Alert archive / Alaska / Storm Warnings in 2023
Storm Warning 65, NWS Anchorage, AK
NWS Anchorage, AK issued this storm warning at Mar 18, 2023, 3:43 PM AKDT. It was in force for 48 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 18, 2023, 3:43 PM AKDT (23:43 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 20, 2023, 3:19 PM AKDT
- In force
- 48 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Anchorage, AK
The text
As transmitted.
316 FZAK62 PAFC 182343 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 18 2023 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-191315- 343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 18 2023 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... Several troughs move over the Western Bering by Sun afternoon. A 993 mb North Pacific low drives to 57N 178W at 956 mb for Sun night, then shifts to 63N 173W at 960 mb by Mon afternoon. Its front crosses the Aleutians and Bering into Western Alaska by Mon afternoon. $$ PKZ411-191315- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 18 2023 ...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Snow. .SUN...SE wind 25 to 40 kt increasing to 40 to 55 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Snow and rain. .SUN NIGHT...W wind 40 to 55 kt diminishing to 30 to 45 kt after midnight. Seas 13 to 28 ft. Snow and rain. .MON...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. .MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. .THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. $$ PKZ412-191315- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 18 2023 ...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft. .SUN...S wind 10 to 20 kt becoming SE 30 to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Snow and rain. .SUN NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft. Rain and snow. .MON...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. .TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. $$ PKZ413-191315- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 18 2023 ...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming SW up to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft. .SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 40 to 55 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 10 ft building to 11 to 19 ft in the afternoon. Rain with snow. .SUN NIGHT...SW wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft building to 24 to 36 ft after midnight. .MON...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 32 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft. .TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. $$ PKZ414-191315- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 18 2023 ...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 6 ft. Freezing spray. .SUN...SW wind 10 to 20 kt becoming S 15 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 6 ft. .SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain. .MON...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. .MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. $$
4 follow-up statements
813 FZAK62 PAFC 191135 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 335 AM AKDT Sun Mar 19 2023 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-200130- 335 AM AKDT Sun Mar 19 2023 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 962 mb low at 52N 170E moves to 61N 173W at 958 mb by Mon morning. A 989 mb low develops at 53N 171E Mon afternoon. $$ PKZ411-200130- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 335 AM AKDT Sun Mar 19 2023 ...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...SE wind 25 to 40 kt increasing to 35 to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 to 11 ft building to 11 to 19 ft in the afternoon. Snow and rain. .TONIGHT...W wind 40 to 55 kt diminishing to 30 to 45 kt after midnight. Seas 14 to 26 ft. Snow and rain. .MON...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. .MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. .THU...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. $$ PKZ412-200130- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 335 AM AKDT Sun Mar 19 2023 ...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY... .TODAY...S wind 10 to 20 kt becoming SE 30 to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain and snow. .TONIGHT...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft building to 17 to 32 ft after midnight. Rain and snow. .MON...W wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 22 to 35 ft subsiding to 16 to 27 ft in the afternoon. Snow. .MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. .TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. $$ PKZ413-200130- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 335 AM AKDT Sun Mar 19 2023 ...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT... .TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 40 to 55 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 9 ft building to 10 to 18 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow. .TONIGHT...SW wind 50 to 65 kt. Gusts to 80 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft building to 26 to 36 ft after midnight. Rain and snow. .MON...W wind 30 to 45 kt becoming SW 20 to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 to 32 ft subsiding to 15 to 22 ft in the afternoon. Snow. .MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft. .TUE...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. .WED...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. .THU...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. $$ PKZ414-200130- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 335 AM AKDT Sun Mar 19 2023 ...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY... .TODAY...SW wind 10 to 20 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 6 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. .TONIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft building to 9 to 17 ft after midnight. Rain and snow. .MON...SW wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 30 to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Snow. .MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. $$
