Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
140 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system and a cold front will bring some
showers and thunderstorms to eastern New York and western New
England today into tonight. The unsettled weather continues
Wednesday into Thursday with scattered showers due to an upper low
over northern New England.  Temperatures will run cooler than normal
to close the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Smoke and haze over the region with a few isolated showers and
thunderstorms forming. Showers and thunderstorms track south
through the afternoon and evening. Temperatures will hold near
current forecasted highs in the 60s to lower 70s. Midlevel lapse
rates are steep and CAPEs could approach 1000 j/kg in some
areas but shear is weak. Some dry air at low level and midlevels
could enhance downdrafts in deeper thunderstorms. Some hail is
possible as well. SPC has much of our area in a marginal risk
for severe thunderstorms, so an isolated damaging wind gust or
large hail is possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tonight...Any convection should weaken with the loss of the
diurnal heating. In the cyclonic flow, isolated to scattered
showers will linger and it will be cool. Lows fall back into the
40s with a few upper 30s over the eastern Catskills.

Wednesday the upper low moves over Northern New England. Heights
fall a couple STDEVs below normal with H850 temps -1 to -2
STDEVS below normal. The cyclonic vorticity with the mid and
upper level low will focus some scattered showers. It will be
cool with temps in the upper 50s over the northern zones to the
lower 70s in the mid Hudson Valley. Overall, highs will be about
5-7 degrees below normal.

Wed night through Thursday more coolish weather will impact the
forecast area for June with isolated to scattered showers Wed
evening with the coverage becoming less overnight. Lows will
again be in the 40s. Thursday, expect showers to ignite timed to
the diurnal heating with the closed/cutoff low hanging on over
Maine. Highs will struggle to clear the 60s with 50s over the
mtns. The rainfall is much needed after an anomalously dry May.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Unsettled weather and normal to cooler than normal temperatures can
be expected during the long-term forecast period. Global
deterministic models and ensembles continue to advertise a large mid-
upper trough over the Northeast U.S. late week. While this feature
will slowly slide off/depart to the east late week into the weekend,
it will bring chances for diurnal showers and maybe a few
thunderstorms.

Sunday into the early parts of next week, forecast models are
suggesting a more widespread chance for rain (showers and perhaps
thunder) as a cold front approaches and moves over the area.

As highlighted earlier, temperatures are expected to run near normal
to cooler than normal levels during the period thanks to the mid-
upper trough that will be in place. High temperatures on Friday are
expected to be in the 60s areawide with areas along the river
valleys near 70F. Saturday through Tuesday, highs are expected to be
mainly in the mid 70s along the river valleys (60s higher
elevations). Overnight low temperatures will mainly be in the 40s
and 50s about the area during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Scattered showers/thunderstorms will affect areas mainly near
and east of the Hudson River through sunset, with brief periods
of IFR Vsbys possible. Some of the thunderstorms could contain
gusty winds and small hail. Outside of any showers/thunderstorms,
smoke/haze will keep Vsbys mainly MVFR through this evening
across the region as smoke from eastern Canadian wildfires
continues to stream into the region. Vsbys may improve later
tonight into Wednesday morning from north to south.

Some patchy fog could form tonight as breaks in the clouds
develop, especially within any areas which receive afternoon
shower/storms. This could lead to periods of IFR Vsbys/Cigs,
with best chances at KGFL and KPSF.

Winds will be west to northwest at 5-10 KT through sunset, then
shift into the north at generally less than 8 KT tonight. Winds
will be north to northwest at 8-12 KT Wednesday, with a few
gusts of 15-20 KT possible by early afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Evbuoma
AVIATION...KL

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