Blizzard Warning 20, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
309 PM AKDT Fri Mar 24 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Remnants of a low pressure system over the NW Brooks Range
continues its journey northward, while a weak front dislocated
from this system moves eastward, supplying pockets of snow showers
across the Interior. Gusty winds, snow showers, and blowing snow
from this system is also being observed from Bettles northward,
and will continue through the day before beginning to dissipate
tonight.

A strong low pressure system is rapidly strengthening in the
Bering Sea. As it moves northeastward through Russia, a strong
occluded front will push into the West Coast of Alaska early
tomorrow morning, and is expected to bring heavy snow, gusty
winds, and blowing snow for the majority of areas along the West
Coast, Western Interior, and the Brooks Range. Strong southerly
flow from this front could increase the chances for freezing rain
for areas along a line from Nome to Tanana southward tomorrow
afternoon through Sunday. As a result, multiple Blizzard Warnings
and Winter Storm Warnings have been issued, in effect early
Saturday morning through Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A long wave trough spanning from Russia to Canada acts as the
anchor for the upcoming strong low pressure system to impact
western Alaska tomorrow. This rapidly-deepening system, currently
in the Bering Sea, will move northeastward into the Chukchi Sea by
Sunday morning. Since the majority of its strengthening phase will
occur over the Bering Sea, the system will mature quickly as it
tracks from the Bering Sea to the Chukchi Sea, and its front will
detach and push eastward into the West Coast tomorrow morning.
Ridging ahead of this front will help to slow its progression
eastward into Interior Alaska, leading to hazardous winter weather
and blizzard conditions remaining longer across the West Coast and
Western Interior tomorrow morning through late Sunday night, while
also increasing the chances for freezing rain from Galena
southward due to strong southerly flow increasing temperatures.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Remnants of a weak front is currently spanning across the Interior
will continue to bring light snow showers through the rest of
today, and some areas may see a few tenths of an inch of snow
through tonight. A ridge will begin to build over the Interior
late Saturday night, where temperatures are expected to increase
into the low-30/high-20 degrees Fahrenheit Sunday, and into the
mid to high 30 degrees Fahrenheit Monday. A strong front that
will impact the western portions of Alaska will slowly move
eastward, and begin to impact the Interior on Monday with snow
showers. The strong southerly flow associated with this front will
continue to increase temperatures, and increases the chances for
freezing rain on Monday. The places with the highest chances on
Monday are from Tanana westward, since the front stalls over the
Western Interior. As the progression of the front pushes eastward
Tuesday, chances for freezing rain increase for the Central
Interior Tuesday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Remnants of the aforementioned weak system in the NW Brooks Range
is bringing gusty winds and light snow showers for areas along the
West Coast from the Bering Strait northward and from Galena
northward in the Western Interior. Heavy snowfall against the
southside of the NW Brooks Range will continue through this
evening as the weak system moves northward. A very short-lived
lull period of calmer winds will occur between tonight through
tomorrow morning before a strong frontal boundary will push into
the West Coast. Areas along the West Coast can expect to see gusty
winds, heavy snowfall, blowing snow, and blizzard-like conditions
beginning tomorrow morning through Sunday. Strong southerly flow
will increase temperatures, thus increasing the chances for
freezing rain beginning Sunday for areas along a line from Nome to
Galena southward. Ridging over the Interior will slow the eastward
progression of the front, leading to the hazardous winter weather
conditions to last through Monday for the Western Interior. The
front will slowly weaken and speed up Monday and push eastward out
of the area.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A weak system is currently bringing gusty winds and heavy snowfall
for the NW Brooks Range, and will continue through this evening.
After this system moves northward away from the area, areas along
the western Arctic Coast will experience an increase in
southwesterly winds and a brief period of snowfall that could
cause blowing snow and reduced visibilities tonight. As a strong
front pushes into the West Coast tomorrow, gusty southerly winds
and heavy snowfall is expected for the western Brooks Range
beginning tomorrow afternoon. Hazardous winter weather and
blizzard-like conditions are expected tomorrow through Sunday. As
this front pushes eastward into Alaska, southerly winds will
increase for the central Brooks Range tomorrow afternoon, and
heavy snowfall to begin early Sunday morning. Blizzard-like
conditions through Anaktuvuk Pass and Atigun Pass can be expected
Sunday through Monday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Strong southwesterly winds
could bring increased water levels to the Bering Sea Coast
Saturday through Monday morning.

Extended Forecast for Days 4 through 7...
The aforementioned long wave trough begins to shift eastward after
Tuesday, but doesn't appear too impressive for active weather
after Tuesday. A few systems track southward into the Gulf of
Alaska through the week, and may bring some snow showers for the
southern Interior, but timing and locations are subject to vary
due to inconsistent guidance.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ211.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ212.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ213.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ214.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ215>217.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ217.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ218.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ218.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ206.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ207>210.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-803-805-852.
     Gale Warning for PKZ802-808-853-855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804-809.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806-854.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807.
     Gale Warning for PKZ807-810-811-816-817-850-856-857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851.
     Gale Warning for PKZ858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
&&

KL