Storm Warning 12, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
353 AM AKDT Sun Oct 22 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm will move across the Bering Sea Sunday into
Monday, bringing another round of strong and gusty winds and
heavy snow, primarily from the Seward Peninsula north. Snow and
blowing snow will persist into Monday. Winter storm warnings
have been issued for Northwest Alaska. Strong winds could lead to
elevated surf and beach erosion along the Western and Arctic
coasts. Blizzard conditions have subsided over the eastern north
slope. Light snow is expected across the Interior on Sunday with
accumulations around 1 to 3 inches.

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
At 500 mb, troughing persists over the eastern North slope and
high pressure over the mainland causing a strong pressure gradient
along the eastern North slope. Ridging is building north and east
from the North Pacific and across the Bering Sea. By Sunday
afternoon, the ridge axis will align along the west coast. A weak
shortwave will dive northwest over the Interior bringing light
snow to the western Interior and Central Interior on Sunday. The
ridge axis will shift to the east over the Mainland Monday into
Tuesday, while troughing persists over the Bering. 850 MB
temperatures colder than -10C will remain over Northern AK through
Sat, then will see 850 mb temperatures warm to near 0C along the
West Coast late Sunday. This will bring the chance of mixed rain
and snow to the West Coast Sun night and Mon.

Interior...A shortwave will over the Interior from the northwest
and light snow expected to develop on Sunday afternoon across
the western and central Interior. Accumulations will be around
1 to 3 inches. Snow will taper off Sunday night and high pressure
will build in and dry things out through mid week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Blizzard conditions have subsided over the north slope but winds
remain gusty through Sunday as well as elevated surf offshore.
Another system will approach the western north slope Sunday
into Monday. Strong southerly winds expected near Point hope and
Cape Lisburne with gusts 60 to 80 mph. Snow and blowing snow and
low visibility with accumulations around 1 to 3 inches from
Wainwright west.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A strong storm will move across the Bering Sea Sunday into
Monday, bringing another round of strong and gusty winds and
precipitation, primarily from the Seward Peninsula north.
Snow and blowing snow possible north of the Seward Peninsula
Sunday into Monday. Strong winds could lead to elevated surf and
beach erosion along the Western and Arctic coasts. High surf
advisories are out for coast line. Increased south to
southwesterly winds will develop along the coast, with gales
likely through the Bering Strait to Point Hope. Warmer air will
move north with the southerly flow, bringing increasing
temperatures Sunday and Monday. Heavy snow expected inland over
northwest Alaska with accumulations around 6 to 10 inches. Winter
storm warning have been issued north and east of Kotzebue. Winter
weather advisory is out for Kotzebue.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
High surf with potential for minor coastal flooding Sun night
through Mon night along South and West facing Coastlines from
Golovin to Point Hope. High surf possible Cape Lisburne to
Utqiagvik Mon night and Tue.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ801-814>816-819.
     High Surf Advisory for AKZ801-815-820>822-827.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ817.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-808>810-855.
     Gale Warning for PKZ807-816-817-854-857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ811-856.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812-860-861.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ813.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ814.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ814.
     Gale Warning for PKZ815-861.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ815.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850-853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ859.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ859.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ860.
&&