Small Craft Advisory 252, NWS Fairbanks, AK

292 
FZAK51 PAFG 240030
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
430 PM AKDT Mon Oct 23 2023

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-241415-
430 PM AKDT Mon Oct 23 2023

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A strong weather front along the Dateline will move east to Barter
Island to Norton Sound by 4am Tue, to Inuvik to Norton SOunds by
4pm Tue, then from the Seward Pen west by 4am Wed. 

$$

PKZ811-241415-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 NM-
430 PM AKDT Mon Oct 23 2023

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S winds 45 kt becoming SW 35 kt. Seas 12 ft subsiding
to 9 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog and freezing fog.
Freezing spray. 
.WED...S winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.THU...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ812-241415-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 NM-
430 PM AKDT Mon Oct 23 2023

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S winds 40 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog, rain.
.TUE...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog and freezing fog.
Freezing spray. 
.WED...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.THU...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog and freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ813-241415-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 NM-
430 PM AKDT Mon Oct 23 2023

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow and rain. 
.TUE...W winds 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog and fog.
Freezing spray. 
.WED...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.THU...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ814-241415-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 NM-
430 PM AKDT Mon Oct 23 2023

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 35 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Freezing
spray. 
.TUE...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow and rain. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog and fog.
Freezing spray. 
.WED...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.THU...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog and blowing snow.
Vsby 1 NM or less. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.FRI...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ815-241415-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 NM-
430 PM AKDT Mon Oct 23 2023

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 10 kt increasing to 20 kt. Seas building to
4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE...W winds 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow and rain. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED...W winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.THU...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.FRI...W winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ857-241415-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 NM-
430 PM AKDT Mon Oct 23 2023

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S winds 45 kt becoming SW 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Fog. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.TUE...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.WED...S winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.THU...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ858-241415-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 NM-
430 PM AKDT Mon Oct 23 2023

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S winds 45 kt becoming SW 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Fog,
rain.
.TUE...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.WED...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ859-241415-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 NM-
430 PM AKDT Mon Oct 23 2023

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 35 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 13 ft. Snow and
rain. 
.TUE...W winds 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. 
.WED...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.THU...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ860-241415-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 to 80 NM-
430 PM AKDT Mon Oct 23 2023

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog, snow. Freezing spray. 
.TUE...SW winds 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog.
.WED...W winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.THU...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.FRI...W winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ861-241415-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 to 75 NM-
430 PM AKDT Mon Oct 23 2023

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE...W winds 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog, snow.
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Fog.
.WED...W winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.THU...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.FRI...W winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Oct 23

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
435 PM AKDT Sun Oct 22 2023

SYNOPSIS...
An Arctic weather front is causing snow in a broad band from
Delta Junction to NW Alaska that will continue tonight then taper
off early Mon. Expect 2-4 inches of snow over NW AK tonight with
1-2 inches of snow in the Interior between Bettles-Delta Junction-
Nicolai-Huslia through Mon AM.

A warm front over NW Alaska is causing mixed rain and snow along
coastal sections of the West Coast northwest of Nome to Kivalina
to Cape Lisburne tonight, with snow east of the front from Norton
Sound north.

A strong weather front over the Western Bering Sea will move east
to the West Coast of Alaska on Mon, and to Barter Island to
Norton Sound by Tue. This front will bring heavy snow and
blowing snow to inland areas of NW AK on Mon and Mon night, with
snow mixing with rain or changing to rain along coastal sections
on Mon. This will bring snow and blowing snow to the Arctic Coast
from Wainwright to Utqiagvik and to the Central and Western
Brooks Range from Mon into Tue.

This front will cause south winds gusting to 40 mph will develop
along the West Coast tonight and continue into Monday night.
Channeled areas such as the Bering Strait, St Lawrence Island and
Point Hope will see gust to 70 mph. These strong winds will cause
sea levels to rise several feet and push large waves onshore from
Golovin north to Point Lay tonight through Mon night, especially
along south facing shores.

This front will cause south winds gusting to 40 mph on Monday
from Wainwright Utqiagvik and will cause sea levels to rise
several feet by Monday night. When the winds turn westerly late
Monday night and Tuesday, waves will push onshore, especially
along west facing shores. Utqiagvik will be especially vulnerable
to high surf Late Monday night and Tuesday, and significant beach
erosion is expected at Utqiagvik. The winds will decrease Tuesday
night, and surf at Utqiagvik should decrease late Tuesday night.

