Blizzard Warning 5, NWS Anchorage, AK

792 
WWAK42 PAFC 141553
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
653 AM AKST Tue Feb 14 2023

AKZ195-150500-
/O.CAN.PAFC.BZ.W.0004.000000T0000Z-230214T1800Z/
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0005.230215T1800Z-230216T0300Z/
Pribilof Islands-
Including the city of Saint Paul
653 AM AKST Tue Feb 14 2023

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. Reduced 
  visibilities to one quarter mile or less.

* WHERE...Pribilof Islands.

* WHEN...From 9 AM to 6 PM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on very difficult travel conditions, with 
  whiteout conditions at times.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The first round of blizzard conditions is
  coming to an end as winds diminish through the day. 

  A new front will bring another round of strong winds and 
  snowfall to the Pribilof Islands on Wednesday. Gusty 
  southeasterly winds are expected to peak Wednesday afternoon 
  before diminishing in the evening. Snowfall will likely be 
  heaviest Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon before 
  precipitation transitions to a rain/snow mix in the evening. 
 
 Strong winds combined with new and recent snowfall are expected 
 to promote blizzard conditions Wednesday morning into Wednesday 
 evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you.If you get stranded, stay
with your vehicle. 

&&

$$

AKZ191-150500-
/O.CON.PAFC.WS.W.0003.230214T2000Z-230215T0600Z/
Western Aleutians-
Including the city of Shemya and Amchitka
653 AM AKST Tue Feb 14 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
TO 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 3 to 7 inches. Visibility reduced to one half 
  mile or less at times. Winds gusting as high as 80 mph.

* WHERE...Western Aleutians.

* WHEN...From 11 AM to 9 PM AKST today.

* IMPACTS...Plan on difficult travel conditions, with whiteout 
  conditions at times. Areas of blowing snow could significantly 
  reduce visibility. Very strong winds could damage property and 
  cause power outages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A strong front will approach from the 
  south late this morning with temperatures initially near or 
  below freezing, allowing precipitation along the front to fall 
  as snow. Winds will drop off quickly as the front moves 
  through this evening and as snow begins to mix with rain, 
  leading to rapidly improving conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case
of an emergency.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

216 
WWAK42 PAFC 150121
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
421 PM AKST Tue Feb 14 2023

AKZ195-151500-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0005.230215T1800Z-230216T0300Z/
Pribilof Islands-
Including the city of Saint Paul
421 PM AKST Tue Feb 14 2023

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. Reduced 
  visibilities to one quarter mile or less.

* WHERE...Pribilof Islands.

* WHEN...From 9 AM to 6 PM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on very difficult travel conditions, with 
  whiteout conditions at times.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A new front will bring another round of
  strong winds and snowfall to the Pribilof Islands on Wednesday.
  Gusty southeasterly winds are expected to peak Wednesday
  afternoon before diminishing in the evening. Snowfall will
  likely be heaviest Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon
  before precipitation transitions to a rain/snow mix in the
  evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you.If you get stranded, stay
with your vehicle.

&&

$$

AKZ191-150600-
/O.CON.PAFC.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-230215T0600Z/
Western Aleutians-
Including the city of Shemya and Amchitka
421 PM AKST Tue Feb 14 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow occurring. Total snow 
  accumulations of 3 to 7 inches. Visibility reduced to one half 
  mile or less at times. Winds gusting as high as 80 mph.

* WHERE...Western Aleutians.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on difficult travel conditions, with whiteout 
  conditions at times. Areas of blowing snow could significantly 
  reduce visibility. Very strong winds could damage property and 
  cause power outages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Widespread snow, blowing snow and high
  winds will continue this afternoon. Winds will drop off quickly
  as the front moves through later this evening and as snow 
  begins to mix with rain, leading to rapidly improving 
  conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case
of an emergency.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

631 
WWAK42 PAFC 150600
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
900 PM AKST Tue Feb 14 2023

AKZ191-150700-
/O.EXP.PAFC.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-230215T0600Z/
Western Aleutians-
Including the city of Shemya and Amchitka
900 PM AKST Tue Feb 14 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING HAS EXPIRED...


$$

AKZ195-151500-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0005.230215T1800Z-230216T0300Z/
Pribilof Islands-
Including the city of Saint Paul
900 PM AKST Tue Feb 14 2023

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. Reduced 
  visibilities to one quarter mile or less.

