Storm Warning 8, NWS Fairbanks, AK

213 
FZAK51 PAFG 261427
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
627 AM AKDT Sun Mar 26 2023

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-270215-
627 AM AKDT Sun Mar 26 2023

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 976 mb low near Wrangel Island will move to 400 NM north of
Wrangel Is as a 976 mb low by 4am Mon then continue moving north.
A weather font extending from this low south along the Dateline 
will move to Deadhorse to the Yukon Delta by 4pm Sun, then move 
east of Demarcation Point on Mon. 

$$

PKZ811-270215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 NM-
627 AM AKDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Snow showers. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.MON...SW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...S winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...S winds 20 kt. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ812-270215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 NM-
627 AM AKDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...S winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...SW winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...SW winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...S winds 15 kt. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ813-270215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 NM-
627 AM AKDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...SW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...SW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...S winds 15 kt. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ814-270215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 NM-
627 AM AKDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...SW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ815-270215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 NM-
627 AM AKDT Sun Mar 26 2023

.TODAY...SE winds 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.MON...W winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ857-270215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 NM-
627 AM AKDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...SW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...S winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...S winds 20 kt. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ858-270215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 NM-
627 AM AKDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...SW winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...SW winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...S winds 20 kt. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ859-270215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 NM-
627 AM AKDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...SW winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...SW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...S winds 15 kt. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ860-270215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 to 80 NM-
627 AM AKDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...SW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED...S winds 15 kt. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ861-270215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 to 75 NM-
627 AM AKDT Sun Mar 26 2023

.TODAY...SE winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. 
.MON...W winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

Mar 23

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
234 PM AKDT Sat Mar 25 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Large storm in the Bering Sea is bringing Blizzard
conditions, heavy snow, and strong winds to the West Coast and
Western Arctic will spread into the Western Interior by this
evening. Winds gusting to 70 mph and higher is several locations
with strongest winds at Cape Lisburne. Snow spreading inland with
increasing chances of freezing rain as temperatures will be on
the rise from Nome south and east to Fairbanks. Blizzard or Winter
Storm Warnings for most areas west and north of Fairbanks.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...The 25/12Z and 25/18Z solutions are coming into line,
but they are still struggling with how much warm air is going to
surge northeast into the state with the long southwest fetch in
advance of the cold front that will eventually move east across
the state early in the week. Major features are similar in
strength, but the lows are few millibars deeper on the local
analysis. Solutions have jumped back and forth with how far north
they are bringing the warm air, and with the latents solutions
they surge it a little further northeast than they were yesterday.
Going to nudge the temperatures up as most solutions are warmer
than what we currently have in the grids. The cold air will come
in pretty quickly behind the low over the West Coast, so that
transition will be pretty sharp. Going with a general blend of the
solutions for precipitation and qpf. Winds will be a blend with a
lean to the NAM which should decrease the winds in a few places
that are a bit high in the grids.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...A 501 dam low 600 nm north of Utqiagvik has
a trough extending south over the Eastern Arctic to Demarcation
Point to Chicken to a 532 dam low 100 nm south of Yakutat. Ridging
has pushed north and moved east over the state with the axis over
Sand Point to Galena to Utqiagvik then northwest. Broad troughing
over the Bering Sea and Chukotka with a 485 dam low over northern
Kamchatka. Sunday morning the ridging will start laying over as
the axis lies from the Shelikof Strait to Nenana to Point Thomson
the north over the Eastern Arctic. Broad troughing to the west
will be sliding east with the 486 dam low moving over Northern
Chukotka with several shortwaves moving through the flow east of
the Dateline over the West Coast with the primary trough extending
south over Attu. Sunday afternoon the ridge axis will lie over
Kodiak City to Chicken to the Eastern Beaufort Sea as it continues
to lay over. The low to the west will move to 100 nm north of
Wrangel Island at 491 dam with several shortwaves moving northeast
over the forecast area. The primary trough will be over the
Dateline. Monday morning the ridging will lie over the Gulf of
Alaska and the southeast mainland and southern Yukon Territory. At
850 hpa...Pool of -20C temperatures is moderating rapidly this
afternoon as it is shunted off to the northeast. The -10C isotherm
has been pushed north to lie from Anchorage to Point Lay, while
the 0C isotherm has been pushed northeast of the Pribilofs. Sunday
afternoon the -10C isotherm will be hanging on over the Fortymile
Country and Brooks Range to Howard Pass then southwest over Nome
to Adak. A dome of warm air around 0C will push northeast over the
Lower Yukon Delta to the Middle Tanana Valley. By Monday morning
the -10C isotherm will lie from Deadhorse to Kuskokwim Bay while
temperatures near 0C will linger over the Middle Tanana Valley and
Upper Yukon Flats.

