Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
452 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will be stalled near eastern New York and
western New England this afternoon and linger through the weekend.
This will result in continued unsettled and humid weather with
chances of showers and thunderstorms, especially during the
afternoon and evening hours. Some storms may become severe producing
damaging wind gusts and possibly large hail into tonight south and
east Albany.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 430 PM EDT...Severe thunderstorm Watch #675 has been
issued until 11 pm EDT for western New England, the eastern
Capital District including Albany, the Taconics, eastern
Catskills and the mid Hudson Valley.

A few warnings have been issues for southeast VT, Albany and
Columbia, and Litchfield Counties.

Sfc dewpoints remain in the 60s lower 70s. It will not be as
warm today with clouds and the first boundary hung up near
southern NY and eastern New England. PWATs remain above normal
in the 1.5-1.8" range on the SPC Mesoanalysis. MLCAPEs have
risen to 1000-3000 J/kg over the Taconics, eastern Capital
District, the Mid Hudson Valley, southern VT, Berkshires and NW
CT. The effective bulk shear has increased 20-30 KT. Multicell
clusters or lines may form in the watch area. Less of a severe
threat to the north and west as the next boundary approaches and
more cloud cover inhibits instability. Damaging winds will be
the main threat from wet microbursts and bowing segments. Large
hail can not be ruled out.

We will have to watch for isolated flash flooding due to
rainfall rates increasing to 1"/hr. At the very least small
stream and poor drainage flooding is possible and some Flood
Advisory products have been issued.

Showers and storms will gradually decrease in intensity and
coverage prior to midnight with the waning instability. We kept
a slight chance of thunderstorms until midnight to 2 am. Lows
will still be muggy with lower to upper 60s, except across the
southern Dacks and eastern Catskills some upper 50s are
possible.  Patchy fog may form in some of the valley  areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Tomorrow...The frontal boundary remains stalled over southern NY
and west-central New England. Some spotty showers may occur in
the morning. It will remain mostly cloudy and humid. High
pressure will try to ridge in from the Great Lakes Region and
southeast Ontario and Quebec. The entire day does not look like
a washout, but after some patchy fog and stratus. PWATs continue
to run above normal in the 1.25-1.75" range over +1 to +2
STDEVs above normal. The best instability looks like it will be
south and east of Albany based on the HREFs with mean SBCAPEs of
1000-2000 J/kg with 0-6 km bulk shear values of 20-25 KT. SPC
put the entire area in a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms.
Again, a few isolated severes may be possible south and east of
I-90. Locally heavy rainfall is possible. WPC continues to have
the entire area in a Marginal Risk. Can't rule out an isolated
flash flood. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s in the
major valleys and upper 60s to mid 70s over the mtns.

The showers and storms should weaken with the loss of the
diurnal heating and diminishing instability. Some patchy fog or
low stratus may form again. Lows will be in the 60s with some
upper 50s over the higher terrain west of the Hudson River
Valley.

Sunday-Sunday night...The boundary may shift slightly westward
over southern NY and the eastern NY and western New England
border with multiple weak waves of low pressure moving along
it. Severe threat looks less despite moderate instability. Some
locally heavy rainfall is possible with elevated PWATS. Still
can not rule out an isolated flash flood. Periods of rain are
possible in the afternoon into the evening. Highs will be in the
70s with some upper 60s over the mountains. The showers/rainfall
will linger at night. Could see some widespread half inch to
inch rainfall amounts. The showers may dwindle towards daybreak
with lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term period opens on Monday with increasing rain chances
downstream of an approaching trough axis. Weak positive vorticity
advection coupled with modest height falls will result in increasing
chances for precipitation. The greatest coverage is expected south
and east of Albany in closer proximity to the stalled frontal
boundary. Slightly weaker forcing for ascent on Tuesday should
hinder the overall coverage of showers and storms. That being said,
we still cannot rule out any isolated, diurnally-driven activity.

A vertically stacked low pressure system is then anticipated to
impact the ALY CWA beginning late Tuesday night through the end of
the day on Wednesday. Increasing moisture associated with south
southwesterly 300 mb flow on the order of 50-75 kt will result in
PWATs near 1.50". Thus, locally heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out
during this period.

Forecast uncertainty then increases towards the end of the period
for Thursday and Friday. At this vantage point, it does appear that
unsettled conditions may be in store as a sharp upper-level trough
approaches from the Great Lakes Region. The forecast may also be
dependent on the eventual track of Hurricane Lee. It is far too
early to get into specifics. For now, please continue to monitor the
latest forecast from hurricanes.gov.

A return to much more seasonable to even slightly below normal
temperatures are expected beginning on Tuesday. High temperatures in
the valleys are expected to only reach the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18z Saturday...VFR conditions prevail at all terminals,
though KGFL has bounced a bit between VFR and MVFR ceilings through
this afternoon. A TEMPO group was included in the TAFs to account
for any further lowered ceilings here through much of the afternoon.

A secondary cold front will move through the region later this
afternoon and into tonight, creating the threat of showers and
thunderstorms across the area. The spatial spread of convection will
not be as great as yesterday, however, it is still likely that the
terminals will experience at least showers at some point during the
18z TAF period. Based on latest guidance, the most likely time for
showers and thunderstorms looks to fall between 03-10z. The terminal
more likely to see a thunderstorm looks to be KPOU, so a PROB30
group was included to account for this possibility. It is
possible that some thunder develop elsewhere, but confidence is
not high. Will monitor conditions throughout the afternoon and
into this evening and make amendments where needed.

Upon convective activity ceasing across the area, MVFR ceilings may
persist through mid-morning/early afternoon before VFR conditions
return. Winds throughout the period will be relatively light mainly
out of the northwest with sustained speeds of 2-5 kt. It is possible
for a stronger gust to occur where thunderstorms develop, however
this will be highly isolated.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Gant/Belkin
AVIATION...Gant

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
504 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ051>054-058>061-063>066-VTZ013>015-091100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-
Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-
Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-
Eastern Dutchess-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
504 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 675 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts, portions of eastern New York and southern
Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Storms will also be capable of heavy downpours that could result in
localized flooding of urban, poor drainage and low lying areas with
isolated flash flooding possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Saturday, Sunday and Monday,
mainly during the afternoon to evening hours each day.

Some of the thunderstorms may be severe Saturday afternoon into the
evening with damaging winds the main threat.

Storms will be capable of heavy downpours that could result in
localized flooding of urban, poor drainage and low lying areas with
isolated flash flooding possible through the weekend into early next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should send severe weather reports to the National Weather
Service.

NYZ032-033-038>043-047>050-082>084-091100-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-
Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-Northern Washington-
Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-
Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-
504 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated strong thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into
tonight.

Storms will also be capable of heavy downpours that could result in
localized flooding of urban, poor drainage and low lying areas with
isolated flash flooding possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Saturday, Sunday and Monday,
mainly during the afternoon to evening hours each day.

Some of the thunderstorms may be severe Saturday afternoon into the
evening with damaging winds the main threat.

Storms will be capable of heavy downpours that could result in
localized flooding of urban, poor drainage and low lying areas with
isolated flash flooding possible during the weekend into early next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should send severe weather reports to the National Weather
Service.

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