260 FZAK62 PAFC 192257 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 257 PM AKDT Sun Mar 19 2023 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-201330- 257 PM AKDT Sun Mar 19 2023 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A strong 956 mb low at 56N 177E moves over the Chukotsk Peninsula at 980 mb for Tue afternoon. Its front sweeps across the Aleutians and Bering into Western Alaska by Tue morning. A 980 mb Sea of Okhotsk low drives to 57N 164W at 986 mb for Tue afternoon. Its front extends across the Alaska Peninsula by Tue afternoon. $$ PKZ411-201330- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 257 PM AKDT Sun Mar 19 2023 ...STORM WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...W wind 40 to 55 kt diminishing to 30 to 45 kt after midnight. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Snow and rain. .MON...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. .MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. .TUE...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. .TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. .WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. $$ PKZ412-201330- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 257 PM AKDT Sun Mar 19 2023 ...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY... .TONIGHT...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft. Rain and snow. .MON...W wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 to 31 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. .TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. .TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. .WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. .FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. $$ PKZ413-201330- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 257 PM AKDT Sun Mar 19 2023 ...STORM WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 22 to 35 ft. Rain showers. .MON...W wind 30 to 45 kt becoming SW 20 to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 to 24 ft. and widespread rain showers. .MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Widespread snow and rain showers. .TUE...NW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. .TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft. .WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. .THU...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. .FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. $$ PKZ414-201330- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 257 PM AKDT Sun Mar 19 2023 ...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY... .TONIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain and snow. .MON...SW wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 30 to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Snow and rain showers. .MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Widespread rain showers. .TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. .TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. $$
532 FZAK62 PAFC 201148 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 348 AM AKDT Mon Mar 20 2023 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-210045- 348 AM AKDT Mon Mar 20 2023 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 956 mb low at 62N 174W this morning will move into eastern Siberia this afternoon. A second 988 mb low at 54N 175E this afternoon will move to 56N 168W at 987 mb Tuesday morning. This low then exits into the Gulf Wednesday morning. $$ PKZ411-210045- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 348 AM AKDT Mon Mar 20 2023 ...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY... .TODAY...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. .TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 20 to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 11 to 14 ft. .TUE...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft. Freezing spray N of 58N. .TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. .WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. $$ PKZ412-210045- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 348 AM AKDT Mon Mar 20 2023 ...STORM WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...W wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 65 kt in the morning. Seas 18 to 33 ft. .TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. .TUE...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft. .TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. .WED THROUGH THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. .FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. $$ PKZ413-210045- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 348 AM AKDT Mon Mar 20 2023 ...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY... .TODAY...W wind 30 to 45 kt becoming SW 15 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 to 30 ft. .TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft. Snow and rain. .TUE...NW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 17 ft. .TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft. .WED...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. .THU...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. $$ PKZ414-210045- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 348 AM AKDT Mon Mar 20 2023 ...STORM WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...SW wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 30 to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft. .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Snow. .TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming NW 20 to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Snow. .TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. $$
186 FZAK62 PAFC 202319 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 319 PM AKDT Mon Mar 20 2023 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-211315- 319 PM AKDT Mon Mar 20 2023 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 960 mb low at 63N 174W exits into the Chukchi Sea for Wed afternoon. A 986 mb low at 54N 174E moves to 55N 158W at 984 mb Tuesday afternoon, continuing into the Gulf of Alaska by Wed afternoon. $$ PKZ411-211315- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 319 PM AKDT Mon Mar 20 2023 ...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 10 to 14 ft. .TUE...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft. .TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 12 to 19 ft. Freezing spray. .WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .WED NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. .THU...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. .FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. $$ PKZ412-211315- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 319 PM AKDT Mon Mar 20 2023 ...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. .TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft. .TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers. .WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. .WED NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. .FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .SAT...