Gale Warning 1, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
431 AM AKST Sun Jan 1 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A shift in the weather pattern across northern Alaska is underway.
Low pressure moving into the Gulf of Alaska is pushing warmer air
aloft northward into the Interior. Winds will increase in most
areas as the pressure gradient tightens through the day. The gusty
winds will result in areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility
over summits across the Interior, through Brooks Range passes,
and across the eastern Arctic Coast. Strong north winds from the
Chukchi Sea and into the Bering Sea will persist with visibility
reduced in blowing snow through the Bering Strait. Warmer air,
clouds, and the winds will scour out the cold air from the valleys
and bring an end the strong temperature inversions that have been
occuring in the Interior the past few days.

.DISCUSSION...
Low pressure aloft centered over the Alaska Peninsula will remain
nearly stationary as it weakens through Tuesday. A ridge of high
pressure extending north through British Columbia and the Yukon
Territory will persist through Tuesday. This pattern will bring
southeast flow aloft to much of mainland Alaska spinning clouds,
warm air, and a few bouts of snowfall inland. The west coast of
Alaska will be more influenced by cold high pressure over far east
Russia with cool northerly flow persisting into next week.

Forecast models are in generally good agreement with the main
synoptic features for the next several days. There are some
differences with the placement, extent, and amount of light snow
expected to develop over the Interior and Brooks Range as a
dissipating weather front rotates north and west today. The
NAM/ECMWF solutions have been consistent the past couple days
showing some snowfall developing over the western Interior and
upslope along the Brooks Range, while the GFS is much drier. Some
of the snow spills over to the eastern Arctic coast tonight as
well. We have leaned toward the higher chances of snow advertised
by the NAM/ECMWF. The pressure gradient is tightening this
morning with increasing winds today across the board except in
the most sheltered valleys.

Central and Eastern Interior...The calm valleys are still sitting
in the teens to 20's below zero this morning while the hills and
windy areas such as Delta Junction are in the teens and 20's
above. Clouds and increasing winds today will erode much of the
cold air out of the valleys with temperatures climbing well above
zero in most locations, except the Yukon Flats and Upper Tanana
Valley. Temperatures on Monday will likely be even slightly
warmer. Winds will increase through the day peaking late this
afternoon and evening. Winds gusting 30 to 40 mph over summits and
channeled areas, with gusts to 50 mph along the Dalton Highway
north of the Yukon River and reduced visibility in blowing snow.
Gusts to 50 mph are also expected in Delta Junction and possibly
through the Alaska Range passes. Winds will slack off by Monday
morning. As for snow, an inch or less is likely from the uplands
north of Fairbanks to the Brooks Range. Also, 1 to 2 inches of
snow may spill over Isabel Pass along the Richardson Hwy in the AK
Range.

West Coast and Western Interior...A broad swath of north winds
gusting 30 to 45 mph from Pt Hope south through the Bering Strait
and extending to the Yukon Delta will gradually start to diminish
on Monday. Further east, winds are increasing with gusts from 20
to 30 mph peaking this afternoon. Light snow with 1 inch or less
accumulation from the Nulato Hills northeast to the upper Kobuk
Valley from late this afternoon to early Monday morning.
Otherwise, warming temperatures today and Monday into the teens in
most locations except nearly steady readings in the single digits
over the northern Seward Peninsula to St Lawrence Island. Low
visibility in blowing snow persisting through the Bering Strait.

North Slope and Brooks Range...A gradual warming over next two
days. Daytime temperatures climbing into the single digits above
zero in most locations except into the teens and lower 20's in the
Brooks Range. Southerly winds increasing through the Brooks Range
passes with gusts 30 to 45 mph and some blowing snow including
the along the Dalton Hwy. Easterly winds will pick up considerably
along the eastern Arctic Coast with gusts peaking at 60 mph at
Barter Island Monday morning. The winds combined with some light
snow Sunday night into Monday will bring Blizzard conditions to
Barter Island and also low visibility in blowing snow as far west
as Nuiqsut. Winds will diminish in all areas Monday night.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Relatively quiet with no significant cold air or snowfall as the
storm pattern remains well to the south. A gradual cooling after
Tuesday into next weekend, but nothing dramatic, just near normal
temperatures.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ213.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ219-221.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ223.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ223.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ204.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-201.
     Gale Warning for PKZ210.
     Gale Warning for PKZ220.
     Gale Warning for PKZ225.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ230.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235.
     Gale Warning for PKZ240.
     Gale Warning for PKZ245.
&&

EWP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1231 AM AKST Sun Jan 1 2023

AKZ218>226-020000-
Southeastern Brooks Range-Upper Koyukuk Valley-
Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-Central Interior-
Middle Tanana Valley-Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-Denali-
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Arctic Village, Wiseman, Coldfoot, Chandalar DOT Camp,
Iniakuk Lake, Allakaket, Hughes, Bettles, Caribou Mountain,
Gobblers Knob, Fort Yukon, Venetie, Central, Circle,
Stevens Village, Beaver, Chalkyitsik, Birch Creek,
Circle Hot Springs, Eagle Summit, Twelvemile Summit, Nenana,
Anderson, Tanana, Minto, Manley Hot Springs, Rampart,
Lake Minchumina, Livengood, Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright,
Eielson AFB, Ester, North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox,
Chatanika, Chena Hot Springs, Sourdough Camp, Salcha,
Delta Junction, Fort Greely, Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek,
Dot Lake, Healy Lake, Tok, Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway,
Alcan, Chicken, Boundary, Healy, Denali National Park, Cantwell,
Carlo Creek, Kantishna, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome,
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
1231 AM AKST Sun Jan 1 2023

...Gusty winds and warmer weather coming to the Central and
Eastern Interior today...

Strong east winds and blowing snow will develop over Steese,
Elliott and Dalton Highway Summits early this morning and
continue into tonight. East winds will increase to 30 to 40 mph
with gusts to 50 mph over the Dalton Highway, causing drifting
snow over summits. Temperatures in these areas will rise well
above zero thus wind chills will not be severe.

Fairbanks will see temperatures rising late tonight through the
day on Sunday, along with east winds of 15 to 20 mph.

Areas near the Alaska Range, such as Delta Junction and Healy,
will see moderate Chinook winds developing tonight and continuing
into Sunday. South to east winds will gust to 50 mph along the
Alaska Range Sunday, with temperatures rising into the 20s and
30s.

Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for the Dalton and
Elliott Highway summits and a Wind Advisory is in effect for the
Delta Junction area. Please see those statements for additional
details.