The second half of the week should be dry with temperatures near
normal with strong inversions over the Eastern Interior, while the
West Coast/Western Interior and North Slope remain wet, windy and
much warmer than normal.

Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a strong ridge over the Eastern
Bering Sea and West Coast and a trough over Canada. The ridge
will build strongly over all of Alaska Mon into Wed, and then
persisting into next weekend. This will cause the West Coast and
North Slope to be warmer and wetter than normal and windy next
week, while the Interior will be drier and colder than normal next
week with very strong nocturnal inversions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft at 12Z. Models show similar
solutions aloft through 4am Wed, Then start to see larger
differences in short wave strength and timing, mainly over the
Bering Sea and North Slope. All models indicate the a strong long
wave ridge aloft building over AK Mon into Wed, then drifting
slowly east in the second half of the week as a long wave trough
over the Bering moves slowly east to along the West Coast by next
weekend. This looks like it should cause the second half of the
week to be dry with temperatures near normal with strong
inversions over the Eastern Interior, while the West Coast/Western
Interior and North Slope remain wet, windy and much warmer than
normal.

850 mb temperatures are colder than -10C over much of the
Interior and North Slope but will warm rapidly as warmer air to
the west moves northeast. The 0C and warmer air west of the YK
Delta and Bering Strait to Point Hope will move to Bethel the Cape
Lisburne tonight, to McGrath to Point Hope to Point Lay on Mon,
then to Denali to the Bering Strait on Tue and Wed. Any
precipitation that falls should be mainly snow northeast of the
850 mb 0C line except that there is already mixed rain and snow
along most of the West Coast, mixed along the 0C line and mainly
rain SW of the 0C line.

with precipitation, models show similar solutions for areal
coverage through Tue but differ some on amounts, then the NAM
become more of an outlier on Tue night and Wed. Will use a blend
of models for precip through Tue, then a blend of the GFS and
ECMWF for Tue night and Wed. Highlights for precip are:
2-4 inches of snow over NW AK tonight. 1-2 inches of snow between
Bettles-Delta-Nicolai-Huslia through Mon AM. Mixed rain and snow
along coastal sections of the West Coast northwest of Nome to
Kivalina to Cape Lisburne tonight. Rain and snow along the West
Coast north of the YK Delta to Point Lay Mon and Mon night, with
snow Point Lay to Utqiagvik and with all snow above 1000 ft south
of Point Lay. Expect snow to taper off over NW AK Tue PM and to
spread east across the North Slope on Tue. From Mon through Tue
expect another 8 inches of snow from Ambler to Red Dog Mine, and
2-4 inches snow along the coast from Nome to Point Hope since much
of the snow will fall mixed with rain along the coast from Mon
into Tue.

At the surface at 15Z, models verify well on most features.
Models show similar solutions at the surface through Tue, with
slight differences Tue night and Wed. Will use a blend of models
for surface winds. Highlights are:
South winds 25-35 kt over the Bering Sea spreading to the West
Coast of Alaska tonight, the continuing and spreading north to
Utqiagvik on Mon, then turning westerly Mon night and Tue.
Tonight and Mon will see gusts 60 mph at St Lawrence Is, and 70
mph in the Bering Strait and at Point Hope with 80 mph at Cape
Lisburne. The remainder of the West Coast and the area near Red
Dog Mine will have gusts 40 mph from late tonight until late Mon
night. Gusts 40 mph will spread north to Utqiagvik and over the
Western Brooks Range on Mon and continue into Mon night, before
turning wester 15-25 kt on Tue.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
High surf south and west facing coastlines from Golovin north To
Cape Lisburne tonight through early Tue. High surf Point Lay to
Utqiagvik Mon night through Tue night.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ801-815.
     High Surf Advisory for AKZ801-815-820>822-827.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ802.
     High Surf Advisory for AKZ802-803.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ814-816-819.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ817.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ820-821-827.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ803.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801>803.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-852-859.
     Storm Warning for PKZ806-854.
     Storm Warning for PKZ807-856.
     Gale Warning for PKZ808.
     Gale Warning for PKZ809-855.
     Gale Warning for PKZ810-858.
     Storm Warning for PKZ811.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812-861.
     Gale Warning for PKZ812.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ813.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ814.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ815.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ815-859.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816-817.
     Gale Warning for PKZ850.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851.
     Gale Warning for PKZ853.
     Storm Warning for PKZ857.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ860.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

JB