Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
346 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system and a cold front will bring some
showers and thunderstorms to eastern New York and western New
England through this evening. The unsettled weather continues
Wednesday into Thursday with scattered showers due to an upper
low over northern New England. Temperatures will run cooler than
normal to close the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Smoke and haze over the region with isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms. upper impulse dropping south along
with the leading edge of colder air providing the upper dynamics
and forcing for the thunderstorms. Steep midlevel lapse rates
are supporting strong to severe thunderstorms. These
thunderstorms will weaken through the evening as instability
decreases. Other area of scattered showers and thunderstorms in
northern NY will track south and weaken through the evening.

Scattered showers decrease in coverage through the night and
some breaks in the clouds possible outside of the showers
through daybreak. However, smoke and haze will continue. Lows
tonight in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper low east of New England with moisture and small upper
impulses tracking around the circulation of the upper low will
affect our region Wednesday through Friday. As cooling spreads
through our region from the north, the clouds and periods of
showers will keep temperatures well below normal through the
period.

Highs Wednesday in the mid 60s to lower 70s with around 60
higher terrain. Highs Thursday in the lower to mid 60s with
upper 50s higher terrain. Highs Friday in the 60s to near 70
with around 60 higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Somewhat unsettled conditions may linger into the upcoming weekend
and early next week, as initial upper level low/trough slowly shifts
eastward, only to be replaced by another one from the west. The
exact track/evolution of the second upper level low remains
uncertain, as it could develop/track farther south of the region. At
this time, have chances for showers through much of the extended,
however there is a possibility for some dry stretches Sun-Mon,
especially should the second upper level low evolve slower and/or
tracks farther south.

Temps should trend closer to normal, with daytime highs mainly in
the 70s, perhaps near 80 early next week, with overnight lows
generally in the 50s, although some 40s are possible across higher
elevations.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Scattered showers/thunderstorms will affect areas mainly near
and east of the Hudson River through sunset, with brief periods
of IFR Vsbys possible. Some of the thunderstorms could contain
gusty winds and small hail. Outside of any showers/thunderstorms,
smoke/haze will keep Vsbys mainly MVFR through this evening
across the region as smoke from eastern Canadian wildfires
continues to stream into the region. Vsbys may improve later
tonight into Wednesday morning from north to south.

Some patchy fog could form tonight as breaks in the clouds
develop, especially within any areas which receive afternoon
shower/storms. This could lead to periods of IFR Vsbys/Cigs,
with best chances at KGFL and KPSF.

Winds will be west to northwest at 5-10 KT through sunset, then
shift into the north at generally less than 8 KT tonight. Winds
will be north to northwest at 8-12 KT Wednesday, with a few
gusts of 15-20 KT possible by early afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
354 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-071100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-
Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-
Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-
Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-
Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-
Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
354 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts, east central New York, eastern New York and
southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected through this evening.
Thunderstorms will move north to south. There could be some isolated
large hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

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