Storm Warning 40, NWS Anchorage, AK

089 
FZAK52 PAFC 101219
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
319 AM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-110115-
319 AM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 960 mb low near Nikolski moves along the Aleutian Chain. It
exits into Southwest Alaska near King Salmon at 985 mb by Sat 
morning. A 993 mb low develops 80 nm southwest of Shemya and 
moves to 260 nm southwest of Shemya at 1003 mb by Sun morning. A 
984 mb low 320 nm south of Chignik Sat morning exits into the 
Western Gulf by Sun morning.

$$

PKZ150-110115-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
319 AM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft building to 24 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 33 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt becoming NW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 24 ft
subsiding to 18 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ155-110115-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
319 AM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 37 ft. From the Shumagin Islands E,
seas 20 ft building to 35 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
34 ft subsiding to 25 ft after midnight.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 12 ft in the
afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ160-110115-
Bristol Bay-
319 AM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
in ice free waters 5 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas in ice
free waters 2 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-110115-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
319 AM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming N 30 kt in the afternoon. From
Port Moller E, SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...E wind 40 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ170-110115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
319 AM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft subsiding to 12 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ171-110115-
Unalaska Bay-
319 AM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming NW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft building to 13 ft in the afternoon. Widespread snow and rain 
showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ172-110115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
319 AM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 36 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
25 ft subsiding to 17 ft after midnight.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ173-110115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
319 AM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
28 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ174-110115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
319 AM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt becoming NW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 29
ft subsiding to 23 ft in the afternoon. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ175-110115-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
319 AM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
28 ft subsiding to 22 ft in the afternoon. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...N wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ176-110115-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
319 AM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt becoming N 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
21 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ177-110115-
Adak to Kiska-
319 AM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 24
ft Bering side...16 ft Pac side.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 55 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.MON...N wind 55 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.TUE...E wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ178-110115-
Kiska to Attu-
319 AM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 50 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE...E wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ179-110115-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
319 AM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-110115-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
319 AM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt becoming N 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas in ice
free waters 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6ft. 
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ181-110115-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
319 AM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ185-110115-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
319 AM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Extreme 
freezing spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly 
accumulate on vessels.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Extreme 
freezing spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly 
accumulate on vessels.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Extreme 
freezing spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly 
accumulate on vessels.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.

$$

437 
FZAK52 PAFC 110005
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
305 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-111330-
305 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 972 mb low 60 nm SE of Cold Bay moves into Southwest Alaska 
through Sat morning. A newly developed 996 mb low 120 nm WSW of 
Shemya Fri evening gets absorbed into a 964 mb N Pacific low 400 
nm S of Shemya by Sun afternoon. Its front lifts into the Western 
and Central Aleutians Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-111330-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
305 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 33 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 23 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...W wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ155-111330-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
305 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 32 ft subsiding to 24 ft after midnight.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 12 ft in the
afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ160-111330-
Bristol Bay-
305 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas in ice
free waters 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray near ice edge.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-111330-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
305 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.  
Snow and rain showers.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray 
after midnight.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ170-111330-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
305 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ171-111330-
Unalaska Bay-
305 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 5 ft after
midnight. Freezing spray.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-111330-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
305 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 24 ft subsiding to 16 ft after midnight.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ173-111330-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
305 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ174-111330-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
305 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 12 ft 
after midnight.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ175-111330-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
305 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ176-111330-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
305 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ177-111330-
Adak to Kiska-
305 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 60 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.MON...N wind 55 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.TUE...E wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ178-111330-
Kiska to Attu-
305 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 55 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...N wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE...E wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.

