Alert archive / Alaska / Storm Warnings in 2023

Storm Warning 65, NWS Anchorage, AK

March 18, 2023

NWS Anchorage, AK issued this storm warning at Mar 18, 2023, 3:43 PM AKDT. It was in force for 48 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Mar 18, 2023, 3:43 PM AKDT (23:43 UTC)
Expired
Mar 20, 2023, 3:19 PM AKDT
In force
48 hr
Issued by
NWS Anchorage, AK

The text

As transmitted.

316 
FZAK62 PAFC 182343
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 18 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-191315-
343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 18 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

Several troughs move over the Western Bering by Sun afternoon. A 
993 mb North Pacific low drives to 57N 178W at 956 mb for Sun 
night, then shifts to 63N 173W at 960 mb by Mon afternoon. Its 
front crosses the Aleutians and Bering into Western Alaska by Mon 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-191315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 18 2023

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Snow.
.SUN...SE wind 25 to 40 kt increasing to 40 to 55 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 40 to 55 kt diminishing to 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 13 to 28 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-191315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 18 2023

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 to 20 kt becoming SE 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ413-191315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 18 2023

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming SW up to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 40 to 55 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 5 to 10 ft building to 11 to 19 ft in the
afternoon. Rain with snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft building to 24
to 36 ft after midnight.
.MON...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 32 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ414-191315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 18 2023

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...SW wind 10 to 20 kt becoming S 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 1 to 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$
4 follow-up statements
813 
FZAK62 PAFC 191135
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
335 AM AKDT Sun Mar 19 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-200130-
335 AM AKDT Sun Mar 19 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 962 mb low at 52N 170E moves to 61N 173W at 958 mb by Mon
morning. A 989 mb low develops at 53N 171E Mon afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-200130-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
335 AM AKDT Sun Mar 19 2023

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 to 40 kt increasing to 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 11 ft building to 11 to 19 ft in the
afternoon. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 to 55 kt diminishing to 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 14 to 26 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-200130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
335 AM AKDT Sun Mar 19 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 to 20 kt becoming SE 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft building to 17 to
32 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.MON...W wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 22 to 35 ft subsiding to 16 to 27 ft in the
afternoon. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ413-200130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
335 AM AKDT Sun Mar 19 2023

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 40 to 55 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 to 9 ft building to 10 to 18 ft in the
afternoon. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 50 to 65 kt. Gusts to 80 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft 
building to 26 to 36 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.MON...W wind 30 to 45 kt becoming SW 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 18 to 32 ft subsiding to 15 to 22 ft in the 
afternoon. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-200130-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
335 AM AKDT Sun Mar 19 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 20 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 1 to 6 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft building to 9 to
17 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.MON...SW wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 30 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$
260 
FZAK62 PAFC 192257
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
257 PM AKDT Sun Mar 19 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-201330-
257 PM AKDT Sun Mar 19 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A strong 956 mb low at 56N 177E moves over the Chukotsk Peninsula at
980 mb for Tue afternoon. Its front sweeps across the Aleutians and 
Bering into Western Alaska by Tue morning. A 980 mb Sea of Okhotsk 
low drives to 57N 164W at 986 mb for Tue afternoon. Its front extends
across the Alaska Peninsula by Tue afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-201330-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
257 PM AKDT Sun Mar 19 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 to 55 kt diminishing to 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-201330-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
257 PM AKDT Sun Mar 19 2023

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...W wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-201330-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
257 PM AKDT Sun Mar 19 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 22 to 35 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...W wind 30 to 45 kt becoming SW 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 16 to 24 ft. and widespread rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas
9 to 14 ft. Widespread snow and rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-201330-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
257 PM AKDT Sun Mar 19 2023

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...SW wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 30 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$
532 
FZAK62 PAFC 201148
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
348 AM AKDT Mon Mar 20 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-210045-
348 AM AKDT Mon Mar 20 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 956 mb low at 62N 174W this morning will move into eastern
Siberia this afternoon. A second 988 mb low at 54N 175E this
afternoon will move to 56N 168W at 987 mb Tuesday morning. This
low then exits into the Gulf Wednesday morning. 

