Gale Warning 37, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
305 PM AKST Fri Mar 3 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A mix of clouds and clearing through the Interior this afternoon.
Clear and cold conditions expected through much of northern
Alaska tonight as Arctic air filters in from the North Slope.
Along the West Coast, focus will be on several waves of storms
beginning tonight. The first storm will spread snow and strong
winds from the Yukon Delta north through the Bering Strait
Saturday. Another strong storm will arrive from the south Saturday
into Sunday, further deteriorating conditions along the coast
with wind, snow and a mix of precipitation through at least the
Yukon Delta. The North Slope and Interior should remain dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At the surface a 1025mb high is centered over the Beaufort Sea. This
will extend southward over the Interior into the weekend. At the
same time a 987mb low is moving through the central Bering Sea this
evening, approaching St. Lawrence Island Saturday. Between the
Interior surface high and low pressure over the Bering Sea the
surface pressure gradient will tighten through the north Bering Sea.
This will increase moist southerly flow through the Aleutians and
along the West Coast.

Aloft, broad high pressure over the Interior will get a boost from
the ridge building through the Alaskan Peninsula and into the
Interior this weekend. The highly amplified trough-ridge pattern
from the Bering Sea through the Interior will only deepen further
through the weekend. The deep-column southerly moisture stream will
further feed the active weather along the West Coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A cold arctic airmass situated over the North Slope will keep
conditions dry and relatively calm through the night. Winds will
begin to increase from fro west to east Saturday morning through
the day. Strong downsloping southerly flow across the western
Brooks Range will warm temperatures along the Arctic Coast near
Point Lay. As the south winds increase and the temperatures creep
up from west to east along the North Slope, there will likely be
dangerously cold wind chills for a window of time before
temperatures really increase into Sunday. Wind Chill Advisories or
Warnings may be necessary early Saturday through early Sunday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Very active weather will begin tonight along the West Coast of
Alaska as a storm arrives out of the Bering Sea. This storm will
bring heavy snow, wind and warming temperatures beginning in the
Yukon Delta and St. Lawrence Island tonight spreading northward
overnight into Saturday morning. Strong southerly winds will favor
south-facing coastlines to receive the bulk of the heavy
precipitation and even some coastal icing impacts. Locations in
and around Nome, Wales, Kivalina, and Point Hope will see the
worst of the impacts with blizzard conditions, drifting snow and
potential coastal sea ice shoves early Saturday through Sunday
night. Blizzard Warnings have been expanded to include these
locations. Further south along the lower Yukon Delta temperatures
will warm enough to lead to a switchover from snow to rain which
would lead to icing and compound impacts in locations in and
around Hooper Bay and Chevak. There is potential that the
rain/snow line could advance north to Unalakleet and even into the
southern Seward Peninsula. Confidence in this icing potential is
low.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Lingering stratus and light flurries will continue across the
Eastern Interior north of the Alaska Range. Elsewhere, seeing some
clearing through the Central Interior where temperatures could
really drop tonight and again on Saturday night. Despite the
storminess expected along the West Coast, the Interior should
largely remain dry with a warming trend as southerly flow filters
in warmer temperatures toward the latter part of the weekend. By
Monday, high temperatures will range from the mid 30s in around
the Alaska Range to mid 20s in the Tanana Valley and single digits
above through the Yukon Flats.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...A series of storms moving
north over Bering Sea this weekend could cause water to move up
on top of the ice along the West Coast of Alaska this weekend and
early next week.

Extended Forecast for Days 4 to 7... Further amplification of the
upper level pattern will keep the West Coast warmer than average.
Rounds of moisture streaming northward through the mean flow will
fuel precipitation on and off until the ridge can become dislodged
later next week. Confidence on when that occurs is quite low with
model guidance diverging significantly.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ211-213.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ212.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ214.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ207-209.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ210.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200.
     Gale Warning for PKZ201.
     Gale Warning for PKZ210.
     Gale Warning for PKZ215-225.
     Gale Warning for PKZ220.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ230.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235.
&&

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