Gale Warning 5, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
121 PM AKST Tue Jan 10 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong arctic high along the Arctic Coast is driving increasing
easterly winds with areas of blowing and drifting snow. Snow is
moving north across the Yukon Delta and will continue to shift
north across the West Coast today and tonight. A combination of
snow and falling snow will reduce visibility over the Bering
Coast, with widespread blowing and drifting snow over the Arctic
Coast, lasting into the latter half of the week. Over the
Interior, local blowing and drifting snow over the summits is
expected, with a chance of snow shifting east across the Interior
on Wednesday night and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a 513 dam upper low over the Bering Strait with a 534
ridge of high pressure over the Yukon. There is a mobile shortwave
trough moving northwest across the Bristol Bay region. That
shortwave trough is supporting a developing surface inverted
trough axis stretching from Bristol Bay to the Y-K Delta coast.
Light snowfall is moving north along this axis and will continue
to shift northward. A moderate strength 1037 mb high is situated
over the high arctic and this is supporting a strong easterly
pressure gradient, with winds along the Arctic Coast already
ramping up quickly. The Tanana Valley Jet is also moderately
strong as winds gust to near 50 mph.

Model Discussion...
The models are in pretty good agreement with the general pattern
through Friday, but they are not in good agreement with the
details of the pattern. The largest discrepancies revolve around
the strength of the winds along the coast, which impacts the
forecast for winds and blowing and drifting snow. The Canadian
Regional supports the strongest winds, thus that model was
preferred.

Central and Eastern Interior...
The Tanana Valley Jet is rolling along as winds gust into the 40
mph range. Interior summit winds are also increasing, and both
will peak today before gradually diminishing Wednesday. Webcams
don't support much blowing and drifting snow, and considering the
paltry snowfall as of late, we only anticipate localized blowing
and drifting snow over the summits and in wind prone areas. A pair
of upper level trough systems will pass over the Interior
Wednesday and again Thursday, with chances for snow mainly north
of the Tanana Valley. However, given the paltry moisture
available, little if any snowfall accumulation is anticipated with
the best chance for accumulating snow closer to the Brooks Range.

West Coast and Western Interior...
An inverted surface trough is supporting a band of snowfall across
the Yukon Delta and Norton Sound which will shift northward
tonight and tomorrow. A combination of snow and blowing snow along
the coast will continue through tonight with current winter
weather advisories remaining in effect. The inverted trough will
transition into a surface low and shift over the Bering Strait,
with north winds gradually becoming more easterly. Significant
blowing and drifting snow should wane tomorrow, but light snowfall
accumulations will continue through Thursday before the low exits
to the northeast.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Widespread blowing and drifting snow has commenced as expected, as
the pressure gradient squeeze continues to increase. East winds
will ramp up even more through tonight and persist through
Thursday, with gusts into the 45-55 mph range, strongest over the
Western Arctic and Eastern Arctic coast. Given the long easterly
fetch, expect the worst conditions to be over the Western Arctic
where a blizzard warning for whiteout conditions will be issued
with this forecast package. Elsewhere, less snow on the ground
will likely mean slightly less blowing and drifting snowfall, but
with winds blowing gale force, there will still be poor
conditions, thus winter weather advisories will remain in effect.
The gradient gradually weakens Thursday night with chances for
light accumulating snow fall also increasing during this time as
the upper level system moves overhead.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
There is no notable change for the extended period forecast as the
state remains well to the north of the main storm track. With
arctic troughing to the north and storms to the south, this will
maintain a general northeast driven pressure gradient, which means
some blowing and drifting snow over the Arctic and mostly drier
northeast flow over the Interior. Temps look to remain seasonable
with no significant storms on the horizon as it will likely remain
on the drier side, as well.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ201.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ202.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ213.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ214.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203-204.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ207.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ201.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220.
     Gale Warning for PKZ225.
     Gale Warning for PKZ230-240.
     Gale Warning for PKZ235.
     Gale Warning for PKZ245.

&&

Ahsenmacher

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