Storm Warning 64, NWS Anchorage, AK

316 
FZAK62 PAFC 182343
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 18 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-191315-
343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 18 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

Several troughs move over the Western Bering by Sun afternoon. A 
993 mb North Pacific low drives to 57N 178W at 956 mb for Sun 
night, then shifts to 63N 173W at 960 mb by Mon afternoon. Its 
front crosses the Aleutians and Bering into Western Alaska by Mon 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-191315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 18 2023

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Snow.
.SUN...SE wind 25 to 40 kt increasing to 40 to 55 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 40 to 55 kt diminishing to 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 13 to 28 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-191315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 18 2023

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 to 20 kt becoming SE 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ413-191315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 18 2023

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming SW up to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 40 to 55 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 5 to 10 ft building to 11 to 19 ft in the
afternoon. Rain with snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft building to 24
to 36 ft after midnight.
.MON...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 32 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ414-191315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 18 2023

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...SW wind 10 to 20 kt becoming S 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 1 to 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

813 
FZAK62 PAFC 191135
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
335 AM AKDT Sun Mar 19 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-200130-
335 AM AKDT Sun Mar 19 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 962 mb low at 52N 170E moves to 61N 173W at 958 mb by Mon
morning. A 989 mb low develops at 53N 171E Mon afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-200130-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
335 AM AKDT Sun Mar 19 2023

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 to 40 kt increasing to 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 11 ft building to 11 to 19 ft in the
afternoon. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 to 55 kt diminishing to 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 14 to 26 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-200130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
335 AM AKDT Sun Mar 19 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 to 20 kt becoming SE 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft building to 17 to
32 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.MON...W wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 22 to 35 ft subsiding to 16 to 27 ft in the
afternoon. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ413-200130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
335 AM AKDT Sun Mar 19 2023

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 40 to 55 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 to 9 ft building to 10 to 18 ft in the
afternoon. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 50 to 65 kt. Gusts to 80 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft 
building to 26 to 36 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.MON...W wind 30 to 45 kt becoming SW 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 18 to 32 ft subsiding to 15 to 22 ft in the 
afternoon. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-200130-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
335 AM AKDT Sun Mar 19 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 20 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 1 to 6 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft building to 9 to
17 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.MON...SW wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 30 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

260 
FZAK62 PAFC 192257
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
257 PM AKDT Sun Mar 19 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-201330-
257 PM AKDT Sun Mar 19 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A strong 956 mb low at 56N 177E moves over the Chukotsk Peninsula at
980 mb for Tue afternoon. Its front sweeps across the Aleutians and 
Bering into Western Alaska by Tue morning. A 980 mb Sea of Okhotsk 
low drives to 57N 164W at 986 mb for Tue afternoon. Its front extends
across the Alaska Peninsula by Tue afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-201330-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
257 PM AKDT Sun Mar 19 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 to 55 kt diminishing to 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-201330-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
257 PM AKDT Sun Mar 19 2023

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...W wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-201330-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
257 PM AKDT Sun Mar 19 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 22 to 35 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...W wind 30 to 45 kt becoming SW 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 16 to 24 ft. and widespread rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas
9 to 14 ft. Widespread snow and rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-201330-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
257 PM AKDT Sun Mar 19 2023

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...SW wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 30 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

532 
FZAK62 PAFC 201148
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
348 AM AKDT Mon Mar 20 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-210045-
348 AM AKDT Mon Mar 20 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 956 mb low at 62N 174W this morning will move into eastern
Siberia this afternoon. A second 988 mb low at 54N 175E this
afternoon will move to 56N 168W at 987 mb Tuesday morning. This
low then exits into the Gulf Wednesday morning. 

$$

PKZ411-210045-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
348 AM AKDT Mon Mar 20 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft. Freezing spray N of 58N. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ412-210045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
348 AM AKDT Mon Mar 20 2023

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Gusts to 65 kt in the morning. Seas 18 to 33 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-210045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
348 AM AKDT Mon Mar 20 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 to 45 kt becoming SW 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 15 to 30 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE...NW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-210045-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
348 AM AKDT Mon Mar 20 2023

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 30 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Snow.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming NW 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
508 PM AKDT Fri Mar 17 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An broad upper-level low continues extend into the western and
central Gulf of Alaska while spinning nearly in place. A robust
westward moving shortwave and associated strong low pressure
system is evident in the western Gulf this afternoon with the
low's occluded front continuing to lash the northern Gulf Coast.
Portions of Kodiak Island continue to experience moderate snow,
reduced visibilities to one-quarter mile at times, and
northwesterly winds gusting to 40 mph at times. A storm report
came in at 1PM this afternoon with 10 inches of snow having
already accumulated at Kodiak City; they continue to see moderate
snow at this hour. Meanwhile, warmer air has worked in to the
Turnagain Arm area and portions of western Prince William Sound
where Whittier and Portage have transitioned from snow this
morning to rain currently.