$$

PKZ411-210045-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
348 AM AKDT Mon Mar 20 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft. Freezing spray N of 58N. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ412-210045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
348 AM AKDT Mon Mar 20 2023

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Gusts to 65 kt in the morning. Seas 18 to 33 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-210045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
348 AM AKDT Mon Mar 20 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 to 45 kt becoming SW 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 15 to 30 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE...NW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-210045-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
348 AM AKDT Mon Mar 20 2023

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 30 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Snow.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming NW 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$
186 
FZAK62 PAFC 202319
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
319 PM AKDT Mon Mar 20 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-211315-
319 PM AKDT Mon Mar 20 2023

.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 960 mb low at 63N 174W exits into the Chukchi Sea for Wed 
afternoon. A 986 mb low at 54N 174E moves to 55N 158W at 984 mb 
Tuesday afternoon, continuing into the Gulf of Alaska by Wed 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-211315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
319 PM AKDT Mon Mar 20 2023

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 12 to 19 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ412-211315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
319 PM AKDT Mon Mar 20 2023

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ413-211315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
319 PM AKDT Mon Mar 20 2023

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft. Widespread snow
and rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft. Snow showers.
.WED...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ414-211315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
319 PM AKDT Mon Mar 20 2023

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt becoming NW 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.WED...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Mar 18, 5:32 AM AKDT, 10 hours 11 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 18, 5:32 AM AKDT, 10 hours 11 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
532 AM AKDT Sat Mar 18 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Another low pressure system lifts northwestward to the west-
central Gulf by this afternoon in a similar fashion to yesterday's
system. The main differences being this next system is showing a
more elongated system initially before compressing as it reaches
the Barren Islands, and is indicated an somewhat stronger system
as a whole. The track of the front is also a glaring difference,
with an east/west orientation of the warm front versus the
northwest/southeast orientation associated with yesterdays's
storm. This will have an impact on where the heaviest
precipitation falls and how far north the warm air tracks. Cold
air will quickly wrap back around the low, producing a showery
pattern on the backside of the system. The system will move over
the Alaska Peninsula later tonight, but shows a slightly slower
decay as it moves over land. Further west, the ridge continues to
break down over the Central Aleutians as a low pressure system
moves over the Western Aleutians and into the Bering Sea Sunday
morning. The Bering low will quickly track northeastward towards
Saint Matthew Island before slowing down and drifting into the
Bering Strait.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model guidance continues to improve with the North Pacific system
approaching the Gulf of Alaska today. There has been a trend
towards a more elongated system but all models show the system
quickly consolidates as it reaches the Barren Islands. The overall
track of the low is consistent amongst all models, but the GFS is
placing the low center further south than the others and is
continuing to show a stronger system (~8 mb difference between
GFS and NAM/Canadian).

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through most of
this morning. Late morning has a chance for another quick shot of
light snow, bringing visibilities down to MVFR conditions and
ceiling heights below 2000', with increased northerly winds.
Conditions are expected improve through the overnight hours,
however, increased winds will continue and transition to
southerly.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Saturday through Monday)...

Another day, another strong low tracking through the Gulf of
Alaska from southeast to northwest. This low will take a similar,
but slightly farther north, track than the one yesterday. That is
one of two significant differences from yesterday's strong system.
The second is the structure of this low compared to yesterday's.
Today's low is much more elongated than the one yesterday and
that will have a large impact on some areas, especially Kodiak
Island. The thermal gradient at 850 mb yesterday stretched across
northern Kodiak Island and brought in the strong winds and heavy
snow. The gradient today will be weaker and farther north which
will keep Kodiak City and Kodiak Island out of most of the
snowfall. Afognak Island, on the other hand, will see heavy
snowfall again this afternoon and evening.

