Winter Storm Warning 3, NWS Anchorage, AK

864 
WWAK42 PAFC 141421
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
521 AM AKST Tue Feb 14 2023

AKZ195-150300-
/O.NEW.PAFC.BZ.W.0005.230215T1800Z-230216T0300Z/
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0004.000000T0000Z-230214T1800Z/
Pribilof Islands-
Including the city of Saint Paul
521 AM AKST Tue Feb 14 2023

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING...
...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM AKST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...For the first Blizzard Warning, blizzard conditions
  occurring. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch.
  Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. Reduced visibilities to one
  quarter mile or less. For the second Blizzard Warning, blizzard
  conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches.
  Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. Reduced visibilities to one 
  quarter mile or less.

* WHERE...Pribilof Islands.

* WHEN...For the first Blizzard Warning, until 9 AM AKST this 
  morning. For the second Blizzard Warning, from 9 AM to 6 PM 
  AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on very difficult travel conditions, with
  whiteout conditions at times. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...For the first Blizzard Warning: Snowfall
  and gusty northeasterly winds will diminish early this morning
  with the departure of a front. For the second Blizzard Warning: A
  new front will bring another round of strong winds and snowfall
  to the Pribilof Islands on Wednesday. Gusty southeasterly winds
  are expected to peak Wednesday afternoon before diminishing in 
  the evening. Snowfall will likely be heaviest Wednesday morning 
  through Wednesday afternoon before precipitation transitions to 
  a rain/snow mix in the evening. Strong winds combined with new 
  and recent snowfall are expected to promote blizzard conditions 
  Wednesday morning into Wednesday evening.
 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you.If you get stranded, stay
with your vehicle. 

&&

$$

AKZ191-150300-
/O.CON.PAFC.WS.W.0003.230214T2000Z-230215T0600Z/
Western Aleutians-
Including the city of Shemya and Amchitka
521 AM AKST Tue Feb 14 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
TO 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 3 to 7 inches. Visibility reduced to one half 
  mile or less at times. Winds gusting as high as 80 mph.

* WHERE...Western Aleutians.

* WHEN...From 11 AM to 9 PM AKST today.

* IMPACTS...Plan on difficult travel conditions, with whiteout
  conditions at times. Areas of blowing snow could significantly 
  reduce visibility. Very strong winds could damage property and 
  cause power outages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A strong front will approach from the south
  late this morning with temperatures initially near or below
  freezing, allowing precipitation along the front to fall as
  snow. Winds will drop off quickly as the front moves through
  this evening and as snow begins to mix with rain, leading to 
  rapidly improving conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case
of an emergency. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

792 
WWAK42 PAFC 141553
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
653 AM AKST Tue Feb 14 2023

AKZ195-150500-
/O.CAN.PAFC.BZ.W.0004.000000T0000Z-230214T1800Z/
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0005.230215T1800Z-230216T0300Z/
Pribilof Islands-
Including the city of Saint Paul
653 AM AKST Tue Feb 14 2023

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. Reduced 
  visibilities to one quarter mile or less.

* WHERE...Pribilof Islands.

* WHEN...From 9 AM to 6 PM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on very difficult travel conditions, with 
  whiteout conditions at times.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The first round of blizzard conditions is
  coming to an end as winds diminish through the day. 

  A new front will bring another round of strong winds and 
  snowfall to the Pribilof Islands on Wednesday. Gusty 
  southeasterly winds are expected to peak Wednesday afternoon 
  before diminishing in the evening. Snowfall will likely be 
  heaviest Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon before 
  precipitation transitions to a rain/snow mix in the evening. 
 
 Strong winds combined with new and recent snowfall are expected 
 to promote blizzard conditions Wednesday morning into Wednesday 
 evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you.If you get stranded, stay
with your vehicle. 

&&

$$

AKZ191-150500-
/O.CON.PAFC.WS.W.0003.230214T2000Z-230215T0600Z/
Western Aleutians-
Including the city of Shemya and Amchitka
653 AM AKST Tue Feb 14 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
TO 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 3 to 7 inches. Visibility reduced to one half 
  mile or less at times. Winds gusting as high as 80 mph.

* WHERE...Western Aleutians.

* WHEN...From 11 AM to 9 PM AKST today.

* IMPACTS...Plan on difficult travel conditions, with whiteout 
  conditions at times. Areas of blowing snow could significantly 
  reduce visibility. Very strong winds could damage property and 
  cause power outages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A strong front will approach from the 
  south late this morning with temperatures initially near or 
  below freezing, allowing precipitation along the front to fall 
  as snow. Winds will drop off quickly as the front moves 
  through this evening and as snow begins to mix with rain, 
  leading to rapidly improving conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case
of an emergency.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

216 
WWAK42 PAFC 150121
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
421 PM AKST Tue Feb 14 2023

AKZ195-151500-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0005.230215T1800Z-230216T0300Z/
Pribilof Islands-
Including the city of Saint Paul
421 PM AKST Tue Feb 14 2023

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. Reduced 
  visibilities to one quarter mile or less.

