Gale Warning 72, NWS Anchorage, AK

570 
FZAK51 PAFC 241250
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
350 AM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-250130-
350 AM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front lifts northward across the Gulf of Alaska and moves 
inland of the coast through Tue evening. A 996 mb North Pacific 
low 300 nm S of Sitkinak Island Tue afternoon moves to 100 nm 
S of Seward Tue night at 994 mb. This low moves inland near 
Cordova through Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-250130-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
350 AM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt, increasing to 35 kt near the coast 
in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ120-250130-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
350 AM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt, becoming NE 25 kt along 
the coast in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-250130-
Resurrection Bay-
350 AM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable less 
than 10 kt. Gusts to 30 kt early. Seas 4 ft subsiding. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft late. Rain.
.WED...N wind 15 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-250130-
Prince William Sound-
350 AM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 20 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-250130-
Port Valdez-
350 AM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
..THU THROUGH SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-250130-
Valdez Narrows-
350 AM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt shifting to N in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...N wind 20 kt becoming S wind 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-250130-
Valdez Arm-
350 AM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED...N wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-250130-
Passage Canal-
350 AM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-250130-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
350 AM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-250130-
Barren Islands East-
350 AM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming N 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-250130-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
350 AM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming W after midnight. 
Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-250130-
Chiniak Bay-
350 AM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt 
after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-250130-
Marmot Bay-
350 AM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-250130-
Shelikof Strait-
350 AM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind to 15 kt becoming NE 20 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming SW after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ139-250130-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
350 AM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt late. Seas 7 ft 
subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-250130-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
350 AM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas in ice free waters 2 ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-250130-
Kachemak Bay-
350 AM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming Variable 10 kt late. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt 
after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

714 
FZAK51 PAFC 250014
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
314 PM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-251330-
314 PM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front moves inland from the northern Gulf of Alaska for Tuesday
evening. A 994 mb North Pacific low 320 nm south of Sitkinak 
Island Tue afternoon moves to 100 nm south of Seward at 992 mb 
for Wednesday morning. This low moves inland near Cordova at 1000 
mb Wednesday afternoon. A weak surface trough moves from the 
western Gulf Wednesday afternoon to the northern Gulf for Thursday
morning.

$$

PKZ119-251330-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
314 PM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ120-251330-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
314 PM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming NE 30 kt after midnight. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-251330-
Resurrection Bay-
314 PM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft
building to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...N wind 15 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-251330-
Prince William Sound-
314 PM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-251330-
Port Valdez-
314 PM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-251330-
Valdez Narrows-
314 PM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...N wind 20 kt becoming SW wind 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-251330-
Valdez Arm-
314 PM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED...N wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-251330-
Passage Canal-
314 PM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...W wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-251330-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
314 PM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-251330-
Barren Islands East-
314 PM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming N 25 kt after midnight. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-251330-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
314 PM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-251330-
Chiniak Bay-
314 PM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.

$$

PKZ137-251330-
Marmot Bay-
314 PM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-251330-
Shelikof Strait-
314 PM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-251330-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
314 PM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft
building to 9 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-251330-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
314 PM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft building to
5 ft after midnight.
.WED...S wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 2 ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-251330-
Kachemak Bay-
314 PM AKST Tue Jan 24 2023

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

524 
FZAK51 PAFC 251252
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
352 AM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-260215-
352 AM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 994 mb low 120 nm S of Seward moves inland inland near Cordova 
at 1004 mb through Wednesday afternoon and dissipates.

