Special Weather Statement, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
707 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms,
mainly this afternoon, some of which could become severe.
Locally heavy downpours will also be possible. In the wake of
the front, high pressure will bring seasonably warm temperatures
and less humid conditions for the weekend, before another
system brings showers and thunderstorms early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
* Flood Watch for flash flooding in effect for Warren,
  Washington, northern Saratoga Counties in NY, and all of
  southern VT from Noon until 9 PM EDT *

UPDATE...As of 610 AM EDT, stratiform rain shield associated
with remnants of earlier MCS tracking east across southern VT.
Additional showers/isolated thunderstorms remain west of this
area across the Mohawk Valley and Saratoga region, with another
cluster of showers/isolated thunderstorms across far northern
Herkimer/Hamilton Cos. Showers/isolated thunderstorms may
persist for another 1-2 hours for areas north of I-90, except
through mid morning across northern Herkimer/Hamilton Cos. There
should be a lull in the showers/storms thereafter, before new
convection develops in this same area around noontime.

PREVIOUS [440 AM EDT]: weakening MCS continues tracking
eastward for areas near and north of I-90, with leading edge
extending from just south/east of the Capital Region northeast
into southern VT. The leading edge contains the heaviest
downpours, with a trailing area of moderate stratiform rain in
its wake. Additional showers/thunderstorms were developing
across portions of the Mohawk Valley and tracking east. Will
have to watch trends over the next few hours in case additional
training of heavy downpours occurs across portions of the
eastern Mohawk Valley and Saratoga County.

There should be a break in the showers/thunderstorms between
roughly 9 AM and Noon, before additional convection develops,
most likely areas north of I-90 initially before trending south
and east later this afternoon.

00Z/04 HREFs suggest mean SB CAPES of 1500-2000 J/kg across
much of the region by early/mid afternoon, along with 25-30 KT
of effective shear, along with fairly steep mid level lapse
rates (H7-H5 of 6.5-7 C/km). This suggests some storm
organization is possible, with some semi- discrete storms
initially which could produce isolated large hail/damaging wind
gusts, before potentially forming into clusters and producing
additional damaging wind gusts.

In addition, despite somewhat unimpressive PWAT's of 1.25-1.5",
CAMs suggest some potential for training and/or backbuilding of
cells within bands that pass through. This potential may be
somewhat maximized across portions of southern VT and the upper
Hudson Valley, where a Flood Watch for flash flooding has been
issued. Portions of northern Saratoga County also received heavy
rainfall last evening with 1-2 inches of rainfall, which has
been included in the FFA.

Max temps should reach 75-80 in valley areas, and 70-75 across
higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Showers/storms should continue shifting southeast through this
evening, and ending prior to midnight across southern areas.
Areas of low clouds/patchy fog may develop overnight, with lows
mainly in the lower/mid 50s across the southern Adirondacks, and
the upper 50s to lower 60s elsewhere.

High pressure will build into the region for Saturday-Sunday.
However, some cold air aloft within cyclonic upper level flow
could still allow for isolated showers to develop late Saturday
morning through mid afternoon across portions of the southern
Adirondacks and southern VT, perhaps as far south as the Lake
George/Saratoga region.

High temperatures should reach the upper 70s to lower 80s in
valleys Saturday, and lower/mid 80s Sunday, with mainly
lower/mid 70s across the higher terrain. Overnight lows will be
on the cool side, mainly in the 50s Saturday night/Sun morning,
with some 40s possible across the southern Adirondacks; slight
warming for Sun nt with mid 50s to lower 60s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Unsettled conditions Monday-Tuesday as a strong low pressure
system tracks into the Great Lakes and east central Canada.
Showers and thunderstorms develop late Monday and continue into
Monday night. Depending on how quickly a cold front tracks
through the region, some showers/storms could linger into
Tuesday, especially for areas east of the Hudson River. Current
timing favors the cold front tracking through at night,
minimizing instability and severe threat, however impressive
upper level dynamics could offset this somewhat.

Seasonably warm and dry conditions return later Tuesday through
midweek, before unsettled conditions potentially return by
Thursday as yet another low pressure system tracks into the
Great Lakes region.

High temperatures each day should generally be in the lower/mid
80s in valleys, and 70s across higher elevations, with overnight
lows in the 60s Mon nt/Tue AM, cooling into the 50s to lower 60s
Tue-Wed nights, with some 40s possible across the SW
Adirondacks.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Last of convection is expected to move
off to the east of the TAFs sites early this morning. Looking
at lull in activity this morning before convection refires this
afternoon ahead of approaching cold front. Thunderstorms will
occur some of which are expected to be strong to severe. The
best window 18Z/Friday-02Z/Saturday. The front moves off to the
east this evening bringing on end to the threat for convection.

Southerly flow will persist and will get enhanced up the Hudson
River Valley for a period today with gusts into the teens. Winds
will weaken and shift to the northwest with the front's passage.

Outlook...
Saturday-Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There is the potential for multiple rounds of heavy downpours to
occur this afternoon/evening due to possible
backbuilding/training of showers/thunderstorms. Rainfall rates
greater than one inch per hour could occur, leading to
isolated/scattered instances of flash flooding. This potential
will be greatest across the upper Hudson Valley and southern VT,
including portions of northern Saratoga County where heavy
rainfall fell last evening. A Flood Watch for flash flooding is
in effect for this area where the potential of flash flooding is
greatest this afternoon/early evening.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for
     NYZ041>043-083-084.
MA...None.
VT...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for
     VTZ013>015.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
452 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>040-047>054-058>061-063>066-082-
051100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-
Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-
Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-
Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-Northern Fulton-
452 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts, east central New York and eastern New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and early evening. A few instances of large hail and
damaging wind gusts will be possible. In addition, isolated flash
flooding will be possible where multiple heavy downpours occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Monday afternoon into Monday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NYZ041>043-083-084-VTZ013>015-051100-
Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-Northern Washington-
Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-
Eastern Windham-
452 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central New York and
southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

In addition, there is a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. A few instances of
large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Monday afternoon into Monday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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