Out west, a shortwave from the western Gulf upper-level low
continues moving westward across the Alaska Range and into
interior Southwest Alaska this afternoon. Overcast conditions are
currently reported at Sparrevohn as a result of this while Port
Heiden and Nelson Lagoon report light snow. Overall, high pressure
continues to dominate the western Bering with northerly flow on
the downstream side of this ridge through the central and eastern
Bering. Dutch Harbor continues to contend with snow and blowing
snow with winds gusting to around 35 mph, while Cold Bay also
contends with snow and northerly winds around 15 mph.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Guidance continues to be in reasonably good agreement with
synoptic features through the short-term period. However, there
are still some questions on the ultimate evolution of the next
Gulf low slated for Saturday. All 12z guidance and even the 18z
NAM has trended to the GFS idea of a stronger system impacting
Kodiak Island, the Kenai Peninsula, and the northern Gulf Coast.
The 12z ECMWF has the quickest progression with the low to the
Barren Islands by Saturday evening, while the 12z Canadian is the
slowest with the progression with the system still east of Kodiak
in the western Gulf. The 12z GFS and 18z NAM are between those
solutions. This system for Saturday evening will be very similar
to today's. The forecast challenge here will once again be
precipitation-type and how much warm air works into the Kenai
Peninsula/western Prince William Sound and timing a potential
changeover from snow to rain or rain/snow mix. Then more
disagreements arise with the positioning of another Gulf low
Sunday afternoon and evening that could potentially again impact
Kodiak Island; but confidence here is low and details need to be
ironed out further.

Out west, there is good agreement on a weak frontal system
approaching the western Bering/Aleutian Chain from the west
Saturday morning. This will provide a chance at some showers and
will weaken as it moves east through the central Bering Sea
Sunday morning. Guidance is pretty locked in on a more significant
North Pacific low impacting the Bering/Aleutian Chain Saturday
night as it sends its front northward to the western/central
Chain. Storm-force winds with hurricane-force gusts are also
agreed upon guidance as the system lifts into the western Bering
Sunday afternoon. Southwest Alaska will also see impacts starting
Monday morning as the Bering system's front moves into the coast
then. The forecast challenge here will be how quickly the strong
Bering low occludes. This will ultimately decide on if any warm
air is able to work into coastal/mainland Southwest Alaska.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Winds
will turn southeasterly and reach around 15 kts as the rest of
this afternoon and evening progress before becoming north again
Saturday morning. There could be a few gusts up to 25 kts this
evening as ceiling lift above 5,000 feet. Another low pressure
system develops in the Gulf Saturday and rides westward towards
the Barren Island by Saturday evening. Precipitation in the form
of light snow is possible between Saturday afternoon into Saturday
evening before tapering off later in the evening due to downslope
southeasterly flow. Accompanying this precipitation will also be
the possibility of MVFR ceilings and visibilities with potentially
at chance at IFR visibilities in heavier snow showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Friday through Sunday)...

An occluded low has lifted across the northern Gulf and over the
Barren Islands through this afternoon. Various locations
experienced heavy snow and reduced visibility through the morning
hours. Cordova and coastal locations of Prince William Sound
quickly warmed to above freezing with snow changing to rain early
on in the day. Other locations did not fare so well. Kodiak Island
had westerly winds gusting to as high as 40 knots, which resulted
in 1/4 mile visibility through the early afternoon hours in
addition to snow accumulations as high as 10 inches or more.
Meanwhile, Western Prince William Sound and the Seward Highway
also experienced moderate to heavy snow with a reported gust at
the Portage Glacier Center of 64 knots, or 74 mph). Webcams during
the morning hours revealed whiteout conditions along the
Richardson Highway through Thompson Pass. So, where are we now?
Conditions have improved considerably for most areas with snow
changing over to a rain/snow mix for the Eastern Kenai Peninsula.
Latest satellite imagery depicts a dry slot working its way
northward into Cook Inlet, which has allowed Homer and Kenai to
finally see an end to their snow. The one area still in the soup
is the city of Kodiak, which continues to see light snow with
southwesterly winds gusting to 30 mph maintaining reduced
visibility at or below one mile.

The current low over the Gulf is quickly tracking to the west and
will move into Southwest later this evening. Unfortunately, a
second and potentially stronger low is forecast to move into
Southcentral on Saturday. This latter low will take a similar
track as today's low with most of the same regions to see another
round of elevated winds and moderate to heavy snow. There
continues to be uncertainty with temperatures, and this is casting
some doubt on precipitation types for Saturday. For now the
expectation is for cold air wrapping around the backside of the
current low to see rain and a rain/snow mix to change back over to
snow sometime tonight. This will set the stage for the arrival of
the low on Saturday to move through the Gulf with moderate to
heavy snow anticipated for the Seward Highway corridor from north
of Seward into Portage. This is also where the heaviest snow is
anticipated. Portage could potentially see 8 to 10 inches of snow
with Turnagain Pass potentially receiving well over a foot. This
will mean difficult travel conditions for much of Saturday into
Saturday night. Locations that carry bigger question marks are
Kodiak Island, which latest hi-res guidance suggest may miss the
bulk of precipitation, as well as Whittier and Thompson Pass,
which should see less snow. Though elevated winds may still result
in blowing snow and reduced visibility for all three regions.