* WHERE...Pribilof Islands.

* WHEN...From 9 AM to 6 PM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on very difficult travel conditions, with 
  whiteout conditions at times.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A new front will bring another round of 
  strong winds and snowfall to the Pribilof Islands on 
  Wednesday. Gusty southeasterly winds are expected to peak 
  Wednesday afternoon before diminishing in the evening. 
  Snowfall will likely be heaviest Wednesday morning through 
  Wednesday afternoon before precipitation transitions to a 
  rain/snow mix in the evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you.If you get stranded, stay
with your vehicle.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

728 
WWAK42 PAFC 151346
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
446 AM AKST Wed Feb 15 2023

AKZ195-160300-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0005.230215T1800Z-230216T0300Z/
Pribilof Islands-
Including the city of Saint Paul
446 AM AKST Wed Feb 15 2023

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM AKST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
  2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. Reduced 
  visibilities to one quarter mile or less.

* WHERE...Pribilof Islands.

* WHEN...From 9 AM to 6 PM AKST today.

* IMPACTS...Plan on very difficult travel conditions, with 
  whiteout conditions at times.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A front will bring another round of strong
  winds and snowfall to the Pribilof Islands today. Gusty
  southeasterly winds are expected to peak this afternoon before
  diminishing this evening. Heaviest snowfall is expected this
  morning into the afternoon before precipitation transitions to 
  a rain/snow mix in the evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you.If you get stranded, stay
with your vehicle. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

088 
WWAK42 PAFC 160110
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
410 PM AKST Wed Feb 15 2023

AKZ195-160215-
/O.CAN.PAFC.BZ.W.0005.000000T0000Z-230216T0300Z/
Pribilof Islands-
Including the city of Saint Paul
410 PM AKST Wed Feb 15 2023

...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Snow has ended across the islands and conditions have improved.

$$

AKZ155-161500-
/O.NEW.PAFC.WW.Y.0018.230217T0600Z-230217T1500Z/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel and Nunivak Island
410 PM AKST Wed Feb 15 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM
AKST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Blowing snow expected. Snow accumulations of 2 to 4 
  inches. Easterly winds gusting as high as 40 mph. Visibilities 
  reduced to one half mile.

* WHERE...Kuskokwim Delta.

* WHEN...From 9 PM Thursday to 6 AM AKST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce 
  visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibilities will decrease late Thursday
  evening with the onset of snow along the Kuskokwim Delta coast.
  Snow will progress from south to north through the night. The
  strongest winds and worst visibilities are expected along the
  coast. By Friday morning the main front will push north of the
  area and steady snow will turn to snow showers, which should 
  allow visibility to improve.
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
431 PM AKST Mon Feb 13 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The previous trough that brought snow to Southcentral is shearing
out with the energy sliding to both the Panhandle and Bering
Strait region. Arctic air flowing through the gaps of the Alaska
Range is bringing gustier winds from Seward through Whitter.
Otherwise, one major feature remains over our area of responsibility,
a large mature storm system south of the Aleutians between Atka
and Unalaska. The front associated with the system is currently
bringing blizzard conditions to the Pribilof Islands, as well as a
period of heavy wet snow for the Unalaska area earlier today. The
front has a good fetch of sub-tropical moisture with around one
inch of precipitable water detected by satellite, which is 200% of
normal for this time of year. Given the extent of the arctic air
mass over the area, the warm sector of the system is sliding to
the east keeping snow in the area as opposed to rain.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

There is good agreement among models today as the upper level and
lower level features have peaked in intensity and are weakening.
The front over the Aleutians slides onto the southwestern Mainland
and the Gulf through Tuesday. Attention then turns to an extremely
strong storm system in the northwestern Pacific Ocean, where
guidance is in good agreement with a sub-940 mb low. The
associated front will affect the western Aleutians on Tuesday,
sliding eastward through the week. Later in the week model
agreement gets a little messier but the general consensus is that
a new disturbance riding the front will spin up a new circulation
in the eastern Bering Sea on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. There is a
chance for fog and lower ceilings for a short period late this
evening into Saturday morning. Fog and stratus formation is lower
confidence, but winds are going to be light and skies clear which
make it more likely. However, winds are going to be shifting to
the north in response to the incoming front/low which should limit
how long fog does stick around.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Thursday)...

