Storm Warning 4, NWS Anchorage, AK

919 
FZAK62 PAFC 242346
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
246 PM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-251445-
246 PM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 988 mb complex low near 55N 166W moves to 57N 163W at 996 mb 
Wed morning, then moves inland southeast of Togiak Wed evening. A 
strong front moves from the western Aleutians Wed morning to the 
western Alaska coast Thu afternoon. A 1003 mb North Pacific low will
develop along the front Thu morning and move to 51N 173W Thu
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-251445-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
246 PM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...E wind 25 to 40 kt increasing to 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Freezing
spray. Snow.
.THU...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 22 to 30 ft.

$$

PKZ412-251445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
246 PM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.THU...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ413-251445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
246 PM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NE wind up to 20 kt becoming E 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.

$$

PKZ414-251445-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
246 PM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Extreme freezing 
spray at a rate of 4cm per hour or greater may accumulate on vessels 
N of 58N. Snow showers.
.WED...N wind 15 to 25 kt becoming NW up to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 to 9 ft. Extreme freezing spray at a rate of 4cm per hour or 
greater may accumulate on vessels N of 58N during the morning.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind up to 15 kt becoming SE 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 to 8 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.

$$

265 
FZAK62 PAFC 251209
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
309 AM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-260200-
309 AM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 997 mb complex low at 56N 163W moves inland Wed afternoon. A  
front from a Kamchatka low moves eastward across the Bering Sea 
through Fri morning. A 963 mb North Pacific low at 50N 165E Thu 
morning moves to 56N 168E at 977 mb Fri morning.

$$

PKZ411-260200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
309 AM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.THU...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 20 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 23 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 13 to 28 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 28 ft.

$$

PKZ412-260200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
309 AM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.THU...SE wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW 15 to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ413-260200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
309 AM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-260200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
309 AM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 15 to 30 kt becoming NW up to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Extreme freezing spray at a rate of 4cm
per hour or greater may accumulate on vessels N of 58N this morning.
.TONIGHT...W wind up to 15 kt becoming SE 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 to 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

581 
FZAK62 PAFC 252350
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
250 PM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-261415-
250 PM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 978 mb low at 50N 170E moves to 60N 178W at 990 mb Thursday
afternoon. A complex 980 mb Kamchatka low develops at 57N 165E 
Friday morning. Its associated front remains over the Bering 
through Friday afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-261415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
250 PM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.THU...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 18 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 19 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 13 to 28 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 28 ft.

$$

PKZ412-261415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
250 PM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Freezing spray. 
Snow.
.THU...SE wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW 20 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.

$$

PKZ413-261415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
250 PM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ414-261415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
250 PM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt becoming SE 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 to 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.THU...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