$$

PKZ119-260215-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
352 AM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt late. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-260215-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
352 AM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt early, shifting to SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-260215-
Resurrection Bay-
352 AM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt becoming S wind 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Gusts to 30 kt early. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-260215-
Prince William Sound-
352 AM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt becoming Variable 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-260215-
Port Valdez-
352 AM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
Rain and snow.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-260215-
Valdez Narrows-
352 AM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-260215-
Valdez Arm-
352 AM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-260215-
Passage Canal-
352 AM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming W in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-260215-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
352 AM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Variable wind 15 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray in Kamishak Bay.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-260215-
Barren Islands East-
352 AM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-260215-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
352 AM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-260215-
Chiniak Bay-
352 AM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-260215-
Marmot Bay-
352 AM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-260215-
Shelikof Strait-
352 AM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft 
building to 8 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-260215-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
352 AM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt early, shifting to S 15 kt by late morning 
and increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-260215-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
352 AM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt early, shifting to S 10 kt by late morning 
and increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas in ice free waters 
4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-260215-
Kachemak Bay-
352 AM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft inner bay, 5 ft outer bay.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

431 
FZAK51 PAFC 260012
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
312 PM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-261315-
312 PM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front over the northern Gulf moves inland tonight. A ridge of
high pressure builds over the Gulf and remains in place through
Friday afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-261315-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
312 PM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-261315-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
312 PM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-261315-
Resurrection Bay-
312 PM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-261315-
Prince William Sound-
312 PM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-261315-
Port Valdez-
312 PM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-261315-
Valdez Narrows-
312 PM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-261315-
Valdez Arm-
312 PM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-261315-
Passage Canal-
312 PM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-261315-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
312 PM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-261315-
Barren Islands East-
312 PM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-261315-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
312 PM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-261315-
Chiniak Bay-
312 PM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-261315-
Marmot Bay-
312 PM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-261315-
Shelikof Strait-
312 PM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-261315-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
312 PM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-261315-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
312 PM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft subsiding to 3
ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-261315-
Kachemak Bay-
312 PM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
546 AM AKST Mon Jan 23 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The active pattern remains status-quo as a broad upper trough
stretches from the Bering Sea, down to the North Pacific, and
eastward into the Gulf of Alaska. Meanwhile, an upper ridge sits
over Siberia with an upper low over Kamchatka. Within the broad
upper trough are a number of shortwaves eastward and northeastward
through the North Pacific and Gulf. One such such system, well
south of the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) and Aleutian Chain is
drawing moisture northeastward from the tropical Pacific and into
the Gulf as evident on Water Vapor imagery. Along with this
tropical connection also comes the advection warmer air. Middleton
Island radar reveals steady precipitation over the northern Gulf
stretching over the coast this morning while Kenai radar reveals
light returns over the western Kenai Peninsula and through Cook
Inlet. Anchorage and Soldotna both observe light snow and lower
visibilities while Cordova reports temperatures in the middle to
upper 30s and rain as shortwaves embedded in the trough continue
to advance northward.

Out west, strong northeasterly off-shore flow continues over
southwest Alaska and especially the Kuskokwim Delta. The pressure
gradient between a low over the AKPEN near Cold Bay and higher
pressure inland remains tight. With this setup, blowing snow
continues to be an issue with Bethel and Kipnuk both reporting
very low visibilities and winds gusting close to 45mph. Wind-
chills also continue to be quite low in the Kuskokwim Delta as
well with apparent temperatures close to -50F. A Blizzard Warning
continues to be in effect for the Kuskokwim Delta for the ongoing
ground blizzard conditions.

