Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
439 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Outside of an isolated shower or two, Saturday will be
mainly dry with continued warm and humid weather conditions.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms containing heavy downpours are
expected across the area throughout the day on Sunday. Showers and
thunderstorms are once again possible on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
***A Flood Watch remains in effect for Hamilton, Warren,
 Washington, Fulton, and Montgomery Counties till 10 PM EDT
 tonight***

Warm, humid, and at times active/wet weather pattern will be the
theme during both the near and short term periods.

Showers and thunderstorms over the area this afternoon will
gradually wane in coverage and intensity this evening with the loss
of daytime heating. With the frontal boundary still off to our west
over western New York, tonight will be continued warm and muggy with
overnight low temperatures in the mid to upper 60s most places and
similar dewpoint values. Abundant low level moisture coupled with
any break of clearing could result in the development of some patchy
fog and/or low stratus clouds tonight. There could be some patchy
areas of dense fog in spots with dewpoint depressions at 3F degrees
or less.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Points for Sunday's Flood Risk Potential:

* Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected across eastern New
  York and western New England.

* Total rainfall amounts from Sunday morning to Monday morning is
  expected to range between 1.50-3.00 inches with locally higher
  amounts.

* The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has the entire forecast area
  under a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall for Sunday into Monday.

* Heaviest rainfall is expected to occur Sunday evening through
  Monday morning.

* Flooding/flash flooding including urban and poor drainage is
  possible. Rises on area rivers and streams are also expected (see
  Hydro discussion for further details).

Saturday: The cool frontal boundary associated with a nearby
low pressure system is expected to be just along or east of the
Hudson River Valley with a weak narrow surface high to our west.
This should allow for a mainly dry day on Saturday. There could
however be some spotty showers especially along and east of the
aforementioned frontal boundary. Overall, the setup should
result in a brief reprieve for many of us here in eastern New
York and western New England.

Daytime high temperatures are progged to climb into the mid to upper
80s (cooler higher elevations). Quiet/dry weather should persist
Saturday night with overnight low temperatures expected to be
in the mid to upper 60s (50s SW ADKs).

Sunday: Wet/active weather resumes on Sunday. Global forecast models
and ensembles continue to advertise the aforementioned frontal
boundary stalling over the area with another storm system emerging
out of the Ohio Valley. The combination of these two weather
features coupled with a favorable jet structure, a plume
precipitable water (PWAT) values ranging between 1.50-2.00+ inches
(+1 to +2 STDEVs above normal), and wet antecedent soils from recent
rains will increase the prospects of flooding over the area. The
bulk of the rain is expected to occur Sunday evening into Monday.
Given the tropical regime in place, showers and thunderstorms will
have the chance for moderate to heavy downpours. Overall, anywhere
from 1.75-3.00 inches is forecast over the area. A Flood Watch may
be needed in the hours ahead leading up to this event.

High temperatures on Sunday are expected to be in the upper 70s to
near 80F along the river valleys (cooler higher elevations).

Monday: The heavy rain threat wanes from west to east on Monday as
the front and low pressure system positions itself east of the area.
There could however be some additional rainfall during the day on
Monday with the storm system still nearby.

High temperatures on Monday are expected to be in the upper 70s
(cooler higher elevations).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The weather pattern looks to remain the same during the long-
term period: warm to very warm and humid, and at times
active/wet.

Monday night through Wednesday, the forecast area will be in
between storm systems. That said, we have to continue monitor
trends as to if and how much precipitation we get during this
timeframe. Have chance PoPs for parts of our area on both
Tuesday and Wednesday. Very warm temperatures and humid
conditions are expected each day with high temperatures expected
to climb into the upper 80s along the river valleys.

Beyond this time period, Thursday and Friday, confidence is
stronger for our next widespread rainfall as global forecast
models and ensembles are suggesting another storm system
impacting the area. High temperatures are expected to be
slightly cooler given the cloud cover and rain chances with
values in the low to mid 80s along the river valleys.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18z Saturday...
Two main weather concerns for the terminals during the 18z TAF
cycle is:

1) Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening that
could reduce flight categories to MVFR-IFR levels, and

2) The potential for fog/low stratus development tonight that could
reduce categories to MVFR-LIFR levels.

VFR conditions are currently ongoing across all the TAF sites with
cloud bases between 4,000-12,000 feet AGL. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are ongoing across the area with two main batches: one
over the SW Adirondacks and another from southern Vermont into the
Capital Region into the Catskills. There's some vicinity thunder
around KALB and KGFL with the ongoing convection in the area this
afternoon. There's potential for showers and thunderstorms to impact
the terminals this afternoon into this evening. Greatest confidence
is over KALB and KGFL given current observations and forecast
trends. Have TEMPO groups for all of the sites however.