* WHERE...Pribilof Islands.

* WHEN...From 9 AM to 6 PM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on very difficult travel conditions, with 
  whiteout conditions at times.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A new front will bring another round of
  strong winds and snowfall to the Pribilof Islands on Wednesday.
  Gusty southeasterly winds are expected to peak Wednesday
  afternoon before diminishing in the evening. Snowfall will
  likely be heaviest Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon
  before precipitation transitions to a rain/snow mix in the
  evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you.If you get stranded, stay
with your vehicle.

&&

$$

AKZ191-150600-
/O.CON.PAFC.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-230215T0600Z/
Western Aleutians-
Including the city of Shemya and Amchitka
421 PM AKST Tue Feb 14 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow occurring. Total snow 
  accumulations of 3 to 7 inches. Visibility reduced to one half 
  mile or less at times. Winds gusting as high as 80 mph.

* WHERE...Western Aleutians.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on difficult travel conditions, with whiteout 
  conditions at times. Areas of blowing snow could significantly 
  reduce visibility. Very strong winds could damage property and 
  cause power outages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Widespread snow, blowing snow and high
  winds will continue this afternoon. Winds will drop off quickly
  as the front moves through later this evening and as snow 
  begins to mix with rain, leading to rapidly improving 
  conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case
of an emergency.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

631 
WWAK42 PAFC 150600
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
900 PM AKST Tue Feb 14 2023

AKZ191-150700-
/O.EXP.PAFC.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-230215T0600Z/
Western Aleutians-
Including the city of Shemya and Amchitka
900 PM AKST Tue Feb 14 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING HAS EXPIRED...


$$

AKZ195-151500-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0005.230215T1800Z-230216T0300Z/
Pribilof Islands-
Including the city of Saint Paul
900 PM AKST Tue Feb 14 2023

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. Reduced 
  visibilities to one quarter mile or less.

* WHERE...Pribilof Islands.

* WHEN...From 9 AM to 6 PM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on very difficult travel conditions, with 
  whiteout conditions at times.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A new front will bring another round of 
  strong winds and snowfall to the Pribilof Islands on 
  Wednesday. Gusty southeasterly winds are expected to peak 
  Wednesday afternoon before diminishing in the evening. 
  Snowfall will likely be heaviest Wednesday morning through 
  Wednesday afternoon before precipitation transitions to a 
  rain/snow mix in the evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you.If you get stranded, stay
with your vehicle.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
615 AM AKST Mon Feb 13 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper-level trough continues to promote unsettled conditions
across Alaska with multiple shortwaves rotating around Southern
Alaska. One such wave has supported a surface low centered about
Prince William Sound. A tight pressure gradient at the surface has
also pushed gusty winds along the Cook Inlet into places such as
Homer and Kodiak Island. This system has remained relatively
stationary due to the lack of movement from the supporting upper-
levels, driving the prolonged snowfall around Southcentral and
Anchorage area. This system however will weaken this morning,
granting a brief pause in the snowfall Monday for Southcentral.

Currently in Southwest Alaska, a weak high pressure system has
built over the region, maintaining a relative benign pattern with
colder temperatures and occasional showers. In the Bering, a
North Pacific low is located just south of the Central/Western
Aleutians. This system has a tight pressure gradient and is
pushing storm-force winds with hurricane-force gusts through parts
of the Western/Central Aleutians. The leading front along the
northern side of the front will sweep eastward along the Chain,
reaching the Pribilofs by this afternoon and Southwest Alaska by
early Tuesday morning. As the front reaches the Pribilofs, winds
and snow are expected to create blizzard conditions until Tuesday
morning.

By Tuesday afternoon, the aforementioned front will have pushed
into the Western Gulf of Alaska. This system will bring the chance
for light precipitation across Southcentral into the mid-week.
Additionally Tuesday afternoon, the leading front of a new low
pressure system will be pushing into the Western Aleutians,
sporting the potential for more storm-force winds and hurricane-
force gusts.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Deterministic models remain in fair agreement in the short-term
with modest agreement at the synoptic levels. Forecast confidence
begins mild but grows by Tuesday morning due to the shift toward a
weather pattern dominated by synoptic-scale features. As such, one
source of model discrepancies in the short-term is the expiration
of snowfall over the Anchorage area. While the general consensus
leans towards a morning expiration, it is difficult to determine
exactly when to expect the shut off, and how lingering localized
showers will affect snowfall into the morning hours. Model
agreement begins to come much more in-line as that weak system
departs and the strong low in the Central Aleutians dominates the
pattern. There are some disagreements regarding the progression of
the front sweeping eastward, with the 00Z Euro showing it
slightly faster, however the difference is minimal and impact of
the difference is negligible. The model solutions do struggle
with resolving the precipitation impact of this front once it
reaches Southcentral Alaska by Tuesday afternoon. As it stands for
Tuesday afternoon, the role of downsloping winds in the Anchorage
area is in question which muddles the confidence regarding
additional snowfall amounts at that time.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Predominant IFR vis ranging from 1-3 SM due to light
snow, with intermittent periods of MVFR and LIFR visibilities to
continue through early this morning. Lingering MVFR cigs expected
to lift to VFR cigs by later this morning. Snowfall is expected to
diminish by late morning Monday. Steady northerly flow to persist
through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Snowfall is lingering across the Anchorage area this morning.
This is still expected to taper off throughout the morning. Breaks
in the clouds may even be possible later this afternoon. The peak
of the cold air advection is over. Extreme freezing spray will
remain possible through Kamishak Bay and the Barren Islands
through this morning but conditions should see gradual improve
with a brief lull in the weather. A return to south to
southeasterly winds will begin to ramp up after midnight into
Tuesday morning.

