Storm Warning 41, NWS Anchorage, AK

045 
FZAK51 PAFC 110025
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
325 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-111345-
325 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 972 mb low 60 nm SE of Cold Bay moves into the Kenai Peninsula 
through Sat afternoon. A trough lifts through the Gulf of Alaska 
Sat evening into Sun morning.

$$

PKZ119-111345-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
325 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Near the coast, SE wind 50 kt becoming 
S 20 kt after midnight. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ120-111345-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
325 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ121-111345-
Resurrection Bay-
325 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-111345-
Prince William Sound-
325 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-111345-
Port Valdez-
325 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-111345-
Valdez Narrows-
325 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-111345-
Valdez Arm-
325 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-111345-
Passage Canal-
325 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft 
subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-111345-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
325 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 9 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...W wind 55 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ131-111345-
Barren Islands East-
325 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 11 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 55 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...W wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...E wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-111345-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
325 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 31 ft except 22 ft N of Dangerous
Cape. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
26 ft subsiding to 19 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. N
of Dangerous Cape, N wind 15 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 13 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ136-111345-
Chiniak Bay-
325 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-111345-
Marmot Bay-
325 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 1 ft building to 3 ft after midnight.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-111345-
Shelikof Strait-
325 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain and snow showers.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...W wind 50 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-111345-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
325 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-111345-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
325 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
in ice free waters 8 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight. Freezing 
spray.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft 
in the afternoon. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Snow.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-111345-
Kachemak Bay-
325 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
453 PM AKST Thu Feb 9 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad upper level low is situated over eastern Russia and
Western Alaska with a negatively tilted trough extending out of it
over Southcentral Alaska. The jet stream is running south of the
Aleutians and helping to fuel the strong low that is wrapped up
tightly south of the central Aleutians this afternoon. The front
associated with this low is over the Alaska Peninsula late this
afternoon and moving rapidly to the northeast.

Southwest and Southcentral Alaska are under weak surface high
pressure and this has caused some low level stratus to develop
over the Kuskokwim Delta as well as parts of the Bristol Bay and
Cook Inlet regions.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are still holding together overall for the main low
pressure systems. The main points of emphasis in evaluating them
have to do with the development of a triple point low near Kodiak
as the original low heading through Bristol Bay and inland. The
strength and track of the triple point low will have a bit of an
impact on the weather from Cook Inlet eastward in particular. The
active weather pattern continues into next week on all model
guidance with reasonable agreement on the storm tracks.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...MVFR stratus may be hesitant to clear out through tonight.
Northeast winds should increase a bit Friday morning which, in
combination with the next weather system moving out the more
stable air, should bring VFR conditions for Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Sunday)...

Quiet weather across Southcentral through tonight with a few
lingering flurries this evening from the western Kenai Peninsula
through Anchorage and the Mat Valley.

A strong frontal system will push into the southern Gulf tonight
producing widespread gales with storm force winds developing
across the northern Gulf Friday evening. Initially, Kodiak Island
will be cold enough to support snow and blowing after midnight
with 3 to 6 inches of snow before changing to rain by mid morning
on Friday. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Kodiak
Island due to the snow and blowing snow. As the front moves north
snow will develop along coastal areas and will eventually mix with
or change to rain for areas at sea level by Saturday afternoon.
Strong winds and snow will also develop Friday around Whittier,
Portage valley, and Turnagain Pass which will cause blowing snow
to occur through Friday evening where another Winter Weather
Advisory is in effect for the blowing snow. Otherwise, downsloping
will keep inland areas mainly dry, however, occasional flurries
are possible Friday. North winds will increase across Anchorage
and the Mat Valley Friday afternoon through the overnight hours
with gusts up to 35 mph possible.

On Saturday rain and snow will linger near coastal areas with
onshore flow. Another low pressure system will move into the Gulf
late Saturday into Sunday which could potentially bring another
round of gale force winds. Precipitation will likely continue
across coastal areas, but accumulating snow inland will depend
upon the track of this low. However, there is significant model
differences with the strength, speed and track of this storm so
forecast confidence is low.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Sunday)...

While most of the forecast with the upcoming system remains on
track, some more notable shifts in the forecast have been made for
tonight courtesy of a pesky low stratus deck trapped in a strong
temperature inversion above the surface over most of the Kuskokwim
Delta. This has acted as a barrier to radiational cooling since
last night, resulting in temperatures hovering only a few degrees
below zero at most. While cold wind chills around -30 will remain
possible overnight as northeast winds pick up, wind chills meeting
advisory criteria are no longer anticipated due to the warmer
temperatures in place.