870 
FZAK62 PAFC 261204
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
304 AM AKST Thu Jan 26 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-270215-
304 AM AKST Thu Jan 26 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 979 mb low at 55N 174E moves to 59N 175E at 985 mb by Thu
afternoon. A complex 970 mb low develops at 52N 167E on Thu 
afternoon, then moves towards the Kamchatka Peninsula through Sat
morning. A front remains over the Bering Sea through Fri 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-270215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
304 AM AKST Thu Jan 26 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 21 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 18 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt becoming 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ412-270215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
304 AM AKST Thu Jan 26 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ413-270215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
304 AM AKST Thu Jan 26 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt becoming S 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ414-270215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
304 AM AKST Thu Jan 26 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray in
the morning. Snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
524 PM AKST Mon Jan 23 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A low in the eastern Bering Sea is entraining bitterly cold air
from the interior of the state into Southwest Alaska today
bringing in a huge difference in temperatures between Southwest
and Southcentral today. Southwest Alaska is under arctic air with
temperatures remaining below zero over the Kuskokwim Valley and
Delta and single digits for Bristol Bay. Cross the Alaska/Aleutian
Range of mountains and temperatures jump into the 20s to 30s over
most of Southcentral. While this is a big difference, the real
airmass change is along the front extending from the eastern
Bering low and to the east. Temperatures to the south of this
front are in the upper 30s to 40s. This front can be seen on
satellite and moving northeastward over Kodiak and the Gulf of
Alaska. Far to the south of the Alaska Peninsula is a baroclinic
leaf that is where the low on Tuesday night/Wednesday will come
from which will be a major factor in the Southcentral weather.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
While models are in good agreement with each other the next few
days, they all are trending toward a slower and more easterly
progression with the features over Southcentral. Southwest Alaska
is more stable with run-to-run consistency. Of particular note is
the way the models are handling the low east of Kodiak Tuesday
night and moving over Prince William Sound on Wednesday. The
exact track of this low will be key to the precipitation type over
the various parts of the Kenai Peninsula and northward into
Anchorage and the Matanuska valley. This is a difficult situation
to forecast and therefore there may be significant changes to the
forecast between now and Wednesday morning for those areas
mentioned.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...MVFR conditions expected at time this evening then
becoming predominant VFR ceilings as southeast winds move over the
terminal. There is a threat for a freezing rain and snow mix this
evening before these southeast winds move in and warm temperatures
above freezing after midnight with rain. Winds will increase a
little more late Tuesday afternoon as precipitation ends and VFR
conditions prevail.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Thursday)...

An active weather pattern is expected to continue across
Southcentral through the short term forecast. A broad upper-level
trough stretches from the Bering Sea east to Southcentral with
various shortwaves embedded within the flow. These upper waves and
a warm surface front are tracking northward across Southcentral
and progressively bringing warmer air to the area. An increase in
southerly winds with the front will also promote warmer air to
spread into the region. As a result, temperatures are expected to
gradually climb above freezing and transition any snow to a wintry
mix or rain, from south to north. Freezing rain is also not out
of the question since any rain that falls onto cold surfaces could
freeze.

The transition from snow to rain is anticipated this evening into
tonight for the Western Kenai Peninsula northward into Anchorage
and the Matanuska Valley. Overall, accumulations are expected to
be light for these regions. Gusty southeasterly winds will also
begin to pick up this evening, particularity through Turnagain
Arm. The transition from snow to rain is expected to occur late
tonight into early Tuesday morning around Willow, and then Tuesday
afternoon for a mix of rain and snow in the Talkeetna area.
Farther north into the Susitna Valley, snowfall is expected to be
quiet heavy, with the highest snow accumulations over the Denali
State Park Area and moderate accumulations from the Talkeetna
cutoff north and west. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect
for these regions through Tuesday afternoon.

Precipitation continues into mid-week as a Gulf low extends its
front to the north Gulf coast by Wednesday morning. With this
system, a continued stream of warmer air would help keep
temperatures above freezing. Since the last forecast package,
however, model solutions have started to shift the low more to the
east, which would in turn create more precipitation type
headaches as slightly cooler air enters the equation.
Nonetheless, precipitation can be expected to continue for much of
Southcentral through Wednesday due to this low. Various upper
shortwaves will then maintain showery precipitation through the
first half of Thursday before a ridge builds across Southcentral
from the Gulf of Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Wednesday night)...

A ridge of high pressure over the Chukchi Sea and a low in the
Aleutians are currently driving an inverted trough over Southwest
Alaska. This is creating a favorable pressure pattern for strong
winds and persistent snowfall over Southwest Alaska. Looking
forward in the short-term, the trough will move westward out of
Southwest into the Bering overnight tonight, bringing the
strongest of the winds out of the area with it. The Blizzard
Warning that was issued for areas near Bethel, Kipnuk, and the
Kuskokwim Delta will be downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory
for blowing snow and wind chills near -40F. The worst of the
conditions are expected to remain near the Kuskokwim Delta,
communities such as Kipnuk in particular.