If there is a bright spot to the current forecast, it's that
things should finally quiet down across Southcentral by Sunday.
Models are still advertising some form of a weak low traversing
the norther Gulf through Sunday afternoon. However, this low is
not expected to bring strong winds are meaningful snow to any
forecast areas. Details will need to be resolved this evening and
in a hurry, as the next low will approach Kodiak Island and the
Kenai Peninsula by tomorrow morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A series of storms tonight and tomorrow will bring a pattern
change to the region, with increasing chances for snow and warmer
temperatures over the weekend. The first system is currently
moving through Kamishak Gap, resulting in some elevated winds and
light snow for the greater Bristol Bay area. Snow accumulations
between one and two inches are possible. This system will weaken
and depart into the north Pacific during the day Saturday, keeping
skies partly cloudy with mild temperatures. An additional system
will take a similar track through Kamishak Gap overnight Sunday,
bringing another round of elevated winds and some light snow to
Bristol Bay. A strong low moving from the Western Aleutians into
the Northern Bering will send a front east into the Mainland
Monday morning. Temperatures aloft and a rapid occlusion are
supportive of mostly snow to fall, but strong southerlies and
March solar intensity may allow for some rain to mix in as the
front moves east across the region through Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Conditions will remain fairly steady state through Sunday morning
as northerlies persist over the Alaska Peninsula and eastern
Bering while westerlies and showery activities persists over the
Western and Central Bering/Aleutians. A deepening low pressure
system is expected to move over the Western Aleutians with strong
cold air advection, rapid pressure rises on the backside of
the low, and deep layer of elevated winds underneath a 150 kt jet
streak. As such, a High Wind Watch has been issues for the
Western Aleutians with gusts up to 85 mph possible.

A storm system will move across the western Bering/Aleutians on
Sunday evening into Monday. This storm system will produce
widespread storms and high seas. Conditions will then abate from
southwest to northeast on Monday afternoon. No other significant
weather is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)

The long-term period opens with a Bering Sea front working into
coastal and interior Southwest Alaska providing good chances at
snow. An additional shortwave trough digs southward from the
parent trough in Siberia through the Bering Sea, across the
Aleutian Chain, and into the North Pacific Tuesday afternoon. This
will generate a low pressure system in the central Bering Tuesday
morning that moves quickly eastward to Southwest Tuesday afternoon
bringing widespread precipitation to coastal Southwest as well as
the Alaska Peninsula before working its way to interior Southwest
during the evening. Meanwhile, gusty northerly flow and cold air
advection on the backside of this system ensues for the central
and eastern Aleutian Chain giving the chance at snow showers
through most of the rest of the long-term/Friday morning. A triple
point low then looks to spawn either in the western Gulf or North
Pacific Tuesday evening as the upper trough becomes increasingly
negatively tilted. There is disagreement on how the trough
evolves Tuesday evening. The 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF have a more
negatively tilted trough with storm formation in the vicinity of
Kodiak Island, while the 12z Canadian guidance is not as
negatively tilted and forms the storm further to south in the
North Pacific. Regardless, this system looks to give coastal
Southcentral Alaska another good chance at amplified precipitation
Wednesday and Thursday, while interior Southcentral will still
have precipitation chances, just not quite the chance at heavier
precipitation. Questions also arise for Southcentral at the end of
the long-term period Thursday evening as guidance hints at
another low forming in the Gulf then. However, confidence remains
low on timing, strength, as well positioning of this feature.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory: 171.
		 High Wind Watch: 191.
MARINE...Storm Warning: Northern Gulf of Alaska.
		 Gale Warning: Prince William Sound, Barren Islands,
		 Cook Inlet, Western Gulf of Alaska.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning: Bristol Bay, Eastern Bering Sea.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DAN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CJ
LONG TERM...DAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1144 PM AKDT FRI MAR 17 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0811 PM     HEAVY SNOW       NULL                    61.17N 145.70W
03/17/2023  U24.0 INCH       CHUGACH            AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            DOT REPORTED 2 TO 2 1/2 FEET OF SNOW FELL IN
            THOMPSON PASS.

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1145 PM AKDT FRI MAR 17 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0811 PM     HEAVY SNOW       TONSINA                 61.65N 145.17W
03/17/2023  U10.0 INCH       COPPER RIVER       AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

&&

KC