Storm Warning 2, NWS Juneau, AK

743 
FZAK52 PAJK 011306
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
406 AM AKST Sun Jan 1 2023

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-020715-
406 AM AKST Sun Jan 1 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Southerly Gale to Storm force winds will move across the Gulf
through Sunday. As the associated front tracks east, gusty winds
will peak over the inner channels Sunday afternoon. 

$$

PKZ041-020715-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
406 AM AKST Sun Jan 1 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.MON NIGHT...S gale to 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.TUE...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-020715-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
406 AM AKST Sun Jan 1 2023

...STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt. Seas 29 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt late. Seas 26 ft.
Rain in the evening. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.TUE...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.WED...E gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 18 ft
subsiding to 14 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-020715-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
406 AM AKST Sun Jan 1 2023

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 31 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt late. Seas 25 ft.
Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.TUE...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.WED...SE gale to 40 kt becoming E 30 kt. Seas 21 ft
subsiding to 15 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-020715-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
406 AM AKST Sun Jan 1 2023

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 32 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of interior bays and
passes. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of interior bays and
passes. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.TUE...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-020715-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
406 AM AKST Sun Jan 1 2023

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE wind 50 kt diminishing to 35 kt this afternoon. Seas 
31 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TUE...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

106 
FZAK52 PAJK 020024
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
324 PM AKST Sun Jan 1 2023

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-021830-
324 PM AKST Sun Jan 1 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Southerly gale force winds to 45 kt over the eastern Gulf of
Alaska will steadily diminish through Monday. The associated
parent low will remain near Kodiak Island and weaken through
Monday night. Outlook: Another gale force low will enter the
south-central Gulf on Tuesday and track north to near Prince
William Sound Tuesday night. 

$$

PKZ041-021830-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
324 PM AKST Sun Jan 1 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt late. Seas 27 ft
subsiding to 17 ft late. Rain showers. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
17 ft subsiding to 14 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas 14 ft 
building to 17 ft. 
.TUE...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.FRI...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-021830-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
324 PM AKST Sun Jan 1 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt late. Seas 27 ft
subsiding to 17 ft late. Rain showers early in the evening. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 17 ft subsiding to 14 ft in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas 14 ft
building to 16 ft.
.TUE...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft. SE swell. Rain.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-021830-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
324 PM AKST Sun Jan 1 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt late. Seas 27 ft
subsiding to 17 ft late. Rain showers. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
17 ft subsiding to 14 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 25 kt late. Seas 16 ft. SW
swell. 
.TUE...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft. S swell. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-021830-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
324 PM AKST Sun Jan 1 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt late. Seas 22 ft
subsiding to 17 ft late. Rain showers. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the morning. Seas 17
ft subsiding to 14 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. S swell. 
.TUE...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-021830-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
324 PM AKST Sun Jan 1 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft subsiding to 17 ft late. Rain
showers.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
17 ft subsiding to 14 ft in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E late. Seas 13 ft. S swell.
.TUE...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S gale to 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
316 PM AKST Sat Dec 31 2022

.SHORT TERM...We are monitoring a low approaching the distant SW
Gulf. Satellite imagery shows a frontal system associated with
the low that will affect our weather over the coming days. A
triple point with an occlusion and a warm frontal feature
extending eastward can be seen along with a cold front extending
SSW into the tropics (long fetch of moisture). The jet stream
will direct this moisture plume toward the central gulf coast as a
ridge builds aloft over the eastern gulf Saturday evening
(essentially in the "dry sector" between the warm front and cold
front). Locations on the lee side of the ridge axis (southern
inner channels) will see the least amount of moisture.

At the surface, the warm front will bring light rain and warm
southerly winds this evening. The far northern inner channels (Chilkat
Valley & Skagway) remain below freezing with a weak northerly
pressure gradient. The warm airmass will overrun the cold air and
result in accumulating snow. Have continued the Advisory for those
areas and expect about 3-5 inches of snow. The south winds have
already pushed just north of Juneau based on the Little Island
observation, so snow is looking unlikely. Some locations out the
road and Eaglecrest could see 1-2 inches before snow levels rise
above 1300ft late tonight and changes to all rain. The southerly
push and rising snow levels reach downtown Haines and Skagway
Sunday morning and will change p-type to rain there, keeping snow
going near the borders slightly longer but at a decreasing rate.

After the warm front passes, there looks to be a lull in precip as
the cold front over the gulf wavers and precip backs off the
panhandle somewhat. But, the upper level ridge axis pushes east
over the Coast Mtns through the day Sunday. This will allow the
cold front to move over the panhandle Sunday afternoon/evening, as
the southerly jet also pushes east, brining with it increasing
winds (gusts of +40mph) and periods of moderate to heavy rain for
much of the region. See the marine section below for more details
on the strong winds associated with the cold front.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday night/...Precipitation from
the front discussed above will begin winding down at the start of
this extended range forecast period with rain occurring in most
locations. The next low will enter the south central Gulf on
Tuesday and track to the northwest towards Kodiak. The associated
gale force front will approach from the south Tuesday afternoon
or evening with the majority of the precipitation being along the
outer coast late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning. Low
level warm air advection associated with this front should be
sufficient enough to keep the outer coast and southern inner
channels in rain. A gradual cooling trend beginning Tuesday will
make daytime snowfall increasingly likely with a transition from
rain to snow occurring earlier in the evenings such that by late
Thursday night very few if any sites will still be seeing rain. 24
hour snow totals for Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday ranging from
trace amounts to 3 inches with the greatest amounts along the
Haines Highway through Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION...Areas of low clouds and fog are hampering aviation
this afternoon, and it is just expected to get worse as we go into
Sunday. A new front will be coming up from the the south that will
first off keep ceilings and visibility low due to a combo of
precipitation and fog (may be down to IFR for long periods in some
cases especially for the northern half). Second, winds will be
becoming a problem. LLWS and maybe turbulence will be wide spread
across the area by late tonight and will persist into Sunday
night. That also means surface winds will be gusty in several
areas which will also persist into Sun night.

&&

.MARINE...Barrier jet winds will increase across the north-central
coast this evening to Storm Force 50kt. As the triple point pushes
into the region, seas will build in excess of 20ft. Strongest, and
gusty, winds are expected with the cold front that tracks across
the gulf late Saturday night into Sunday. A band of 45-50kt winds
remain in the forecast along the front as it moves over the
outside waters during the daytime New Year's day. S-SELY winds
will trend up through the inside waters tonight, then peak during
Sunday afternoon as the cold front moves in. Gale force winds are
likely near the ocean entrances and up Clarence Strait. Seas over
the outside waters will continue to build on Sunday to 30ft with
a strong southerly swell.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 9 PM AKST this evening through Sunday evening
     for AKZ317-323-327.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM AKST
     Sunday for AKZ318-319.
     Strong Wind from late tonight through Sunday afternoon for
     AKZ321-325.
     Strong Wind from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for
     AKZ322-326-328.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST
     Sunday for AKZ325.
     Strong Wind from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     AKZ329.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ052.
     Gale Warning for PKZ041>043-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-021-022-031>036-053.

&&

SHORT TERM...Ferrin
LONG TERM....Fritsch
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...Ferrin

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