Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1058 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 228 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2023

Summary:

Multiple modes of hazardous weather will likely impact the
Panhandles Sunday. High winds outside of thunderstorms, critical
fire danger, and severe thunderstorms are all on tap with the
following times and areas favored:

High winds outside of thunderstorms: in the western third of the
Panhandles during the afternoon, spreading eastward across the
entirety of the Texas Panhandle during the late afternoon and
evening behind an eastward surging Pacific front.

Critical fire danger: in the western third of the Panhandles during
the afternoon.

Severe thunderstorms: In the eastern half of the Panhandles during
the late afternoon and evening as the Pacific front sweeps eastward.
While severe hail and a tornado are possible, damaging winds will be
the primary hazard with these thunderstorms.

Details:

19z WV satellite shows a stout upper low off the coast of S CA with
an expansive area of strong southwesterly winds aloft over the Four
Corners and W TX. At the surface, pressure falls in the lee of the
Sangre de Cristos have begun, driving southwesterly winds across
much of the Panhandles, mercifully modifying the western extent of
the shallow cold air mass that still remains to our east in OK. With
a low level high in place over the Gulf Coast, moist advection is
occurring to our south over W TX, with dewpoints climbing into the
30s.

Tonight, continued low level moist advection may lead to fog and/or
drizzle in the S TX Panhandle. At this time, given the decent
breeze, am not expecting dense fog.

Sunday, S CA upper low advances over S NV to N NM with a 85/55/45
500/700/850mb jet overspreading our forecast area. With the lee
cyclone deepening in SE CO as well, expect strong winds to develop
during the afternoon in the western Panhandles. With 40-55 knot
winds through the progged boundary layer, 60 mph wind gusts could
easily occur in the west. Downslope orientation to these winds
should serve to dry out the low levels, leading to critical fire
danger in the west, as discussed in the dedicated section below.
During the late afternoon and evening, a Pacific front will arrive
and sweep eastward through the Panhandles. With a 60 kt 850mb jet
behind this feature seen in guidance, expect high winds to occur
with and following the passage of the front, particularly in the
southern TX Panhandle. Have thus expanded the High Wind Watch to
include Hemphill-Collingsworth Counties. Additionally, have elected
to segment the High Wind Watch, with Ochiltree-Donley and Hemphill-
Collingsworth having their Watch begin at 6pm CST while the western
counties still begin at 12pm CST - it seems highly unlikely high
winds will occur in the east before the Pacific front arrives.

As for severe thunderstorms, southerly moist advection in the east
looks to continue as the surface pressure gradient tightens. As
temperatures aloft cool considerably due to the approaching wave,
around 500 to perhaps 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE look to be present. With
the aforementioned southwesterly winds aloft overspreading the area,
around 70 knots of 0-6km bulk shear will be present and progged
hodographs show a good deal of turning in the low levels, with pre-
convective sfc-500m SRH of at least 100 m2/s2 present. This,
combined with cold temperatures aloft and strong mid-level winds
downdraft could easily bring to the surface, thunderstorms would be
capable of generating all hazards. The concern remains
destabilization, with the lingering cold air mass across OK and N TX
perhaps limiting moisture return somewhat. Thus, think the prospect
of convective development in the east before the Pacific front flies
eastward is quite slim. While bulk shear vectors are at a favorable
angle with respect to the Pacific front for discrete supercells to
develop, widespread lift will likely lead to numerous updrafts and
rapid upscale growth. Thus, while near surface helicity - and
relatively low LCLs for that matter - would support supercell
tornadoes, the window for those appears to be exceedingly small.
Instead, expect a rapidly moving squall line with downdrafts capable
of forcing the strong winds aloft to the surface. Additionally, sfc-
3km bulk shear is around 45 knots out of the southwest, so a QLCS
tornado or two would be possible, particularly along and north of
any bowing segments. Summarizing the above, expect severe storms to
develop along the Pacific front during the late afternoon and
evening with a risk for damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a tornado
in that order of relative probability.