The Kenai Peninsula will be in the cross-hairs of this system
again today. Strong winds and heavy snowfall are expected across
the eastern Kenai prompting a Winter Storm Warning. The western
Kenai is a little less certain as Kachemak Bay will likely see a
periods of snow and blowing snow, but temperatures there will warm
up above freezing bringing in the potential for rain to mix in or
have the precipitation turn to all rain there. The atmosphere
remains quite cold aloft which should keep the precipitation
mostly snow even toward Homer, but it will be close. Along Cook
Inlet from Nikiski southward, including the Sterling Highway
corridor, there will be strong northerly winds gusting to around
35 or 40 mph. The snowfall here is less certain due to
downsloping. Should the band of snowfall set up along the Inlet
instead of over the Inlet, it would bring in significantly reduced
visibilities in blowing snow for the Sterling Highway.

After this low moves through the region overnight tonight, the
should be less active weather through Monday. An upper-level
trough does move across Southcentral Sunday night and MOnday, but
it looks like it will have minimal impact at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday night)...

A low centered along the Alaska Peninsula will slowly track out
into the north Pacific today before a second system moves into
Southwest Alaska tonight. The vertically tilted first low extends
its influence northward across Bristol Bay this morning, with
light snow showers ongoing along the coast. These will diminish in
intensity through the morning as the low exits southward slowly,
leaving partly cloudy skies in its wake. Solar heating will bring
high temperatures into the 20s and 30s for much of the region.

Then, a deepening low in the Gulf of Alaska will take a similar
track to yesterday's system. This system, however, looks to bring
more snow and remain more consolidated as it tracks over Southwest
Alaska. Winds increase this evening ahead of the approaching low
as snow begins to push across the Aleutian Range into Bristol Bay.
Snow will spread westward through Saturday night, bringing total
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches through Sunday, with lower amounts
extending northward into the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. Blowing snow
will be a brief threat with a band of heavier snow, focused near
the villages of New Stuyahok and Koliganek Sunday morning, which
should reduce visibility to one half mile at times. There is also
some potential that Dillingham could see visibilities this low as
well, but the western edge of the heaviest snow looks to set up
near the city, which will limit the likelihood of any prolonged
visibility reduction. By late Sunday morning, the low center
moves over Southwest Alaska, reducing winds and the threat of
blowing snow.

Snow then retreats back to the east and begins to taper off as
the low weakens and is pushed back to the east by a transient
ridge out ahead of a larger system approaching from the Bering
Sea. This large low will send a front eastward into the mainland
Monday morning. Temperatures aloft and a rapid occlusion suggest
that snow will be the primary precipitation type, but strong
southerlies and the March solar intensity may allow for some rain
to mix in as the front moves east across the region through
Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday night)...

Cooler, northerly winds continue over the Eastern Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula through Sunday morning as low pressure persists
along the Alaska Peninsula and over Southwest Alaska. Out west,a
weak front pushes into the western/central Bering today and
tonight. Then, a deep low in the North Pacific approaches the
Western Aleutians Sunday morning, bringing increasing winds, snow,
and rain to the islands. As the low tracks into the Bering, it
will bring hurricane force winds to the region. The main question
is the exact track of the low, which will determine whether Shemya
sees 75 mph gusts or greater on Sunday. The threat is currently
high enough that a High Wind Watch remains out for that area. The
low pushes to the central Bering Sunday night as it occludes,
bringing storm force winds and high seas along with it. Rain is
likely in the Pribilof Islands with a strong push of southerly
flow out ahead of the low. By Monday, the low weakens and tracks
into the northern Bering as it pushes its front into Southwest
Alaska, allowing rain and snow showers to overspread much of the
Bering Sea going into Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)