Aside from the warmer than expected temperatures over parts of the
outlook area in the short term, the rest of the forecast for the
upcoming strong frontal system is relatively unchanged from prior
thinking. Strong east to northeast winds will pick up along a
front moving into Bristol Bay between tonight and Friday as
snowfall moves in, resulting in widespread areas of blowing snow
over northwestern portions of Bristol Bay where a Winter Weather
Advisory remains in effect beginning late tonight. While winds
will come down by Friday night, accumulating snowfall may linger
into Saturday as the then stacked and filling low moves up from
the northern Alaska Peninsula into Bristol Bay and as cold air
advection from the northwest wrings out remaining moisture along
the Alaska and Aleutian Ranges. Most of Southwest will dry out on
Sunday as Arctic air continues to spill in from the northwest,
pushing temperatures back to sub-zero levels for much of the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Sunday)...

A storm force front stemming from a low farther south is making
rapid progress into the Bering, with heavy snow changing over to
rain as the boundary passes through the Eastern Aleutians. The low
will enter the southern Bering later tonight, likely still at an
intensity below 960 mb, with storm force winds continuing to the
north across the southern Bering Sea. Storm force winds will be
coincident with light snowfall across the Pribilofs, where
blizzard conditions are expected to begin shortly and persist
through Friday morning. A much colder air mass will begin to
stream down into the Bering and Aleutians as the low begins to
weaken and move up towards Southwest Alaska between Friday and
Saturday, changing any rain or rain snow mix still falling along
the Aleutians back over to all snow from west to east. Northerly
winds will diminish back below gale force by Friday night as well,
but will remain strong enough to combine with the frigid air mass
descending south into the Bering to produce widespread heavy
freezing spray up to to 100 nautical miles or more from the ice
edge through at least Sunday morning. Another weak low will track
east along western and central portions of the Aleutian Chain
between Saturday and Sunday, bringing periods of light snow and
winds in mainly small craft range to the area.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

Active weather continues next week with a series of strong lows
forecast to track across the region. Forecast confidence continues
to be above average as models have been relatively consistent
with the depiction of several strong features. Models are in
better agreement with the handling of a cut-off low which will aid
in bringing colder temperatures to Southwest Alaska. While GFS
has shifted to depict a more consolidated feature, the consensus
has moved it north over the Bering Strait, which suggests that
temperatures may not get quite as cold. However, 850 mb
temperatures as low as -24C are still expected to work in over
Southwest Alaska for Monday. Remnant low pressure in the Gulf of
Alaska will continue to help draw this dense, cold air through
gaps along the coast of the western Gulf of Alaska. These winds
are likely to gust to storm force, with localized areas of
sustained storm force winds. A weak front tracking east from
Southwest Alaska combined with a strong shortwave passing aloft
will likely contribute to light snow for Southcentral Monday
morning. Accumulations inland look to be only a few inches at
most, and are likely to be greatest over the western half of
Southcentral. Gap winds diminish Monday night as the low in the
Gulf weakens. Shower activity decreases along the north Gulf coast
as well, with snow over inland Southcentral tapering off as cold,
dry air filters in on Monday.

At the same time, a strong storm or hurricane force low in the
North Pacific passes south of the Aleutian Islands. The low looks
most likely to track south of the island chain, dipping back south
over the North Pacific as it occludes on Tuesday. However, some
model solutions have suggested potential for the low to track
toward Bristol Bay, but this is not currently a favored solution.
The low pushes its front across the central and eastern Aleutians
early on Monday, bringing easterly winds as strong as storm force.
This also has the potential to bring snowfall to some of the
islands, though recent model solutions are a tad warmer with the
low compared to yesterday. Precipitation moves up along the Alaska
Peninsula into Bristol Bay and over Kodiak Island Monday evening
into Monday night. A weak triple point low then develops in the
Gulf of Alaska as the front pushes to the north Gulf coast by
Tuesday, bringing another round of precipitation there. A potent
shortwave tracking north into the Interior with the front may be
sufficient for much of southern mainland Alaska to see some snow
on Tuesday. Little warm air is expected with this system, but
there is some potential for rain at low elevations along the
immediate coast. Inland locations can expect to see all snow.
Precipitation gradually tapers off for Wednesday as the surface
low weakens and the broader upper-level trough lifts north.

Out west, a deep low near Kamchatka pushes a storm force front
into the western Aleutians late on Tuesday. Along with it comes
a southerly push of warmer air, which is likely to switch
precipitation over to rain as the front sweeps from the western
Aleutians to the eastern Aleutians through Wednesday. Uncertainty
grows by Thursday regarding how quickly the front progresses
eastward and whether it moves in over Southwest Alaska. A triple
point low looks more likely to drive north across the eastern
Aleutians/AKPEN into Southwest Alaska late on Thursday, bringing
warmer temperatures and a slight chance of mixed precipitation by
Friday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning 195.
         Winter Weather Advisory 125 161 171.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 130 139 140 160 179 180 185.
         Storm Warning 119 130 155 170 172 175 179.
         Gale Warning 120 125 131 132 138 139 140 150 160 165
                      171 173 174 176 177 180 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AS
LONG TERM...CQ