Ferguson

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 228 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2023

Broad scale zonal flow across the southern high plains will lead to
a fairly mild Monday and Tuesday, as warm air holds in place.  Highs
look to be in the 60s to lower 70s both Monday and Tuesday.
Conditions will be fairly dry as well on Monday as the Pacific front
that moved through with Sunday's severe weather will bring about
very low dewpoints as well.  A lee surface low will set up mainly
over the northern Panhandles on Monday, and therefore winds across
most of the Panhandles will be less than 20 mph, with exception of
the southwest area.  So while critical Fire Weather is not ruled
out, it's very much isolated to that area.  On Tuesday the surface
low will retreat northwest and tighten up a bit to provide more
breezy winds across much of the Panhandles.  We'll still see fairly
low RH values as the overall synoptic setup will be similar to
Monday.

Wednesday a trough will continue to dig deeper over the southern NV
area and the overall flow will become more southwesterly.  Generally
ahead of the arrival of the cold air we would be in the warm sector,
and that may still be the case, but there is a shortwave to the
north that will move across the central plains.  The challenge will
be to see if a weak cold front will push against the southwesterly
flow and bring much cooler temperatures to the north.  Overall, the
south is expected to be mild, but the north could go either way.

Wednesday night through Friday morning will be the next opportunity
for moisture, as the system that was over the southern NV area moves
east over the Panhandles.  It's expected to bring a mixture of rain
and snow as the main forms of precipitation.  The challenge will
still be as to if the system take a sharp southeasterly track and
could limit just how much moisture we receive.  But it still has the
potential, given the right track to provide at least a decent round
of moisture to the Panhandles.  Once the system exits on Friday
evening, there will be a transition to high pressure and warmer
temperatures should return for next weekend.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1052 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2023

At AMA...MVFR to IFR or even LIFR conditions will be possible
toward sunrise. Skies should become VFR by early in the afternoon
Sunday. South winds around 15 knots will increase and turn more to
the southwest Sunday afternoon at 35 to 40 knots with higher
gusts.

At DHT and GUY...Skies are expected to remain VFR. South winds
around 15 knots will increase and turn more to the southwest
at around 35 knots with higher gusts. The winds will then
decrease some and turn more westerly after sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 228 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2023

As a lee surface cyclone deepens in SE CO and a 85/55/45
500/700/850mb jet overspreads the area, 20 foot winds of 25 to 35
mph with gusts to 60 mph will develop in the western Panhandle
Sunday. While RH values will only drop to around 20 percent, this
should be enough to yield RFTI values of 4, leading to critical
conditions in the western Panhandles. Guidance continues to trend
away from an optimal overlap of the stacked jet and windward side
of the LLTR, so confidence in aggressive fire behavior is
decreasing. Nonetheless, still think the potential will be there
for initial attack fires and large fires.

Ferguson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                42  72  33  68 /   0  30   0   0
Beaver OK                  40  71  35  67 /  10  60  40   0
Boise City OK              39  67  27  63 /   0  20   0   0
Borger TX                  42  73  35  71 /   0  50   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              45  73  32  68 /   0  20   0   0
Canyon TX                  43  73  33  69 /   0  30   0   0
Clarendon TX               39  71  38  70 /   0  80  20   0
Dalhart TX                 38  68  26  65 /   0  20   0   0
Guymon OK                  40  72  32  65 /   0  40   0   0
Hereford TX                42  73  32  69 /   0  20   0   0
Lipscomb TX                40  64  36  68 /   0  70  50   0
Pampa TX                   40  66  35  68 /   0  80  10   0
Shamrock TX                38  61  39  71 /  10  70  70   0
Wellington TX              39  67  39  72 /   0  70  50   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night
     for TXZ001>003-006>008-011>013-016>018-317.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday evening through late Sunday night
     for TXZ004-009-010-014-015-019-020.

OK...High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night
     for OKZ001-002.

&&

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...15

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