Red Flag Warning 11, NWS Amarillo, TX

Beaver County, OK, Cimarron County, OK, Texas County, OK, Armstrong County, TX, Carson County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Dallam County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Donley County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Moore County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Sherman County, TX, Wheeler County, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1237 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2023

Heights aloft will rise today over the Panhandles ahead of a robust
trough impacting southern California. Partly to mostly cloudy sky is
expected today with subtropical moisture in the mid to upper-levels.
In the lower levels, however, it'll be much drier. There will be
breezy southwesterly surface winds across the area due to a near-
1000mb low that will be nearly stationary in southeast Colorado
today. Stunted by the aforementioned clouds, the mixed layer should
reach into the 700mb-600mb layer for most of the area. However,
700mb winds will weaken through the day as the shortwave that
brought us some rain overnight moves out. Therefore, looking more
like just a warm and breezy day for the Panhandles with the
southeast approaching 80 degrees and the northwest in the mid-60s.

Cloud cover overnight should remain partly to mostly cloudy with
southwest winds at 10-15 mph. This should keep lows relatively mild,
with at least some of the southeast half of the area staying above
50 degrees.

The trough previously mentioned will approach the area tomorrow with
a strong jet streak moving over the Colorado Rockies. In response,
stronger lee cyclogenesis will occur, deepening a surface low below
1000mb in the afternoon. A stronger 700mb jet will also develop over
the area, generally greater than 40 mph, but 45 to 55 mph should be
present in the north, setting up for a potentially windy and gusty
day. However, upper-level clouds are expected which will limit the
depth of the mixed layer. With the most cloud cover expected in the
northwest, forecast soundings show the top of the mixed layer will
be around 700mb and 650mb in the southeast. Nevertheless, the
northwest should be able to tap into the stronger winds aloft and
bring some of it to the surface. Therefore, 50 to 60 mph wind gusts
are possible for a window spanning roughly from 2 pm to 5 pm. If
longer cloud breaks occur, it would allow for deeper mixing and the
potential for gusts to exceed 60 mph. As such, there's currently a
roughly 25% chance for gusts to exceed 65 mph in eastern Cimarron
county and western Texas county, and a roughly 10-15% chance in
western Dallam county. Elsewhere in the Panhandles, gusts in the 30s
and 40s may occur.

Winds will weaken gradually overnight and a Pacific front will begin
to move through the area with westerly winds behind it. Another cold
front will drop in from the north toward the end of the short-term
period, introducing some northerly winds to the north.

Vanden Bosch/Gittinger

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2023

Thursday into Friday, a longwave trough with a bit of a positive
tilt slides eastward over the Plains. While this pattern usually
suggests little if any precipitation will occur as it favors dry
southwesterly winds through the low to mid levels, EC/CMC do depict
a weak backdoor front sneaking southwestward into our CWA Thursday
night. This would bring just enough low level moisture to support
perhaps a few bits of light rain and, in the SE TX Panhandle,
perhaps a rumble of thunder. Each ensemble system isn't too
helpful as a majority of ECENS members have the backdoor front
entering the Panhandles while most GEFS members refrain from
bringing that feature into the area. Am thus torn between my usual
inclination to cut PoPs due to the unfavorable upper pattern and to
keep them in deference to the usual farther southward movement of
approaching cold fronts. Have thus stuck with blended guidance for
PoPs and, given aforementioned uncertainty about the frontal
position, wouldn't touch temperatures with a 10 foot pole at this
point. In either case, front should push through Friday night,
leading to temperatures a bit below average for Saturday.

Saturday through Monday look to feature largely zonal flow aloft.
That said, strong northern stream wave Saturday night and a second
positively tilted trough sliding eastward over the central Plains
Sunday night should help usher another pair of cold front southward.
While moisture pooling may support a small bit of precip along and
just behind each front in the northern Panhandles, lack of notable
moisture from either the Gulf of Mexico or the eastern Pacific
should favor low amounts and coverage. Temperatures will also
continue to run below average.

Ferguson

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023

VFR conditions expected throughout the 06Z TAF period. Winds will
start out of the southwest at 10-15 kts. Winds will then increase
to 20-30 kts by this afternoon. Wind gusts up to 50 kts will be
possible, especially at KDHT/KGUY. Winds will then diminish to
10-20 kts after 00Z to the end of the TAF period. Watching also
for tomorrow afternoon during peak winds as BLDU may reduce vsbys
at times.

Meccariello

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2023

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected tomorrow.
Wind-driven max RFTI of 4 is expected in the northwest as RH will be
in the upper teens/lower 20s. Elsewhere in the Panhandles, RH will
be lower but the winds will also be weaker. Therefore, max RFTI of 1-
3 is expected. ERC Percentiles are higher in the east, at 70-80%,
than the west, at 50-70%. So, despite the lower RFTI values, fire
potential will need to be watched in the east as well. Will also
need to watch for RH values to dip below the current forecast if
longer cloud breaks occur, especially in the northwest.

Vanden Bosch/Gittinger

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                79  45  70  37 /   0   0   0  20
Beaver OK                  81  44  67  34 /   0   0   0  30
Boise City OK              74  41  63  32 /   0   0  10  20
Borger TX                  82  46  73  38 /   0   0   0  20
Boys Ranch TX              78  44  70  34 /   0   0  10  20
Canyon TX                  79  44  71  37 /   0   0   0  20
Clarendon TX               83  49  75  41 /   0   0  10  20
Dalhart TX                 74  41  65  32 /   0   0  10  20
Guymon OK                  78  43  66  33 /   0   0  10  30
Hereford TX                78  43  72  35 /   0   0   0  10
Lipscomb TX                83  48  70  37 /   0   0   0  30
Pampa TX                   81  47  72  38 /   0   0  10  20
Shamrock TX                86  49  76  42 /   0   0  10  20
Wellington TX              86  51  78  43 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from this afternoon through this evening for
     TXZ001>020-317.

     High Wind Watch from this afternoon through this evening for
     TXZ001-002-006.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from this afternoon through this evening for
     OKZ001>003.

     High Wind Watch from this afternoon through this evening for
     OKZ001-002.

&&

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...29

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
220 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2023

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-220900-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
220 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Critical fire weather conditions may develop across the entirety
of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles Wednesday.

Strong winds may develop in the northwestern combined Panhandles
Wednesday. A High Wind Watch is in effect for this area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
critical fire weather conditions Wednesday.