Severe Thunderstorm Warning 130, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
754 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will approach from the west tonight. The
system will stall across the region Friday and linger through
the weekend keeping the forecast unsettled with showers and
thunderstorms especially during the afternoon into the evening.
Some storms may become severe producing damaging wind gusts and
possibly large hail into this evening and again Friday afternoon
into the evening. In addition, storms will be capable of
locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #673 remains in effect until 9 pm for
eastern NY.

The Heat Advisory the Mohawk and Hudson Valleys, central/southern
Taconics, CT River Valley of southern VT and northern Litchfield
was allowed to expire as planned at 7 pm. The heat advisory for
southern Litchfield County was cancelled at 7 pm.

The isolated convection that has been occurring across the area
has produced some large hail and some downed trees.

The upper ridge axis will continue to shift eastward and a short
wave trough is on the approach and but will lift northeast into
eastern Canada tonight. Embedded short waves will move through
the deep southwest flow across the region.

SPC mesoscale analysis indicates MUCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg across
the area, mid-level lapse rates are 6-6.5 C/km however low
level lapse rates are around 7 C/km, DCAPE of 800-1000 generally
along and east of the Hudson River Valley, and surface to 3 km
bulk shear around 25 knots. Some strong to severe thunderstorms
continue to be possible with convection moving across the local
areas through the evening.

Precipitable water values are around 1.5 inches so storms are
capable of heavy downpours. Localized flooding of urban, poor
drainage and low lying areas and isolated flash flooding are
possible.

Another muggy and warm night across the area with lows in the
60s to around 70 degrees. Stratus and fog is expected to form
especially where it rains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon
into the evening.

The short wave trough will shear out and pass to our Friday
while short waves continue to move through the deep southwest
flow across the region. At the surface, a cold front pushed
eastward into the region and it expected to stall. This boundary
and terrain-induced heating will provide focus for convection.
The threat for strong to severe storms will diminish with loss
of heating.

The threat for convection will continue through Saturday night
with the boundary stalled across the region and short wave
moving through the flow.

It will be very warm and humid Friday but not like the last
couple days. No new heat advisory have been issued. Warmer and
more humid to the south and east of the boundary with cooler
readings to the north and west. Seasonable temperatures
expected Saturday but still humid.

Precipitable water values will remain high so storms will be
capable of locally heavy downpours.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long term period period will feature persistent upper troughing
over and west of our region, which will lead to unsettled conditions
through much of the long term. Sunday into Monday, we will have a
stalled frontal boundary located over the region and multiple
shortwave disturbances aloft tracking over the region. This will
lead to multiple rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms,
especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Most of the
region will be in play Sunday, although the best chance for
showers/storms Monday will be east and south of Albany as the
boundary slowly creeps eastwards. We may dry out briefly Tuesday as
the front moves off to the east and we see some weak height rises
aloft, but another upper trough diving down towards the Great Lakes
towards mid-week will bring additional chances for showers Tuesday
night into Thursday.

Daytime highs will be near to slightly above normal to start the
long term Sunday through Tuesday, although overnight lows will be
above normal with lows in the 50s for the high terrain and low 60s
for valley areas. High temperatures trend to slightly below normal
Wednesday and Thursday, although overnight lows both days will still
remain near to even slightly above normal. The CPC expects near
normal temperatures and is leaning towards above normal precip for
the 8-14 day timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...VFR conditions are currently taking place at
the terminals as of this update with a SCT-BKN deck of stratus
and/or cumulus clouds overhead with cloud heights between 5,000-
10,000 feet AGL and unrestricted visibilities. The first wave of
showers and storms are pushing out of the forecast area. There is a
vicinity thunderstorm over KGFL. A second round of showers and
storms are expected to impact the TAF sites later this evening into
tonight. VFR conditions will continue unless a shower or
thunderstorm develops or moves over the forecast area.

Once showers and storms move out over the area later tonight, focus
shifts to the potential for low stratus/mist/fog given the light
winds and humid conditions. The amount of cloud coverage will
determine whether or not there will be enough clearing for low
stratus/fog/mist. Greatest confidence for low stratus/mist/fog is
over KGFL and KPSF. Otherwise, expect for VFR conditions to persist
through the night. VFR conditions will continue during the day on
Friday. However, there's another round of showers and storms during
the afternoon/evening hours that could reduce cigs/visibilities.

Winds are expected to continue out of the south-southwest between 3-
6 kts tonight before picking up in speed between 5-10 kts on
Friday.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Monday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Highs for Sep 7
ALB 96 (1945)- today 93 degrees
GFL 92 (2015)- today 90 degrees
POU 98 (1943)- today 93 degrees

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Main
AVIATION...Evbuoma
CLIMATE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
720 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084-081100-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-
Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-Northern Washington-
Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-
Western Albany-Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-
Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-
720 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 673 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central New York and
eastern New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

In addition, storms will be capable of heavy downpours that could
result in localized flooding of urban, poor drainage and low lying
areas and isolated flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon into the
evening. The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal to slight risk
across most of the area.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Saturday, Sunday and Monday
afternoons into the evening.

Storms will be capable of heavy downpours that could result in
localized flooding of urban, poor drainage and low lying areas with
isolated flash flooding possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-VTZ013>015-081100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
720 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening.
The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal to slight risk across
the area.

In addition, storms will be capable of heavy downpours that could
result in localized flooding of urban, poor drainage and low lying
areas and isolated flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon into the
evening. The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal to slight risk
across most of the area.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Saturday, Sunday and Monday
afternoons into the evening.

Storms will be capable of heavy downpours that could result in
localized flooding of urban, poor drainage and low lying areas with
isolated flash flooding possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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