$$

PKZ179-111330-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
305 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-111330-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
305 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Heavy 
freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Heavy 
freezing spray.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ181-111330-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
305 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ185-111330-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
305 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Extreme 
freezing spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly 
accumulate on vessels. Snow showers.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Extreme freezing 
spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly accumulate on
vessels. Snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Extreme 
freezing spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly 
accumulate on vessels. Snow showers.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
601 AM AKST Thu Feb 9 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A negatively tilted trough extending from the Alaska Peninsula
across the Kenai Peninsula and northern Gulf is slowly lifting to
the Copper River Basin. An upper level wave within the trough is
moving north from the Gulf to Southcentral, leading scattered snow
showers mainly along Prince William Sound. The snow is slowly
coming to an end for the low-lying region, but lingering across
the higher elevations. A ridge of high pressure meanwhile is
building from the west, allowing colder temperatures, partial
clearing skies, and drier air to move in over Southcentral. Low
stratus and fog trapped underneath the ridge has developed over
the Susitna Valley to Anchorage Bowl and into the western Kenai
Peninsula. For Southwest Alaska, a small band of snow showers are
moving east across Bristol Bay, while clear skies and strong
radiational cooling elsewhere allowed overnight temperatures to
drop into the single negative digits. Out west, a strong North
Pacific low is tracking near and just south of the Aleutian Chain.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model guidance is in good agreement with the placement and
intensity of synoptic scale features at both the surface and in
the upper levels. The main challenge with the aforementioned
North Pacific low continues to be winds and precipitation type
along the Alaska Peninsula and Aleutians. By the end of the week,
an active weather pattern will get underway as the attendant
front pushes eastward across Southwest and Southcentral Alaska.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Low stratus and fog has formed over Anchorage Bowl and
will persist through early this afternoon with MVFR/IFR
ceiling/visibility. Conditions are expected to improve around 21z
with VFR and light winds for the rest of today.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A mid-level ridge extending from Kodiak Island to the Susitna
Valley this morning continues to keep lingering low-level moisture
in the wake of yesterday's trough over Cook Inlet and the
Anchorage Bowl. The challenge today will be how long these clouds,
and any developing fog and flurries, remain in place prior to the
next weather system moving in from the western Gulf for the
latter half of Friday. The aforementioned ridge is expected to
slow drift eastward over the Kenai Peninsula through around noon
today before an upper-level shortwave moves in from the west,
allowing the ridge axis to move over the northern Gulf. At this
point, colder air advecting over Cook Inlet, along with a stronger
westerly flow, should mix out the antecedent airmass and erode
any linger cloud cover by Friday evening.

Farther east, clouds and flurries also linger across the Copper
River Basin. This is due to a southerly flow and weak moisture
advection across the area due to a trough near the entrance to
Prince William Sound. Again, clouds and flurries should dissipate
later today as the trough weakens as upstream shortwave moves
through the region. With clouds on the decrease tonight,
temperatures should drop below normal across much of Southcentral.
The warmest temperatures will remain along the immediate coast
where offshore winds will remain gusty through Friday evening.

Active weather returns to Kodiak Island for Friday morning as an
occluded front moves to the western Gulf. Snow and blowing snow is
expected for Kodiak City early Friday morning, with up to 5 inches
of snow possible, before temperatures warm with an onshore flow
and the snow changes to rain. This front pushes to the northern
Gulf for late Friday, reaching the Southcentral coast by Saturday
morning. Snow will overspread the the eastern Kenai by Friday
afternoon and Prince William Sound by Friday evening.
Southeasterly gap winds will increase Friday afternoon through
Turnagain Arm, including Portage Valley and parts of Turnagain
Pass. Easterly winds will also be on the increase for Whittier.
Areas of blowing snow area also likely for these locations.

Winds will also increase across the Matanuska Valley by Friday
afternoon in advance of the front. Periods of blowing snow area
possible from Palmer to Wasilla through early Saturday morning.

The front finally lifts onshore Saturday before stalling and
weakening with snow mixing with or changing entirely to rain for
coastal locations from Seward to Cordova. Precipitation lingers
along the coast into Sunday with the potential for some snow to
overspread Cook Inlet and the Mat-Su Valleys late Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Saturday)...

Quiet weather this morning gives way to more active and
potentially hazardous weather by the afternoon. For today, a band
of light snow will continue to move over parts of the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol Bay as it exits towards the Western
Alaska Range. Further west, clouds extending from the Bering Sea
and west towards the Kuskokwim Mountains have kept conditions a
bit warmer for the morning, with air temperatures dipping
remaining in the single digit negatives or higher for most areas.
Colder air temperatures return tonight as skies clear, with a
Wind Chill Advisory in effect as apparent temperatures drops into
the high -30s and low -40s.