An unsettled but benign pattern is expected across Southcentral
over the next few days. A front will move across the region
Tuesday afternoon and bring another round of snow. As of now,
less than one inch of snow is expected in Anchorage. The highest
snowfall accumulations are expected across the Chugach Mountains
near Prince William Sound. Snow will then taper off Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning across Southcentral.

The other story is the winds in Passage Canal will continue to
ease this evening and tonight. Otherwise, no additional significant
weather expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Thursday)...

A switch from the bitter cold to a bit more seasonable temperatures
will begin to take place between tonight and tomorrow, but not
without a return to more snow and gusty wind for many. A front
stemming from a now weakening but still storm force low over the
Aleutians will make its approach into the northern Alaska
Peninsula and towards Bristol Bay tonight, sending another round
of snowfall inland as east to northeast winds begin to pick up and
become gustier near the coast. Areas of blowing snow and reduced
visibility will be likely as the front moves in with the strongest
winds, but this should improve as the front weakens throughout
the day on Tuesday and winds begin to relax. By Tuesday evening,
the low will shift towards the northern Gulf as a shortwave ridge
moves in from the west, allowing for snow to end from west to east
and even partially clearing skies. Between Wednesday afternoon
and Thursday, yet another front from the Bering will push onshore
with additional accumulating snowfall across much of the outlook
area. Fortunately, this front will be weakening rapidly on
arrival, resulting in low potential for blowing snow and keeping
accumulations light.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Thursday)...

The parade of powerful lows/fronts across the Bering is set to
continue full steam ahead through Thursday. In the near term,
blizzard conditions will continue unabated across the Pribilof
Island tonight. Improvement is not expected until the weakening
but still storm force low and occluded front shifts towards the
Alaska Peninsula, allowing falling snow to retreat to the
southeast and winds to finally drop off. Further south across the
central/eastern Aleutians, the heavy snow observed earlier today
has since changed over to rain showers, with winds now much
weaker near the stacked low's center. Gusty north winds at gale
force range will progress east across the Aleutian Chain through
Tuesday evening as the low shifts into the Gulf, with cooling
temperatures shifting any falling precipitation back over to snow.

Attention then quickly shifts back to the western Aleutians, with
a potent front expected to push into the region in association
with a rapidly deepening low bottoming out in the 930-940 mb range
south of Kamchatka. Sustained storm force winds will move in
coincident with heavy snow, resulting in a period of blowing snow
and significantly reduced visibility before temperatures warm and
allow snow to mix with rain Tuesday evening. A Winter Storm
Warning (replacing the High Wind Watch) has been issued for the
western Aleutians beginning late Tuesday morning for the
combination of snow, blowing snow and high winds.

On Wednesday, the front will continue across the Aleutian Chain
and reach the Pribilofs, with the preceding cold again resulting
in a transition from snow to rain as the front moves across. It's
looking more likely the warm air will not reach far enough north
to change precipitation type over across the Pribilofs, resulting
in a return threat for significant snow and blowing snow along the
front. Unsettled conditions will continue behind the front on
Thursday, with yet another frontal system and warmer air set to
cross into the Bering with more rain, snow and wind.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

At the beginning of the forecast period, the jet stream looks like
it will move from the northern Pacific and cross near the eastern
Aleutians and northeast towards the southern mainland and northern
Gulf of Alaska. This will drive a low pressure system into the
northern Bering on Friday which could potentially bring strong
winds along the Kuskokwim Delta as well as blowing snow with
possible blizzard conditions. The occluded front with this low
will impact much of the southern mainland with snow on Friday
and Saturday. There is some model differences with this system,
especially with surface winds, however, it looks like there is
a good chance of snow across Southwest and Southcentral Alaska.
As we head into Sunday and Monday there is a bit more model
disagreement, but the trend is for continued southwesterly flow
across the southern mainland with short-waves bringing chances
of snow. Otherwise, there is no indication of any strong systems
with a more amplified pattern developing by Monday with a ridge
building over the Bering Sea and Aleutians and deepening lows/
troughs over the northwest Pacific and Gulf of Alaska.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning 191.
         Blizzard Warning 195.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 121 129 130 139 140 150 160 165
                                      179 185.
         Storm Warning 175 177 178.
         Gale Warning 119 130 131 138 139 150 155 160 165 170 172 173
                      174 176 179 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ED
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AS
LONG TERM...RC