Meanwhile, the Bering Sea and Aleutians remain unsettled the
front form the low near Cold Bay pivots towards the Pribilof
Islands from the southeast. Saint Paul and Saint George both
report snow with reduced visibilities. Both locations have
northeasterly winds gusting towards 40mph. A Winter Weather
Advisory for blowing snow remains in effect for the Pribilof
Islands to address this. Dutch Harbor remains under the influence
of the North Pacific low over the far eastern Chain/far southern
AKPEN; they observe rain and light winds. The central and western
Aleutian Chain is between a flat and low amplitude ridge to the
west of Shemya and the low pressure over the southern AKPEN with
relatively benign weather. Gusty northwesterly winds near gale-
force are currently observed at Shemya along with snow showers.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model guidance is in reasonably good agreement with the larger
synoptic-scale features throughout the short-term period. All
guidance continues the generally active weather pattern throughout
the entire domain. There are some mesoscale differences in the
exact track and timing of shortwaves traversing through the broad
southwesterly to southerly flow ahead of a positively tilted
trough which moves slowly eastward from the Bering toward the Gulf
of Alaska through Wednesday night. Most 00z global guidance has
light snow developing across Cook Inlet Monday morning while hi-
res guidance does not have precipitation coming into Cook Inlet
and into Anchorage until late morning or even early afternoon. One
thing to keep an eye on is exactly when the wind direction changes
to south or southeast in the Anchorage region as this will impact
when precipitation-type changes from frozen to liquid. As of now,
most guidance has this change from light northerly winds to
southerly/southeasterly winds occurring sometime Monday evening
into the overnight. A similar setup occurs for Wednesday but there
is still uncertainty with precipitation-type transitions for the
eastern domain due to warm air intrusions and overall areal
extent of precipitation. Another key feature that all global
guidance is picking up on is an eastward moving gale to even
storm-force front in association with a low near Kamchatka. This
looks to potentially impact the western and Central Aleutians
through Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Light snow continues this morning with MVFR conditions
favorable with periodic IFR conditions possible in steadier snow.
The atmospheric column will continue to warm as southerly flow
increases through the day. A period of wintry mix, including
freezing rain is possible late this morning into the afternoon as
warmer air continues to stream northward. Temperatures are then
expected to warm enough to change precipitation from mix to rain
sometime late this afternoon into the early evening hours. There
is still some uncertainty in the timing of precipitation-type
transitions. Aiding with the uncertainty is the introduction of
the Turnagain Arm wind. Most hi-res guidance has the wind bending
over the terminal between late this afternoon and early evening
and continuing through the TAF period; this will aid further in
warming of temperatures. However, if this wind is delayed, it is
possible that wintry mix could hold on and linger a little longer.
Precipitation looks to taper off towards the end of the TAF
period as stronger southeast flow in the middle levels of the
atmosphere looks to keep most precipitation out of the terminal.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A surface low is moving near Prince William Sound with an
additional weak cyclonic circulation over the Kenai Peninsula this
morning on satellite. Weak bands of snowfall associated with this
are moving into the Soldotna area and northward into Anchorage
this morning. Precipitation near Whittier and Cordova is reporting
rain. Valdez and Glennallen are seeing snow.

An active pattern is expected through a least the first half of
this week. Successive waves lifting north into Southcentral will
bring additional warm air and the potential for precipitation to
become a wintry mix and even rain. The potential for freezing rain
cannot be ruled out amd any rain that falls onto cold surfaces
could may freeze. The transition looks to be possible this
afternoon for the Kenai Peninsula northward into Anchorage and the
Matanuska Valley. There is some uncertainty that remains in the
locations that would remain a little more sheltered from the
southerly winds, and thus warm air that initially pushes through.
By Tuesday morning, most of the aforementioned locations will have
transitioned to rain. Overall accumulations are expected to be
light. Deeper warmth up Cook Inlet, could cause locations up to
Talkeetna to become rain or rain/snow mix. This up inlet flow will
help to enhance precipitation along terrain into the Susitna
Valley where 8 to 20 inches of snow is possible along the Parks
Highway near Denali State Park and Broad Pass. Further east,
Valdez could also see a transition to rain later this afternoon or
evening. Warm air continuing to usher inland through midweek may
even have areas of the Copper River Basin seeing a mix with
rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Wednesday night)...

A strong surface high pressure centered over the Chukchi Sea in
tandem with an area of low pressure along the Aleutian Islands
continue to drive offshore winds across Southwest Alaska. Ground
blizzard conditions are beginning to show some signs of easing
this morning, but periods of quarter mile visibility are expected
to continue along the Kuskokwim Delta coast through at least this
afternoon. Winds will slowly diminish today, before more quickly
weakening by this evening. This should allow much of the blowing
snow to come to an end. Until then, wind chill values will
also continue to drop as low as -50F for the interior Kuskokwim
Delta.

