River Flood Warning 14, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
121 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 105 AM CDT MON MAR 27 2023

Watching radar trends right now, there is an outflow boundary near
the I-85 corridor, with two main bands of showers and storms. The
southern band is more surface based and will need to be monitored
over the next several hours for any severe potential. Activity has
been on the weakening trend of the past several hours as the shear
has decreased over the area. There still is some decent MUCAPE but
even those have been decreasing. The band of showers and storms
along the I-59 corridor are more elevated with generally some
small hail at best and heavy rainfall at times. Will continue to
monitor for flooding until this band clears. Meanwhile a more
substantial cold front will move through the area during the
morning and then slide into the southeast by mid-afternoon. Most
of the rain should be out of the southeast by then.

However, the rain will still not be over for Central Alabama. A
quick moving upper level impulse will track along the Gulf Coast
overnight and into Tuesday morning. The models continue to show
that this will mainly impact the southern half of the area, with
the best chances along and south of the US 80/I-85 corridor. Low
level winds will remain from the northeast tonight and Tuesday, so
low level Gulf moisture should be cut-off and instability very
limited. The rain will move out of south central Alabama by late
afternoon Tuesday.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023

Dry weather Tuesday night through Friday. A cold front will bring
some rain to the area Friday night and Saturday. Much more
seasonal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. A chilly start Wednesday morning with lows
in the upper 30s far north to upper 40s south. Highs back into
the 80s by Friday.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 AM CDT MON MAR 27 2023

Showers and storms will continue to impact all TAF sites through 9
to 10z and then slide south through the day. Most of the activity
in the north will be ending by 12 to 14z, while MGM will see stuff
through 18z. TOI may actually begin to see showers by 10z and may
continue there until 21 to 23z. Activity will end after that and
skies will eventually improve to VFR late afternoon/evening.
Another round of showers and storms may move into the south (MGM
and TOI) Tuesday morning but will most likely remain just outside
of this cycle and the next.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A cool front will push through Central Alabama today, ending the
rain from north to south. Min RH values this afternoon will remain
elevated. 20 foot winds will shift to the northwest 5-7 mph
across north Alabama, with west to southwest winds 5-7 mph across
the southern counties. Another round of rain will move across
south Alabama by early Tuesday morning, with rainfall amounts
generally less than one- half inch. Dry for Tuesday afternoon
through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     77  47  67  38 /  20  10  20   0
Anniston    78  50  69  40 /  30  10  20   0
Birmingham  77  51  68  41 /  20  10  20   0
Tuscaloosa  79  52  71  43 /  20  20  40   0
Calera      78  52  69  43 /  30  10  30   0
Auburn      78  55  70  45 /  70  20  40   0
Montgomery  80  57  71  45 /  70  30  60   0
Troy        78  59  70  47 /  90  40  60   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Chilton-
Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lee-
Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-
Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa.

&&

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...16

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
419 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

ALZ011>015-017>050-271230-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
419 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Severe storms are possible through tonight, with several rounds of
storms possible. Primary threats include large hail, damaging winds
up to 60 mph, and localized flash flooding. A couple tornadoes are
possible, beginning this afternoon, across the southern half of
Central Alabama.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The potential for severe storms will continue through early Monday
morning, possibly as late as 8am, for locations south of I-85. Threats
include large hail, damaging winds up to 60 mph, isolated flash
flooding, and a couple tornadoes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
through Monday morning.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1048 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

ALZ044>046-270415-
Montgomery AL-Macon AL-Bullock AL-
1048 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Bullock, south central Macon and east central Montgomery Counties
through 1115 PM CDT...

At 1048 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Shopton, or 11 miles northeast of Meadville, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Union Springs, Shopton, Franklin Field, Sedgefield, Mitchell,
Simsville and Fort Davis.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for south central
and southeastern Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3209 8605 3224 8612 3228 8570 3214 8564
TIME...MOT...LOC 0348Z 259DEG 34KT 3218 8599

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

32/Davis

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1127 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1024 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WNW MARTIN DAM        32.69N 85.96W
03/26/2023                   ELMORE             AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN NEAR RED HILL INCLUDING
            NEAR HIGHWAY 229 AND COUNTY 359 AND CAMP
            TALISI ROAD AND HOLLEY MILL ROAD.

&&

DAVIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1205 AM CDT MON MAR 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1103 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WADLEY                  33.13N 85.57W
03/26/2023                   RANDOLPH           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROBERTS STREET IN WADLEY IS UNDER WATER.

&&

DAVIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1207 AM CDT MON MAR 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1103 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SSW ROANOKE           33.14N 85.38W
03/26/2023                   RANDOLPH           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CHESTNUT STREET AND SATTERWHITE STREET
            FLOODED WITH ONE VEHICLE IN WATER.

&&

DAVIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1212 AM CDT MON MAR 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1028 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW STILL WATERS RESOR 32.72N 85.84W
03/26/2023                   TALLAPOOSA         AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN BLOCKING ROADWAYS SOUTH
            OF LAKE MARTIN, INCLUDING TURNER ROAD,
            LAKEWOOD DRIVE, CENTER PORT ROAD, AND
            OVERLOOK DRIVE.

&&

DAVIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1214 AM CDT MON MAR 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0854 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW WHITES BLUFF       32.23N 87.23W
03/26/2023                   DALLAS             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON COUNTY ROAD 955.

&&

DAVIS