Later this evening and especially tonight, there's the potential for
some fog/low stratus developing over the TAF sites given the ample
amount of low level moisture in place. Any fog could be locally
dense over KGFL/KALB/KPSF. Any fog/low stratus will have the
potential for reducing cigs/vsbys to MVFR-LIFR levels.

Any fog/low stratus should burn off Saturday morning with things
improving back to VFR levels.

Winds are expected to be light and variable if not slightly out of
the south between 4-10 kts this afternoon. Winds are expected to
trend towards calm tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A few additional showers and thunderstorms are possible on
Saturday. While coverage looks less than today, it will
continue to be humid, so locally high rainfall rates can't be
ruled out once again.

More widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected
for Sunday into Sunday night. Much of the area is in a Slight
Risk for Excessive Rainfall. At this time, 1.00 to 3.00 inches
of rainfall is expected, with the heaviest totals across the
high terrain of the Catskills, Berkshires and southern VT.
Street flooding and sharp rises on small streams is expected to
occur on Sunday into Sunday night. Some flash flooding will be
possible, especially for areas that see heavy rainfall on Fri,
as soils are starting to become wetter due to the recent
rainfall. Urban areas will also be susceptible to a flood
threat. A Flood Watch for flash flooding may be needed for
Sunday into Sunday night. While main stem rivers should
generally remain within their banks, some smaller flashier
streams could approach flood stage, depending on how much
and how fast rainfall occurs.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for NYZ033-039-040-
     042-043-082>084.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Evbuoma
NEAR TERM...Evbuoma
SHORT TERM...Evbuoma
LONG TERM...Evbuoma
AVIATION...Evbuoma
HYDROLOGY...Evbuoma/Frugis

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
444 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2023

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-038-041-047>054-058>061-063>066-
VTZ013>015-081200-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Southern Herkimer-
Northern Saratoga-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-
Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-
Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-
Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-
Eastern Dutchess-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
444 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts, east central New York, eastern New York and
southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorm are expected to continue into this evening.
A few thunderstorms will be capable of producing gusty winds, mainly
for the Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley, where this is a Marginal Risk
for severe thunderstorms. The main threat from any thunderstorm will
be heavy downpours, which may result of ponding of water in urban,
low lying and poor drainage areas. Isolated flash flooding is
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms again on Saturday. More widespread
showers and thunderstorms are also expected on Sunday. Showers and
thunderstorms on Sunday will contain heavy rainfall, which may once
again result in flooding of urban and low lying areas. Flash flooding
is possible for areas that see repeated heavy downpours and a Flood
Watch for flash flooding could be needed.

In addition, there will continue to be a chance for thunderstorms
Monday through Thursday, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NYZ033-039-040-042-043-082>084-081200-
Hamilton-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Warren-
Northern Washington-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-
Southern Washington-
444 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central New York and
eastern New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms again on Saturday. More widespread
showers and thunderstorms are also expected on Sunday. Showers and
thunderstorms on Sunday will contain heavy rainfall, which may once
again result in flooding of urban and low lying areas. Flash flooding
is possible for areas that see repeated heavy downpours and a Flood
Watch for flash flooding could be needed.

In addition, there will continue to be a chance for thunderstorms
Monday through Thursday, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary
National Weather Service Albany NY
440 PM EDT Fri Jul 07 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     Flood            Canajoharie             42.91N  74.57W
07/07/2023                   Montgomery         NY   Trained Spotter

            Route 5s flooded in the Town of Canajoharie near exit
            29 of the New York State Thruway.

0300 PM     Flood            Fonda                   42.95N  74.38W
07/07/2023                   Montgomery         NY   Trained Spotter

            Culvert overflowing with six inches of water over
            portions of Route 5 and Broadway near Fonda

0325 PM     Flood            Lake George             43.42N  73.71W
07/07/2023                   Warren             NY   Trained Spotter

            Standing water on Beach Road in Lake George Village

0404 PM     Flash Flood      West Day                43.27N  74.07W
07/07/2023                   Saratoga           NY   Amateur Radio

            Mudslide blocking the intersection of Shields Road and
            North Shore Road due to heavy rainfall

0410 PM     Flash Flood      1 N Edinburg            43.25N  74.09W
07/07/2023                   Saratoga           NY   Emergency Mngr

            Northshore Road washed out near Lakeland Road.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY2303060 ALY2303061 ALY2303062 ALY2303063 ALY2303064

SND

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