Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
409 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the area bringing showers and
thunderstorms into this evening, some of which could become
severe. Locally heavy downpours will also be possible. In the
wake of the front, high pressure will bring seasonably warm
temperatures and less humid conditions for the weekend, before
another system brings additional showers and thunderstorms early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect for all of eastern New
  York and western New England until 8 pm

* Flood Watch for flash flooding in effect for Warren,
  Washington, northern Saratoga Counties in NY, and all of
  southern VT until 9 pm

Strong to severe thunderstorms and localized flash flooding
have been affecting areas west of the Hudson Valley this far,
with one severe storm along the northern end of Lake George.
Southern Herkimer County has seen multiple rounds of severe
storms and torrential rainfall today. Storm modes have been
transient supercells and multicell clusters with the latest 19Z
UAlbany special sounding showing 1956 J/Kg SBCAPE and 38 kt of
0-6 km shear. These values have increased since the 15Z
sounding. Also 700-500 mb lapse rates of 6.8 degC/Km, resulting
in hail occurring in many storms. Damaging wind gusts and large
hail will continue to be the main threats, with localized flash
flooding as well. We have seen rotation with some of the taller
and more persistent cores, with mid level mesocyclones.

Showers and storms should end from NW to SE this evening, as
the disturbance and cold front move east well into New England.
Winds will shift to the northwest behind the system, with drier
air filtering in overnight. Low temperatures will be in the 50s
to lower 60s.

Saturday looks to be much drier with more comfortable humidity
levels, as high pressure builds SE from the Great Lakes.
Dewpoints drop into the the 50s through the day with the drier
air mass and NW winds promoting good mixing conditions. High
temperatures should be close to normal, with lower 80s in
valleys.

Dry and cool conditions expected Sat night, as high pressure
builds directly over our region. Lows will range from the
mid/upper 40s in the mountains to 50s in the valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Dry and tranquil conditions expected on Sunday, as high
pressure remains over the region while only slightly shifting
eastward through the day. Heights aloft will be rising, so
abundant sunshine should occur along with normal high
temperatures for early August with mainly lower 80s in valleys
and 70s in the higher terrain. Humidity should remain
comfortable with dewpoints in the 50s

Sunday night should be continued dry. High pressure will shift
eastward towards the New England coast, with a milder southerly
flow developing around the periphery of the departing high. An
approaching warm front may bring some extra clouds late. Lows
expected to range from the lower 50s to lower 60s.

A warm front associated with a fairly strong cyclone(MSLP
anomalies of -3 to -4 STDEV) tracking NE through the central
Great Lakes is expected to move northward across our area on
Monday. Guidance has generally showed a slowing trend with this
system, so it may take much of the day for the warm front to
progress across our area. So high temperatures were lowered a
few degrees from the previous forecast. Will mention chance PoPs
associated with the warm front passage west of the Hudson
Valley, but the better dynamics aloft should be displaced
farther south/west associated with a strong short wave. Due to
the slower timing, the main threat of strong to severe storms
should be west of our area late Monday.

The likelihood of showers and thunderstorms increase Mon night
as the short wave and its associated cold front start to push
through. Unfavorable time of day for severe storms, but locally
heavy rainfall will be possible as PWAT anomalies increase to +1
to +2 STDEV. It will be mild and muggy Mon night with lows in
the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Based on the slower timing of the aforementioned system, the
main upper level short wave and surface front are expected to
move through during the first half of Tuesday. So will mention
chance PoPs for showers/T-storms although again due to
unfavorable timing and not much opportunity for any significant
destabilization, potential for severe storms looks low at this
time.

Tuesday night through Wednesday should be dry with seasonable
temperatures, as ridging both at the surface and aloft build
eastward across the area. The next chance of showers/T-storms
arrive Thursday into Friday, as another progressive upper level
trough and surface cold front approach from the west and move
across the area. Will mention chance PoPs for now until features
come into better focus in the upcoming days. Temperatures
expected to be near to slightly above normal through much of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18z/Sat...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected through this afternoon. Any thunderstorm could contain
strong to damaging wind gusts and large hail. Window for these
storms is between 18z/Fri to 02z/Sat. Flight categories will
range anywhere from IFR to VFR. Any heavier thunderstorms could
even reduce vsbys to LIFR for a brief time. Will monitor and
amend TAF sites when needed.

Showers will end this evening, then high pressure will build
into the region for Saturday. Patchy fog may develop tonight at
all sites. VFR conditions are then expected on Saturday with
some fair weather cumulus and passing cirrus.

Wind will be south to southwesterly at around 10 kt through this
afternoon, then trend light to calm tonight. Wind will then be
north to northwesterly at 5-10 kt on Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There is the potential for multiple rounds of heavy downpours to
occur into this evening due to possible backbuilding/training
of showers/thunderstorms. Rainfall rates greater than one inch
per hour could occur, leading to isolated/scattered instances of
flash flooding. This potential will be greatest across the
upper Hudson Valley and southern VT, including portions of
northern Saratoga County where heavy rainfall fell last night. A
Flood Watch for flash flooding remains in effect for this area
where the potential of flash flooding is greatest into early
evening.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ041>043-083-084.
MA...None.
VT...Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for VTZ013>015.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Rathbun
HYDROLOGY...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
1225 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>040-047>054-058>061-063>066-082-
051100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-
Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-
Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-
Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-Northern Fulton-
1225 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 584 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts, east central New York and eastern New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Monday afternoon into Monday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested through 8 pm today.

NYZ041>043-083-084-VTZ013>015-051100-
Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-Northern Washington-
Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-
Eastern Windham-
1225 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 584 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central New York and
southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Monday afternoon into Monday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested through 8 pm today.

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