High Wind Warning 7, NWS Amarillo, TX

418 
WWUS74 KAMA 230045
NPWAMA

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
745 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023

OKZ001-TXZ001-006-230145-
/O.EXP.KAMA.HW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-230323T0100Z/
Cimarron-Dallam-Hartley-
Including the cities of Keyes, Boise City, Channing, Romero,
Conlen, Hartley, Ware, and Dalhart
745 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

The threat has ended.

$$

OKZ002-TXZ002-003-007-011-230145-
/O.EXP.KAMA.WI.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-230323T0100Z/
Texas-Sherman-Hansford-Moore-Oldham-
Including the cities of Boys Ranch, Dumas, Four Way, Wildorado,
Spearman, Masterson, Stratford, Vega, Gruver, and Guymon
745 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

The threat has ended.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
623 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023

Latest 08Z satellite observations this morning continue to show a
H700-500 southwesterly flow showing good moisture transport into
the southern high Plains from the Pacific. As the main low
pressure system continue to slowly move onshore in central
California, the SE periphery of moisture transport aloft will
continue to stream over the Panhandles throughout the day. This
should establish sct to bkn high clouds across the Panhandles
throughout the day.

Cloud cover will be the challenge in the forecast for today. With
the persistent subtropical surge aloft moving into the Panhandles,
along with a diffluent H300 jet set up by this afternoon, cloud
cover is expected to persist throughout most of the day. This
should also limit any deeply mixed profile. Based off the latest
22/00Z model, numerical, and probabilistic guidance, trends have
been decreasing over the past 12-24 hours of any high wind
criteria being achieved due to cloud cover. However, we still
cannot completely rule out a rogue wind gust to 60 mph, especially
for far northwestern Panhandles where breaks in the clouds will
allow for temporary mixing of the vertical profile is possible.
A Wind Advisory is in effect for the NW Panhandles this afternoon
where winds will be sustained around 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph
at times will be possible. The rest of the Panhandles will have
breezy SW winds, where Panhandles wide, patchy to areas of
blowing dust will be possible, especially if dust is advected from
the west or northwest of the area into the Panhandles where winds
will be slightly more robust. Winds will eventually taper off
going into the evening hours. Warm WSW winds will result in high
temperatures today ranging from the lower 70s in the NW to mid 80s
in the SE.

Tomorrow will be mostly dry through the afternoon hours. As we
approach the evening hours, a Pacific front will move east into
the Panhandles co-located with a broad vort max along the broad
H500 neutral tilted trough. Surface based moisture is quite
limited across the region as the Pacific front moves east, until
it reaches slightly better Td values along the western OK/east TX
Panhandle region where lift along the front may help to generate a
few rain showers. As this Pacific front is moving to the east, a
second back door front will move SW into the NE Panhandles.
Depending on its equatorward trajectory, some LL moisture behind
the front may help as a catalyst to develop rain showers across
the northern and northeastern Panhandles going into tomorrow
night. High temperatures tomorrow will range from the lower 60s in
the NW to upper 70s in the SE.

Meccariello

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023

As the main trough axis moves east across the northern Panhandles
on Friday, especially for areas in the wake of the backdoor cold
front, additional rain showers will be possible before the system
exits the region Friday night. Chances for rain showers is only
around 30 percent, although not too high, there is a chance
favoring the northern Panhandles. A second broad trough moving
east across the central Rockies on Sunday will skirt the far
northern Panhandles with a chance of some rain/snow showers. The
synoptic pattern starting Friday through early next week will
feature a favorable zonal pattern for the central CONUS with the
Panhandles getting one or two scant chances for precipitation as
the main activity stays mainly to our north. Temperatures
throughout will generally be slightly below average for late
March.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023

VFR conditions expected throughout the 06Z TAF period. Winds will
start out of the southwest at 10-15 kts. Winds will then increase
to 20-30 kts by this afternoon. Wind gusts up to 40 kts will be
possible throughout the afternoon hours. Winds will then diminish
to 10-20 kts after 00Z to the end of the TAF period. Watching
also for tomorrow afternoon during peak winds as BLDU may reduce
vsbys at times.

Meccariello

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire weather conditions are expected across the
Panhandles this afternoon. RFTI values up to 4 in the northwestern
Panhandles will be wind driven. Meanwhile, in the remainder of the
Panhandles, RFTI values up to 3 will have an RH component along
with breezy winds. Observations as of 08Z this morning does shows
some areas having poor RH recovery with values only in the lower
40s. Min RH values this afternoon will be as low as 15 percent.
ERC values will range to near 70th percentile in the western
Panhandles to near 80th percentile in the eastern Panhandles. If
cloud cover is not as predominant as current forecast, lower RH
values and stronger SW winds will be possible. Trends this
afternoon will have to be monitored closely.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                78  45  72  37 /   0   0   0  10
Beaver OK                  79  44  66  34 /   0   0   0  30
Boise City OK              73  40  63  32 /   0   0  10  10
Borger TX                  81  46  74  37 /   0   0   0  20
Boys Ranch TX              78  43  69  35 /   0   0  10  10
Canyon TX                  79  44  73  37 /   0   0   0  10
Clarendon TX               82  49  76  42 /   0   0   0  20
Dalhart TX                 74  41  65  32 /   0   0  10  10
Guymon OK                  78  42  66  33 /   0   0  10  20
Hereford TX                79  42  73  35 /   0   0   0  10
Lipscomb TX                80  46  71  36 /   0   0   0  30
Pampa TX                   81  47  73  38 /   0   0   0  20
Shamrock TX                85  50  76  42 /   0   0   0  30
Wellington TX              86  50  78  44 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for TXZ001>020-317.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ001-002-006.

OK...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for OKZ001>003.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ001-002.

&&

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
411 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-222300-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
411 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Critical fire weather conditions is expected across the entirety
of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
critical fire weather conditions today.