The long-term period opens with a Bering Sea front working into
coastal and interior Southwest Alaska providing good chances at
snow. An additional shortwave trough digs southward from the
parent trough in Siberia through the Bering Sea, across the
Aleutian Chain, and into the North Pacific Tuesday afternoon. This
will generate a low pressure system in the central Bering Tuesday
morning that moves quickly eastward to Southwest Tuesday afternoon
bringing widespread precipitation to coastal Southwest as well as
the Alaska Peninsula before working its way to interior Southwest
during the evening. Meanwhile, gusty northerly flow and cold air
advection on the backside of this system ensues for the central
and eastern Aleutian Chain giving the chance at snow showers
through most of the rest of the long-term/Friday morning. A triple
point low then looks to spawn either in the western Gulf or North
Pacific Tuesday evening as the upper trough becomes increasingly
negatively tilted. There is disagreement on how the trough
evolves Tuesday evening. The 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF have a more
negatively tilted trough with storm formation in the vicinity of
Kodiak Island, while the 12z Canadian guidance is not as
negatively tilted and forms the storm further to south in the
North Pacific. Regardless, this system looks to give coastal
Southcentral Alaska another good chance at amplified precipitation
Wednesday and Thursday, while interior Southcentral will still
have precipitation chances, just not quite the chance at heavier
precipitation. Questions also arise for Southcentral at the end of
the long-term period Thursday evening as guidance hints at
another low forming in the Gulf then. However, confidence remains
low on timing, strength, as well positioning of this feature.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning: 125
		 Winter Weather Advisory: 121 161
	 	 High Wind Watch: 191
MARINE...Hurricane Warning: Western Aleutians
		 Storm Warning: Northern Gulf of Alaska, Eastern/Central Bering,
		 Central Aleutians
		 Gale Warning: Prince William Sound, Passage Canal, Barren Islands,
		 Kodiak Islands Waters, Cook Inlet, Kachemak Bay, Western Gulf of Alaska,
		 Heavy Freezing Spray Warning: Western Bering, Alaska Peninsula - Bering
		 Side, Pribilof Islands
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CQ
LONG TERM...DAN

The office that day

Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 17, 4:18 PM AKDTBrisk Wind AdvisoryAFC59 hr
Mar 17, 4:18 PM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC59 hr
Mar 17, 4:22 PM AKDTBrisk Wind AdvisoryAFC12 hr
Mar 17, 4:22 PM AKDTGale WarningAFC36 hr
Mar 17, 4:22 PM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC3 days
Mar 17, 4:22 PM AKDTStorm WarningAFC36 hr
Mar 17, 4:32 PM AKDTGale WarningAFC35 hr
Mar 17, 8:09 PM AKDTWinter Storm WatchAFC9 hr
Mar 18, 3:45 AM AKDTGale WarningAFC12 hr
Mar 18, 3:45 AM AKDTStorm WarningAFC48 hr
Mar 18, 3:50 AM AKDTBrisk Wind AdvisoryAFC12 hr
Mar 18, 3:50 AM AKDTGale WarningAFC24 hr
Mar 18, 3:50 AM AKDTHurricane Force Wind WarningAFC35 hr
Mar 18, 3:50 AM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC48 hr
Mar 18, 3:50 AM AKDTStorm WarningAFC48 hr
Mar 18, 3:50 AM AKDTHeavy Freezing Spray WarningAFC12 hr
Mar 18, 4:02 AM AKDTGale WarningAFC24 hr
Mar 18, 4:02 AM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC24 hr
Mar 18, 4:21 AM AKDTWinter Weather AdvisoryAFC27 hr
Mar 18, 4:45 AM AKDTWinter Storm WarningAFC19 hr
Mar 18, 4:45 AM AKDTWinter Weather AdvisoryAFC19 hr
Mar 18, 3:43 PM AKDTGale WarningAFC12 hr
Mar 18, 3:52 PM AKDTGale WarningAFC36 hr
Mar 18, 3:52 PM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC36 hr
Mar 18, 3:52 PM AKDTStorm WarningAFC36 hr
Mar 18, 3:59 PM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC12 hr

Nearby

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2023Every storm warning in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.