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft. $$ PKZ413-211315- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 319 PM AKDT Mon Mar 20 2023 ...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft. Widespread snow and rain showers. .TUE...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 17 ft. .TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft. Snow showers. .WED...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft. .WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. .THU...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. $$ PKZ414-211315- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 319 PM AKDT Mon Mar 20 2023 ...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt becoming NW 25 to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Snow showers. .TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers. .WED...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .WED NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. .THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. .FRI...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft. .SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Mar 18, 5:32 AM AKDT, 10 hours 11 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 18, 5:32 AM AKDT, 10 hours 11 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 532 AM AKDT Sat Mar 18 2023 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... Another low pressure system lifts northwestward to the west- central Gulf by this afternoon in a similar fashion to yesterday's system. The main differences being this next system is showing a more elongated system initially before compressing as it reaches the Barren Islands, and is indicated an somewhat stronger system as a whole. The track of the front is also a glaring difference, with an east/west orientation of the warm front versus the northwest/southeast orientation associated with yesterdays's storm. This will have an impact on where the heaviest precipitation falls and how far north the warm air tracks. Cold air will quickly wrap back around the low, producing a showery pattern on the backside of the system. The system will move over the Alaska Peninsula later tonight, but shows a slightly slower decay as it moves over land. Further west, the ridge continues to break down over the Central Aleutians as a low pressure system moves over the Western Aleutians and into the Bering Sea Sunday morning. The Bering low will quickly track northeastward towards Saint Matthew Island before slowing down and drifting into the Bering Strait. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... Model guidance continues to improve with the North Pacific system approaching the Gulf of Alaska today. There has been a trend towards a more elongated system but all models show the system quickly consolidates as it reaches the Barren Islands. The overall track of the low is consistent amongst all models, but the GFS is placing the low center further south than the others and is continuing to show a stronger system (~8 mb difference between GFS and NAM/Canadian). && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through most of this morning. Late morning has a chance for another quick shot of light snow, bringing visibilities down to MVFR conditions and ceiling heights below 2000', with increased northerly winds. Conditions are expected improve through the overnight hours, however, increased winds will continue and transition to southerly. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Saturday through Monday)... Another day, another strong low tracking through the Gulf of Alaska from southeast to northwest. This low will take a similar, but slightly farther north, track than the one yesterday. That is one of two significant differences from yesterday's strong system. The second is the structure of this low compared to yesterday's. Today's low is much more elongated than the one yesterday and that will have a large impact on some areas, especially Kodiak Island. The thermal gradient at 850 mb yesterday stretched across northern Kodiak Island and brought in the strong winds and heavy snow. The gradient today will be weaker and farther north which will keep Kodiak City and Kodiak Island out of most of the snowfall. Afognak Island, on the other hand, will see heavy snowfall again this afternoon and evening. The Kenai Peninsula will be in the cross-hairs of this system again today. Strong winds and heavy snowfall are expected across the eastern Kenai prompting a Winter Storm Warning. The western Kenai is a little less certain as Kachemak Bay will likely see a periods of snow and blowing snow, but temperatures there will warm up above freezing bringing in the potential for rain to mix in or have the precipitation turn to all rain there. The atmosphere remains quite cold aloft which should keep the precipitation mostly snow even toward Homer, but it will be close. Along Cook Inlet from Nikiski southward, including the Sterling Highway corridor, there will be strong northerly winds gusting to around 35 or 40 mph. The snowfall here is less certain due to downsloping. Should the band of snowfall set up along the Inlet instead of over the Inlet, it would bring in significantly reduced visibilities in blowing snow for the Sterling Highway. After this low moves through the region overnight tonight, the should be less active weather through Monday. An upper-level trough does move across Southcentral Sunday night and MOnday, but it looks like it will have minimal impact at this time. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Monday night)... A low centered along the Alaska Peninsula will slowly track out into the north Pacific today before a second system moves into Southwest Alaska tonight. The vertically tilted first low extends its influence northward across Bristol Bay this morning, with light snow showers ongoing along the coast. These will diminish in intensity through the morning as the low exits southward slowly, leaving partly cloudy skies in its wake. Solar heating will bring high temperatures into the 20s and 30s for much of the region. Then, a deepening low in the Gulf of Alaska will take a similar track to yesterday's system. This system, however, looks to bring more snow and remain more consolidated as it tracks over Southwest Alaska. Winds increase this evening ahead of the approaching low as snow begins to push across the Aleutian Range into Bristol Bay. Snow will spread westward through Saturday night, bringing total accumulations of 2 to 4 inches through Sunday, with