Surface...High pressure has moved over the Central and Eastern
Interior with a 1039 mb high near Bettles, a 1039 mb high near
Eagle, and a 1039 mb high near Dot Lake. Broad low pressure has
moved into Chukotka with a 972 mb low 200 nm northwest of the Gulf
of Anadyr. A weather front has moved up the West Coast to the
Chukchi Sea and Kotzebue Sound, with another moving into the
Norton Sound Region. Leeside troughing has developed north of the
Brooks Range. A very tight pressure gradient west of Deadhorse in
the Arctic, over the West Coast to Chukotka, and in the Northeast
Bering Sea this afternoon. Sunday morning the high pressure will
be hold on east of Fairbanks and southeast of Arctic Village with
a 1042 mb high near Dawson YT, and a 1044 mb high in the Copper
River Basin. The low over Chukotka will move to 100 nm northwest
of Wrangel Island at 979 mb. The tight pressure gradient will
weaken some as it moves into the Middle Yukon Valley, and across
the Chukchi Sea, while in the Arctic is will tighten across the
coast and in the Brooks Range. Sunday afternoon the gradient will
be relaxing across the area as the low moves to 300 nm north of
Wrangel Island at 973 mb. A bubble high will be holding on in the
Upper Yukon Flats at 1029 mb with a 1037 mb high near Dawson YT,
and a 1037 mb high in the Copper River Basin. Leeside troughing
will develop north of the Alaska Range with a tight gradient
across the range.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Blizzard or near blizzard
conditions across the area with very strong winds gusting around
60 mph along the coast and in the Brooks Range. Snowfall up to 6
inches in the Brooks Range with a couple inches possible along the
coast. Blowing and drifting snow will impact travel across the
area. Ice accumulation of a trace possible from Deadhorse east.
Winds southeast to south along the coast west of Kaktovik 20 to 40
mph and gusty. Strongest winds west of Wainwright gusting to 60
mph. Winds gusting near 100 mph near Cape Lisburne. South winds
through the Brooks Range to 35 mph gusting to 50 mph. Winds will
diminish Sunday evening. Low temperatures tonight in the single
digits, but will be on the rise so low will be around midnight for
most areas. Lows Sunday night in the single digits above to mid
teens above. High temperatures Sunday in the 20s to around 30
above.

West Coast and Western Interior...Blizzard and near blizzard
conditons for much of the West Coast this evening and overnight
with improving conditions Sunday morning as winds diminish. Heavy
snow for much of the area with a chance of mixed precipitation
from Nome south along the coast, and south of Huslia in the
interior. Snow tapering off along the coast Sunday morning as the
front starts to push inland. Additional snowfall amounts up to a
foot can be expected in the Upper Noatak, and Kobuk Valleys, the
Bendeleben Mountains, and the Nulato Hills. Ice accumulation of
one quarter of an inch or less on frozen surfaces. Winds in the
coastal areas south 25 to 60 mph with gusts to 80 mph around Point
Hope. Winds gusting to 60 mph in Kotzebue Sound, and 50 mph from
the Bering Strait south. Inland areas winds southeast 10 to 25 mph
locally gusting to 35 mph, except around McGrath winds east to 10
mph. Winds will diminish tonight and Sunday morning. Low
temperatures tonight in the teems from Kotzebue north and
northeast, with 20s to lower 30s to the south. Sunday night lows
in the teens to 20s but temperatures will be falling through the
day Monday. Sunday high temperatures in the upper 20s to upper
30s.

Central and Eastern Interior...Increasing clouds with increasing
chance of snow and freezing rain Sunday. Heavy snow and freezing
rain expected west and north of Fairbanks, so Winter Storm
Warnings are in effect. Biggest impacts in those areas will be
along the Elliott and Dalton Highways, and the ice road into
Bettles. Blowing and drifting snow in those areas will impact
travel. Snow fall up to 12 inches in the higher terrain, with ice
accumulation of one tenth of an inch or less on frozen surfaces.
Winds increasing from the south for most areas to 10 to 30 mph and
gusting to 40 mph on summits. Winds from Fairbanks southeast will
be southeast 5 to 15 mph. Low temperatures tonight teens below
for Arctic Village, single digits above and below for the
remainder of the area with temperatures warming. Sunday night lows
around zero near the Eastern Brooks Range, and in the Southeast
Interior, with teens to mid 20s for most of the remainder of the
area. Fairbanks lows tonight around 5 above, with lows Sunday
night near 20 above. High temperatures Sunday from the teens above
near Arctic Village to the mid 30s. Fairbanks high will be around
30 above.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...A low will move across the
Bering Sea to St Matthew Island, then move southeast and merge
with a low moving into the Gulf of Alaska. Snow will be confined
to the Lower Yukon Delta and Norton Sound Region. A front moving
southeast across the Arctic will move to the Northwest Coast
Thursday and the Beaufort Sea by Friday morning. Light snow is
expected across the coast and in the plains. Generally quiet
around Fairbanks until Friday when the low in the gulf will spin
some snow in the the Eastern and Central Interior.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ201.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ202.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ211>213.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ214.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ215.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ216.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ217.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ206-218.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ219-221.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ207>210.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-802-850-851.
     Gale Warning for PKZ803.
     Gale Warning for PKZ804-807>809-852.
     Gale Warning for PKZ805-853.
     Storm Warning for PKZ806-816-817-854.
     Storm Warning for PKZ810.
     Storm Warning for PKZ811-857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860.
     Storm Warning for PKZ855.
     Storm Warning for PKZ856.
     Storm Warning for PKZ858.
     Gale Warning for PKZ859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.

&&

SDB MAR 23