above freezing Wednesday morning but a few local areas may
briefly drop into the low 30s. Even if areas in the north do not
reach freezing, there will be a frost potential for areas
generally north of the I-20 corridor. Thursday morning will be
warmer but frost potential may develop with light winds.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT MON MAR 27 2023

Showers and storms will continue slide south through the day.
Most of the activity in the north will be ending by 14 to 15z,
while MGM will see activity through 18z. TOI may actually begin
to see showers by 14z and may continue there until 21 to 23z.
Activity will end after that and skies will eventually improve to
VFR late afternoon/evening. Another round of showers and storms
may move into the south (MGM and TOI) Tuesday morning. Went ahead
and included prob30s after 8z.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A cool front will push through Central Alabama today, ending the
rain from north to south. Min RH values this afternoon will remain
elevated. 20 foot winds will shift to the northwest 5-7 mph
across north Alabama, with west to southwest winds 5-7 mph across
the southern counties. Another round of rain will move across
south Alabama by early Tuesday morning, with rainfall amounts
generally less than one- half inch. Dry for Tuesday afternoon
through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     77  47  67  37 /  30  10  20   0
Anniston    78  50  69  40 /  50  10  20   0
Birmingham  77  51  68  41 /  30  10  20   0
Tuscaloosa  79  52  71  42 /  30  20  40   0
Calera      78  52  69  41 /  50  10  30   0
Auburn      78  55  70  44 /  90  20  60   0
Montgomery  80  57  71  44 /  90  30  60   0
Troy        78  59  70  46 /  90  40  70   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Chilton-
Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lee-
Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-
Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa.

&&

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
555 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

ALZ011>015-017>050-281400-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
555 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

The potential for severe storms will continue through Noon today
across locations south of a Selma to Alexander City line. Threats
include large hail and damaging winds up to 60 mph. Flash flooding
remains a concern as well through 10 AM.

River flooding will also begin to occur along the Tallapoosa River
Basin this morning and continue through the day. Please monitor River
flood warnings and statements for the latest.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

River flooding will remain possible through Thursday for portions of
the Tallapoosa River Basin. Please monitor River flood warnings and
statements for the latest.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
through this morning.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
332 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

ALZ037-038-270915-
Tallapoosa AL-Chambers AL-
332 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Tallapoosa and northwestern Chambers Counties through 415 AM CDT...

At 332 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Jacksons' Gap, or near Dadeville, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Alexander City, Dadeville, Lafayette, La Fayette, Jacksons' Gap, New
Site, Hillabee Creek, Northern Lake Martin, Penton, Trammel
Crossroads, Ridge Grove, Buffalo, Eastern Lake Martin, Daviston,
Horseshoe Bend National Military Park, Dare Park, Eagle Creek and
Horseshoe Bend.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3281 8588 3299 8592 3311 8543 3285 8537
TIME...MOT...LOC 0832Z 258DEG 31KT 3292 8582

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

87/Grantham

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
333 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

ALZ028-036-270915-
Clay AL-Coosa AL-
333 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Coosa County through
415 AM CDT...

At 333 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lay Lake Dam, or 10 miles northeast of Clanton, moving east at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Goodwater, Rockford, Kellyton, Weogufka, Hanover, Lyle, Mitchell
Lake, Dollar, Bradford, Bentleyville, Unity, Parkdale, Moriah,
Hatchet, Higgins Ferry Park, Crewsville, Lay Lake, Cleveland
Crossroads, Paint Creek and Ray.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3311 8597 3309 8598 3309 8601 3287 8601
      3285 8645 3287 8648 3291 8649 3293 8651
      3300 8652 3315 8593 3311 8592
TIME...MOT...LOC 0833Z 258DEG 31KT 3293 8647

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

87/Grantham

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
531 AM CDT MON MAR 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0254 AM     TORNADO          MILSTEAD                32.45N 85.90W
03/27/2023                   MACON              AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN AND DAMAGE TO A COMMERCIAL
            STRUCTURE, ALONG HWY 229, NEAR RAILROAD
            CROSSING. DAMAGE LOCATION CONSISTENT WITH
            TDS.

&&

HA

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