Tornado Warning 11, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
829 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach the area from the west this evening,
resulting in increased chances for showers and thunderstorms,
some of which may be severe. Seasonable weather expected for the
remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 825 PM EDT Monday...

Added Severe T-Storm Watch 611 for NE NC counties until 11 pm,
as southern shortwave crosses the Carolinas.

Area continues to be split by shortwaves, which has served to
enhance convective inhibition over central and southern portions
of the area. This was accounted for in lower PoPs over southern
half of the area, but it seems to be verifying to a stronger
degree than previously modeled.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM EDT Monday...

Cooler, drier air pushes into the region post-frontal Tuesday on
breezy NW winds. Winds will gust to 20-30 mph late Tue morning
into the afternoon, highest along the coast. Dewpoints look to
drop into the upper 50s to ~60 across the piedmont into RIC
metro area. Closer to the coast, dewpoints will likely stay in
the mid-60s. Highs will be in the 80s inland and the low 90s
across the SE coast.

Remaining dry and seasonable across the area on Wednesday. After
lows in the 60s on Tuesday night, look for highs in the upper 80s to
near 90 on Wednesday. Dewpoints will continue to be relatively
pleasant in the low-mid 60s. Skies will still be mostly sunny. Lows
will again be in the 60s Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Monday...

Rain chances return to the forecast on Thursday, with the east coast
trough rebuilding by late week. As the trough axis swings east,
the lead shortwave pivots across the area. Meanwhile, low-level
flow will nudge the stationary frontal boundary back northward
later Thursday into Friday, further enhancing llvl moisture. CMC
is a fast outlier with this system, with the vast majority of
guidance later. Therefore nudged increasing PoPs a bit later
into Thursday afternoon and evening over the local area.

For Friday and the weekend, there will be diurnal chances
for a few showers/storms. For now, keeping PoPs limited to the 15-
30% range. Highs will generally be in the upper 80s to low 90s
Thurs- Sun. Lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 825 PM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions in place over area terminals to begin the TAF
period. Showers and thunderstorms have split local terminals,
mainly north and south of the area. Still expect SBY will be
impacted by sub-VFR conditions between 01-05z (9 pm-1 am),
and ECG could see brief sub-VFR conditions between 02-04z
(10p-midnight). Gusty winds and IFR VIS with reduced CIGs will
be possible with any storms. Storms move offshore late tonight.
SSW winds turn NNW late tonight.

Outlook: Predominantly VFR conditions Tues and Wed with gusty W
winds 15-17 kt with gusts 20-25 kt Tuesday afternoon behind the
cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 PM EDT Monday...

Late this aftn, a sfc trough was setting up over the VA
Piedmont, while a cold front was pushing through ESE Ohio and
ern KY. Winds were mainly SSE 10-20 kt over the waters. Waves
were 1-3 ft and seas were 2-3 ft. Low pressure and the associated
cold front push E this evening. A SSE wind of 10-15 kt will
continue, with gusts to ~20 kt. Strong to severe tstms will
develop ahead of the cold front during this evening. No flags
will be issued at this time given that the wind outside of tstms
should primarily be sub-SCA. However, SMWs are likely with any
tstms this evening.

The cold front pushes through the area later tonight into Tue
morning. The wind is expected to become WSW 10-15 kt with gusts
to 20 kt late tonight, and then W/WNW Tue morning. A brief period
of SCA conditions are possible for the Bay late tonight/early
Tue morning, as drier air arrives into the region. The wind
becomes NW 5-10 kt S to 10-15 kt N by early Wed morning. Seas
build to 3-4ft tonight, then 2-3 ft S to 3-4 ft N Tue, with
waves in the Bay ~2 ft and occasionally up to 3 ft. Seas subside
to 2-3 ft by Wed, as the wind diminishes and shifts from W to
SSE. A SSW wind of 10-15 kt returns Thu, and then shifts to W
and diminishes Fri behind a weak cold front. Seas potentially
build to 3-4 ft later Thu/Thu night, and then subside to 2-3 ft
by Fri.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AM/MAM
LONG TERM...AM/MAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...AJZ/TMG

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
912 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     Hail             1 NNW Fort A.p. Hill    38.12N 77.27W
08/07/2023  E1.75 inch       Caroline           VA   Trained Spotter

            Corrects previous hail report from 1 NNW
            Fort A.p. Hill. Golf ball sized hail
            reported near Fort AP Hill.

&&

05

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