Storm Warning 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

957 
FZAK52 PAFG 051259
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
359 AM AKST Sun Mar 5 2023

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-060315-
359 AM AKST Sun Mar 5 2023

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 981 mb low 300 nm of the Rat Islands will move through the
Bering Sea tonight to 240 nm west of St Lawrence Island Sunday
morning. This low will drift north to near Wrangel Island as a 995
mb low Sunday evening.

$$

PKZ200-060315-
Norton Sound-
359 AM AKST Sun Mar 5 2023

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE winds 40 kt. Snow and freezing rain. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Snow and freezing rain. 
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...SW winds 15 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ201-060315-
Etolin Strait to Dall Point-
359 AM AKST Sun Mar 5 2023

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S winds 40 kt. Freezing rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Freezing rain and snow. 
.MON...SE winds 30 kt. Snow with freezing rain. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.TUE...SE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...SW winds 10 kt. 
.THU...N winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-060315-
Dall Point to Wales-
359 AM AKST Sun Mar 5 2023

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S winds 45 kt. Snow and freezing rain. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Snow and freezing rain. 
.MON...SE winds 30 kt. Snow and freezing rain. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Snow and freezing rain. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Snow with freezing rain. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...SW winds 20 kt. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-060315-
Kotzebue Sound-
359 AM AKST Sun Mar 5 2023

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...SW winds 20 kt. 
.THU...S winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-060315-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
359 AM AKST Sun Mar 5 2023

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 50 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Snow with freezing rain. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...SW winds 20 kt. 
.THU...S winds 10 kt.  

$$

Mar 23

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
226 PM AKST Sat Mar 4 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Rounds of storms have arrived over the West Coast with blizzard
conditions from Nome north along the coast to Cape Lisburne. Much
lower impacts inland as strongest winds and heaviest precipitation
confined to mostly coastal areas. Winds arriving along the North
Slope leading to very cold wind chills tonight and early Sunday
before warmer temperatures surge northward. The Interior will see
additional clouds and eventually warmer temperatures, but will
stay mostly dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At the surface, a 983mb low north of the Rat Islands is moving
northward through the Bering Sea. It's running into a surface high
pressure centered over the Interior of Alaska, driving strong moist
south winds through the northern Bering Sea into the Strait and
beyond. This will remain the overall pattern at the surface over the
next several days as rounds of surface lows approach the West Coast.
This is aided by what's occuring aloft which is further
amplification of the 500mb ridge building through the Alaskan
Peninsula. This ridge will amplify from around 540 dam near the
Alaska Range to near 560 dam by Monday evening. Meridional flow will
continue to keep the West Coast and Western Interior in the active
pattern through at least Monday.

Model guidance handling the main features of the trough/ridge
pattern have done well thus far and continue to agree on the broad
features through Monday. Thereafter, we see some differences in the
evolution of two low pressure centers rounding the ridge. A low
dropping east of the ridge through western Canada middle of next
week will coincide with a wave traveling north through the Bering
Sea. The 12z EC agree with Ensembles in holding the ridge firmly
through the Interior middle of next week before retrograding it
towards the Aleutians at the end of next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
The cold arctic airmass over the North Slope will very gradually
be eroded from west to east as warmer air surges northward.
Already seeing temperatures around zero near Cape Lisburne and
temperature rises from Point Lay to Wainright. Should be able to
drop the Wind Chill Advisory for this area a bit early as the
temperatures come up with the winds. Further east we'll see a
similar trend but warmer air will take a little longer to filter
into Utqiagvik, Deadhorse, Prudhoe Bay and eventually to Kaktovik
Sunday. Winter Weather Advisory continues for the eastern Brooks
Range as strong winds have found their way into the passes. Seeing
blowing snow through Anaktuvuk Pass that should continue into at
least Sunday morning. Temperatures will warm Sunday ranging from
the mid 20s above along the Western Arctic Coast to single digits
above and below along Eastern Arctic Coast.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Very active weather is expected to continue as another storm
arrives late tonight into Sunday. Any areas along the coast that
has seen some improvement between waves will likely deteriorate
again as blizzard conditions will continue from Nome, Wales north
to Cape Lisburne. South of Nome we're seeing enough warm air
arriving to drive temperatures up close to freezing in the lower
Yukon Delta and St. Lawrence Island. Temperatures will continue to
creep up as the next wave of precipitation moves in Sunday
morning. Rain and freezing rain is likely from Hooper Bay to near
Kotlik with ice accumulation of nearly a quarter in the Hooper Bay
and Chevak areas. Freezing rain potential surges northward toward
the communities around Norton Sound Sunday and may even make it
to Nome, although confidence in northward ice extent is low.

Central and Eastern Interior...
The Eastern Interior of Alaska should remain mostly clear,
although the cirrus shield from the West Coast storm is pushing
northward. Central Interior could see a few light snow showers or
flurries as the initial push of moisture streams northward this
evening. The high pressure ridge aloft should keep much of the
coastal activity out of the Interior locations, but will allow for
a warming trend as we move into early next week. Will likely see
one more night of cold temperatures, especially in the Eastern
Interior where we're likely to remain cloud-free. Highs on Sunday
will be about 10 to 15 degrees warmer than today's readings with
even warmer temperatures expected for Monday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...A series of storms moving
north over Bering Sea this weekend could cause water to move up
on top of the ice along the West Coast of Alaska into early next
week.

Extended Forecast for Days 4 to 7... The weather pattern begins
to get a little messier in the latter half of the forecast as the
Interior ridge begins to get squeezed out by lows on either side.
Low pressure moving southwestward through western Canada could
bring some light snow along and west of the AlCan border middle of
next week. Along the West Coast we're expecting another deep wave
to pass through the mean meridional flow mid week. This will
likely ramp up winds and precipitation along the West Coast again,
but it could help herald a change in the upper-level pattern that
would be a welcome sight for the West Coast.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ201.
     Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ202>204.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ207-209-211-213.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ208-212.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ210-214.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ215.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ206.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ200.
     Gale Warning for PKZ201.
     Gale Warning for PKZ210.
     Gale Warning for PKZ215.
     Storm Warning for PKZ220.
     Gale Warning for PKZ225.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ230.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ245.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
257 PM AKST Sat Mar 4 2023

AKZ207-209-211>214-060000-
Chukchi Sea Coast-Baldwin Peninsula and Selawik Valley-
Southern Seward Peninsula Coast-
Eastern Norton Sound and Nulato Hills-
St Lawrence Island and Bering Strait Coast-Yukon Delta-
Including Point Hope, Shishmaref, Kivalina, Espenberg, Kotzebue,
Selawik, Noorvik, Nome, White Mountain, Golovin, Unalakleet,
Stebbins, St Michael, Elim, Koyuk, Shaktoolik, Gambell, Savoonga,
Brevig Mission, Teller, Wales, Diomede, Mountain Village,
Emmonak, Alakanuk, Kotlik, Pilot Station, St Marys, Scammon Bay,
Hooper Bay, Marshall, Nunam Iqua, and Pitkas Point
257 PM AKST Sat Mar 4 2023

...Elevated Water Along the Coast through Monday...

Strong south winds will result in elevated water levels from the
Yukon Delta along the West Coast through Point Hope through
Monday morning. This will cause water to rise up through cracks in
the sea ice and push water on top of the ice in some areas. Some
coastal trails on the ice or near the shore could become inundated
with water. Ice shoves may be possible for vulnerable coasts
along south-facing coastlines.

Residents living along the coast are encouraged to monitor
current conditions before venturing out on the sea ice.