lower amounts extending northward into the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. Blowing snow will be a brief threat with a band of heavier snow, focused near the villages of New Stuyahok and Koliganek Sunday morning, which should reduce visibility to one half mile at times. There is also some potential that Dillingham could see visibilities this low as well, but the western edge of the heaviest snow looks to set up near the city, which will limit the likelihood of any prolonged visibility reduction. By late Sunday morning, the low center moves over Southwest Alaska, reducing winds and the threat of blowing snow. Snow then retreats back to the east and begins to taper off as the low weakens and is pushed back to the east by a transient ridge out ahead of a larger system approaching from the Bering Sea. This large low will send a front eastward into the mainland Monday morning. Temperatures aloft and a rapid occlusion suggest that snow will be the primary precipitation type, but strong southerlies and the March solar intensity may allow for some rain to mix in as the front moves east across the region through Monday night. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Monday night)... Cooler, northerly winds continue over the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula through Sunday morning as low pressure persists along the Alaska Peninsula and over Southwest Alaska. Out west,a weak front pushes into the western/central Bering today and tonight. Then, a deep low in the North Pacific approaches the Western Aleutians Sunday morning, bringing increasing winds, snow, and rain to the islands. As the low tracks into the Bering, it will bring hurricane force winds to the region. The main question is the exact track of the low, which will determine whether Shemya sees 75 mph gusts or greater on Sunday. The threat is currently high enough that a High Wind Watch remains out for that area. The low pushes to the central Bering Sunday night as it occludes, bringing storm force winds and high seas along with it. Rain is likely in the Pribilof Islands with a strong push of southerly flow out ahead of the low. By Monday, the low weakens and tracks into the northern Bering as it pushes its front into Southwest Alaska, allowing rain and snow showers to overspread much of the Bering Sea going into Monday night. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday) The long-term period opens with a Bering Sea front working into coastal and interior Southwest Alaska providing good chances at snow. An additional shortwave trough digs southward from the parent trough in Siberia through the Bering Sea, across the Aleutian Chain, and into the North Pacific Tuesday afternoon. This will generate a low pressure system in the central Bering Tuesday morning that moves quickly eastward to Southwest Tuesday afternoon bringing widespread precipitation to coastal Southwest as well as the Alaska Peninsula before working its way to interior Southwest during the evening. Meanwhile, gusty northerly flow and cold air advection on the backside of this system ensues for the central and eastern Aleutian Chain giving the chance at snow showers through most of the rest of the long-term/Friday morning. A triple point low then looks to spawn either in the western Gulf or North Pacific Tuesday evening as the upper trough becomes increasingly negatively tilted. There is disagreement on how the trough evolves Tuesday evening. The 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF have a more negatively tilted trough with storm formation in the vicinity of Kodiak Island, while the 12z Canadian guidance is not as negatively tilted and forms the storm further to south in the North Pacific. Regardless, this system looks to give coastal Southcentral Alaska another good chance at amplified precipitation Wednesday and Thursday, while interior Southcentral will still have precipitation chances, just not quite the chance at heavier precipitation. Questions also arise for Southcentral at the end of the long-term period Thursday evening as guidance hints at another low forming in the Gulf then. However, confidence remains low on timing, strength, as well positioning of this feature. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning: 125 Winter Weather Advisory: 121 161 High Wind Watch: 191 MARINE...Hurricane Warning: Western Aleutians Storm Warning: Northern Gulf of Alaska, Eastern/Central Bering, Central Aleutians Gale Warning: Prince William Sound, Passage Canal, Barren Islands, Kodiak Islands Waters, Cook Inlet, Kachemak Bay, Western Gulf of Alaska, Heavy Freezing Spray Warning: Western Bering, Alaska Peninsula - Bering Side, Pribilof Islands FIRE WEATHER...NONE. && SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KM SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CQ LONG TERM...DAN
The office that day
Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 4:18 PM AKDT | Brisk Wind Advisory | AFC | 59 hr | |
| Mar 17, 4:18 PM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 59 hr | |
| Mar 17, 4:22 PM AKDT | Brisk Wind Advisory | AFC | 12 hr | |
| Mar 17, 4:22 PM AKDT | Gale Warning | AFC | 36 hr | |
| Mar 17, 4:22 PM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 3 days | |
| Mar 17, 4:22 PM AKDT | Storm Warning | AFC | 36 hr | |
| Mar 17, 4:32 PM AKDT | Gale Warning | AFC | 35 hr | |
| Mar 17, 8:09 PM AKDT | Winter Storm Watch | AFC | 9 hr | |
| Mar 18, 3:45 AM AKDT | Gale Warning | AFC | 12 hr | |
| Mar 18, 3:45 AM AKDT | Storm Warning | AFC | 48 hr | |
| Mar 18, 3:50 AM AKDT | Brisk Wind Advisory | AFC | 12 hr | |
| Mar 18, 3:50 AM AKDT | Gale Warning | AFC | 24 hr | |
| Mar 18, 3:50 AM AKDT | Hurricane Force Wind Warning | AFC | 35 hr | |
| Mar 18, 3:50 AM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 48 hr | |
| Mar 18, 3:50 AM AKDT | Storm Warning | AFC | 48 hr | |
| Mar 18, 3:50 AM AKDT | Heavy Freezing Spray Warning | AFC | 12 hr | |
| Mar 18, 4:02 AM AKDT | Gale Warning | AFC | 24 hr | |
| Mar 18, 4:02 AM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 24 hr | |
| Mar 18, 4:21 AM AKDT | Winter Weather Advisory | AFC | 27 hr | |
| Mar 18, 4:45 AM AKDT | Winter Storm Warning | AFC | 19 hr | |
| Mar 18, 4:45 AM AKDT | Winter Weather Advisory | AFC | 19 hr | |
| Mar 18, 3:43 PM AKDT | Gale Warning | AFC | 12 hr | |
| Mar 18, 3:52 PM AKDT | Gale Warning | AFC | 36 hr | |
| Mar 18, 3:52 PM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 36 hr | |
| Mar 18, 3:52 PM AKDT | Storm Warning | AFC | 36 hr | |
| Mar 18, 3:59 PM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 12 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.