Another wave of precipitation will move over the Alaska Peninsula
this evening. King Salmon will see a brief period of freezing
rain and ice pellets mixed with the snowfall in the evening hours.
This will transition to snow and some mixed precipitation before
midnight tonight. The wave will continue pushing northward
reaching the Kuskokwim Delta by early Tuesday morning. This
resurgence of snowfall to the Kuskokwim Delta is not expected to
cause a return to blizzard conditions, however blowing snow and
wind chills as previously mentioned will be present until the
morning Tuesday. Over the course of tonight, Tuesday, and Tuesday
night, King Salmon may see about an inch of new snowfall,
Dillingham 6-8 inches, and 1-3 inches in Bethel.

Offshore flow is expected to weaken Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Lingering snow showers across Southwest Alaska will also diminish
by Wednesday morning. As the trough over Southcentral weakens by
midweek, the pressure field that was promoting the active pattern
will have significantly loosened. However, a front approaching
from the Eastern Bering Sea looks to bring another round of active
weather to Southwest Alaska by Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Wednesday night)...

A broad disturbed pattern persists across the Chain, driven by a
stark thermal boundary between the Eastern Aleutians and
Southwestern mainland Alaska. An associated steep pressure field
is driving gale-force northeasterly winds offshore from Mainland
Alaska, across the ice-edge into the Central Bering and partially
the Pribilofs. These winds have driven the reduced visibilities
due to blowing snow in the Pribilofs and conditions are now
expected to persist this evening and beginning to diminish by
midnight. Snowfall in the Pribilofs will continue until the early
afternoon Tuesday. The southernmost tip of the trough laid across
the Bering will dip into the Central Aleutians, continuing the
precipitation in the area through Tuesday afternoon. This trough
will then shrinkingly advance eastward toward the eastern
Aleutians, maintaining the rain and snow for this region through
Tuesday night.

Wednesday morning, a storm-force front will then move into the
Western Aleutians bringing Southerly winds and a leading band of
snow and mixed precipitation. Following the initial passage of the
front, a transition to rain is possible due to the warmer air
still entrained in the system. Southerly flow is currently
expected to continue following the passage of the front, leading
to mixed/rain lingering showers. The frontal boundary will advance
eastward steadily, reaching Nikolski by Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

An active weather pattern looks to remain in place through the
weekend and into the early part of next week. On Friday, models suggest
a strong upper level ridge will build over the Gulf of Alaska and
southern Mainland. Meanwhile an upper level trough develops over
the far western Bering Sea and western Aleutians. There is growing
confidence that the building ridge over Southcentral will
introduce the potential for a warmup across the southern mainland,
but especially over Southwest Alaska this weekend as a surge of
warm southerly flow persists through most of the weekend.
Currently the 12Z GFS solution is an outlier, as it is the only
model showing the progression of an upper level trough from west
to east over the Alaska Peninsula late Saturday. If verified, this
feature would work to interrupt the warm southerly flow and bring
a brief period of colder air to Southwest. Conversely, the
EC/Canadian solutions do not show this progressive trough, and
instead keep consistent southerly flow in place over the eastern
Aleutians and Southwest Mainland all weekend. This type of setup
would bring a warm, wet, and windy pattern and would also
introduce the possibility of mixed precipitation.

Given these differences, confidence beyond Friday is low.
Typically when a strong upper level ridge sets up, it acts as a
blocking mechanism and steers all incoming troughs around it, so
still thinking the GFS is too quick to break down the ridge.
However, exact placement of the ridge and where the axis sets up
will be a determining factor too, as there could be differences if
the ridge builds slightly farther east. By Monday next week, the
ridge still looks to remain over the Gulf, while farther west, a
North Pacific low lifts northward into the western Bering, sending
a front across the Aleutian Chain and keeping the active weather
pattern in place.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY: 145 155 195.
MARINE...GALE WARNING: 119 131 176-178 185 411 412 414.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING: 179 180 185 412 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CL
LONG TERM...KO