Around midnight into Tuesday morning, a front from an occluded
low out west will bring strong southeasterly winds and
precipitation to Kodiak Island. It should initially be cold enough
for snow at first. A brief period of heavier snowfall with
reduced visibility is possible. Going into later Tuesday morning,
relatively warmer air will start to nose into Kodiak. It will
generally remain near freezing enough for precipitation to be
mostly snow, but a mix of rain and snow will be possible. As
strong west to southwesterly winds move across the Island, some
downsloping may occur to cut off precipitation, and a brief period
of warmer temperatures could mix down.

While there will be warmer air advecting across at least the
coastal areas of Southcentral, much of the precipitation is
expected to remain as snow. Uncertainty in the forecast increases
as the low moves into Southcentral as well, particularly in the
accumulation of precipitation and how much downsloping will occur
on the lee of the Kenai and Chugach Mountains into Anchorage and
Kenai. The potential for snow to fall in Anchorage is possible
Tuesday morning however, but accumulations are expected to light.
Precipitation chances taper off again for Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Thursday)...

A shortwave upper-level ridge builds into the Southwest Mainland from
the southwest through most of the day today, promoting clearing
skies and drier conditions. A front extending from a North
Pacific low lifts to the Alaska Peninsula later this morning and
early this afternoon, spreading precipitation and elevated winds
to the area. The front will track to the northeast, and winds and
precipitation with the front will weaken over the Bristol Bay
region starting Tuesday morning. An upper-level ridge will build
across the region from the Bering, tapering off any lingering
precipitation and promoting dry conditions for most of Wednesday
and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 to 3: Today
through Thursday)...

A North Pacific low continues to approach the Aleutian Chain this
morning while pushing its front northward across the Central and
Eastern Aleutians. The core of strongest northeasterly winds are
currently located to the west of Adak. The front will lift
northward to the Pribilof Islands early this morning, promoting
snow and gusty northeasterly winds. Blizzard conditions are
expected to develop this morning and persist into Tuesday morning as
strong winds and snowfall wrap around the north side of the low.
For the rest of Tuesday, the low will weaken as it continues
tracking to the east, with the center remaining south of the
Aleutian Chain and the front tracking into Southwest Alaska. The
next feature of note is a strong Kamchatka low that pushes its
front northeastward across the Western Aleutians by Tuesday
afternoon. The front lifts across the Central Aleutians and
Western/Central Bering on Wednesday morning and then to the
Eastern Aleutians and Bering by Thursday morning. The low itself
is advertised to near the Western Aleutians on Wednesday but then
remain nearly stationary Thursday. With this system's front, the
strongest easterly winds are expected across the Western Aleutians
from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

At the onset of this forecast period, expect a highly amplified
pattern with the trough axis near the western Aleutians. Expect a
series of strong lows forecast to track across the region. There
is model divergence that increases with time. But there are some
trends. The Gulf of Alaska continues to look active. Out west, a
low near Kamchatka, potentially as deep as 952 mb, pushes a front
into the central and eastern Aleutians on Thursday. The ECMWF and
the Canadian bring the remnants of this front into Southwest AK
on Friday. A new surface low forms south of Adak on Friday. The
GFS is the outlier. With a potentially strong low pressure at the
surface portions of Alaska will receive gusty winds and light to
moderate precipitation. This appears most likely for the Aleutians
but it is becoming more likely for the southern coast as well,
dependent on the eventual storm track. Additionally, expect a
series of shortwaves embedded in the long wave pattern that will
influence the sensible weather.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch 191
		 Blizzard Warning 195.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 121 129 130 131 132 137 139
									  140 141 150 160 179 180 185
									  412 414.
		 Storm Warning 130 175 177 178 413
		 Gale Warning 119 120 131 132 138 139 150 155 160 165 170
					  174 176 179 180 351 352 411 412 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...VR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AF
LONG TERM...PS