For Bristol Bay and south, the main story is a 956 mb low that
will move north towards Adak and begin tracking along the Aleutian
Chain later this morning. Its front pushes across the Alaska
Peninsula by early afternoon, bringing moderate to heavy
precipitation and strong winds. The forecast looks largely on
track, with the potential for some visibility reductions due to
blowing snow over the Alaska Peninsula before snow transitions to
rain. Bigger visibility reductions are expected for Bristol Bay,
with a Winter Weather Advisory in effect from Dillingham and west
due to the potential for visibilities to one-half mile or less in
blowing snow. Overall, about 6-10 inches of steady light snow are
expected from early Friday morning through Saturday morning along
the Kuskokwim Mountains, though total amounts could fluctuate as
we continue to refine the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Saturday)...

The forecast remains largely on track, with a High Wind Warning in
effect for the Central Aleutians and a Blizzard Warning in effect
for the Pribilof Islands as a 956 mb low and its front move along
the Aleutian Chain and Southern Bering. The biggest change with
this forecast package was to quicken the transition from snow to
rain or rain/snow mix for the Central Aleutians. With temperatures
looking a bit warmer than initially expected, blowing snow has
become less of a concern. As for the Blizzard Warning, newer
guidance is keeping precipitation a little further south. While
winds will still remain fairly strong, blowing snow may not be as
bad or last as long for St. Paul Island. Further north near the
sea ice edge, cold air temperatures in conjunction with brisk
winds will lead to heavy freezing spray and extreme heavy freezing
spray from late this afternoon through tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

A progressive pattern will amplify by mid-week, pushing a series
of storm force lows and fronts through the forecast area. Run to
run consistency is above average, with model solutions remaining
similar to yesterday, lending confidence to the long term
forecast. Sunday morning, a low entering the Gulf of Alaska will
push a front to the north Gulf coast, bringing a round of heavy
precipitation. The track of the low will serve to keep much of
the inland areas dry, with little warm air expected to work its
way into the mainland. This will keep most precipitation snow,
though there is a chance of rain at low elevations along the
immediate coast.

Model guidance continues to indicate that a weak front on the
back side of the low will bring light snow to Southwest Alaska,
with some potential to move into Southcentral as early as Sunday
evening. This is one of the most uncertain aspects of the long
term forecast, though snow accumulations appear to be limited to
a few inches at most. Uncertainty stems from the potential for a
deep cut-off low to be centered over Western Alaska on Sunday,
which would aid in providing lift and instability for
precipitation. It would also correspond to much lower
temperatures for Southwest Alaska as well, with the EC and GEM
suggesting 850 mb temperatures as low as -30C in tandem with the
cut-off low. However, the weaker depiction of this feature in GFS
suggests uncertainty in how cold temperatures will get.
Regardless, cold air will help to drive strong winds out of gaps
on the south side of the Alaska Peninsula and along the western
Gulf. These winds are likely to gust to storm force, and in
localized areas storm force winds may be sustained. Gap winds
diminish Monday night as the low in the Gulf weakens. Shower
activity decreases along the north Gulf coast as well, and the
decaying front leaves much of the southern mainland dry by Monday
night.

At the same time, a strong storm force, or potentially hurricane
force, low in the North Pacific passes south of the Aleutian
Islands. The low track has nudged a bit closer to the island chain
with a more northerly model consensus compared to yesterday. Its
front pushes across the central and eastern Aleutians on Monday,
bringing easterly winds as strong as storm force. This also looks
to be another potential significant snowfall event for the
islands, with more cold air in place over the Bering Sea ahead of
the low. Snow moves up along the Alaska Peninsula into Bristol Bay
and over Kodiak Island on Tuesday. There will be some potential
for the low to track into the southern Gulf, allowing its front to
move up along the north Gulf coast bringing another round of
precipitation, with only a limited amount spreading inland. Then,
a strong front off another deep low near the Kamchatka Peninsula
brings a strong southerly push of warmer air late on Tuesday. This
should be enough for precipitation to switch over to rain as the
front sweeps from the western Aleutians to the central Aleutians
through Wednesday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning 195
		 High Wind Warning 187
		 Winter Weather Advisory 125, 161, 171
		 Wind Chill Advisory 155
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning: 129, 130, 140
		 Storm Warning: 130, 170, 172-176, 179, 413, 414
	Gale Warning: 119, 120, 131, 132, 138, 139, 150, 155, 160, 165,
	171, 177, 180, 351-352, 411-412.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KC
LONG TERM...CQ