Meanwhile, a weakening disturbance crossing the southern tip of
the Alaska Peninsula will push a front up the peninsula and into
the Bristol Bay region today. Along the AKPEN, from Pilot Point to
south of King Salmon, mixed precipitation is possible during the
daytime hours today as warm air aloft rides over cold northerly
flow at the surface. By this afternoon, light snow is the expected
precipitation type with the warmer air moderating as it pushes
further north. The snow will spread into the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley this evening and persist across the area through Tuesday
morning. By that point, the front shifts further north and west,
over the Kuskokwim Delta where light snow will combine with
diminishing (but still around 25 mph) winds creating the potential
for further low visibilities below one mile. The front lingers
over the Kuskokwim Delta into Wednesday morning as it gradually
weakens.

Broadly speaking, snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are
expected through Wednesday morning. Snow amounts have decreased
slightly with the front now likely to cover more area over
Southwest Alaska, rather than stalling over any particular spot.
More snow may be possible Alaska Range Tuesday night with a low
tracking into the western Gulf of Alaska, potentially bringing
another round of snow to the area. Otherwise, light snow continues
across Southwest Alaska into Wednesday night as the trough aloft
reorients and begins to push the weakening front back to the east.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Wednesday night)...

Gale-force northeasterlies continue across the Bering Sea north of
the Pribilof Islands, with extreme freezing spray expected along
portions of the ice edge. A stalled front will continue to bring
light snow across much of the southern Bering Sea. The Pribilof
Islands will continue to see potential for blowing snow, where an
advisory remains in effect, especially as snow intensity increases
today with the low center skirting the area. For the Aleutians, a
series of weak disturbances rotating as part of a complex low
will bring periods of rain to Unalaska through Cold Bay into
Tuesday. By Wednesday morning, a storm-force front pushes into the
western Aleutians, bringing a quick round of heavy rain through
Wednesday. As the front pushes to the central Bering/Aleutians,
cold, northerly flow begins to reverse to warm and southerly
across much of the Bering Sea by Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

Decent model agreement in the early extended period quickly
deteriorates by next weekend. As such, forecast confidence
Thursday and Friday remain mild, however by Saturday and Sunday
low confidence is a resultant of strong model disagreement. The
extended forecast period begins Thursday morning as a weakening
low and front in Southcentral lifts out of the region by Thursday
afternoon. A ridge of high pressure then begins to build over the
central Gulf of Alaska providing a break in active weather for
Southcentral Friday. Out west, lingering showers in Southwest
Thursday will diminish by the afternoon. In the Bering a broad
front advances steadily eastward providing consistent
precipitation as it goes, reaching the Alaska Peninsula by
Thursday evening.

Features discussed thus far has exhibited good model agreement.
However, by Friday afternoon significant discrepancies arise
between the deterministic model runs. Namely, the 12Z Euro model
keeps the axis of the trough positively tilted as it makes it to
the Alaska Peninsula. Then by Saturday morning, the Euro has the
ridge blocking the front from advancing further eastward, then
ejects the boundary through Southwest Alaska into the Interior
Alaska through Saturday afternoon and maintaining a benign pattern
across Southern Alaska with a slight trough lingering in the
Bering Sunday. The 12Z GFS solution is quite different, showing
the front advancing up the Alaska Peninsula Saturday morning, and
pushing the ridge out to the east. This lack of a blocking ridge
in the GFS solution then suggests a series of troughs and frontal
passages throughout Southern Alaska next weekend.

While these solutions are advertising very different outcomes by
the weekend, experience suggests that the GFS rapidly breaking
down the ridge is a bit too hasty, and we typically see a slower
deterioration of ridges in this region. However, details will
become more clear as we approach the time in contention. Regarding
this development, and as always, stay up to date with our latest
forecast.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning: 155.
         Winter Weather Advisory: 145, 195.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning: 160, 179, 180, 185, 412, 414.
         Gale Warning: 176, 177, 185, 352, 411, 412, 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DAN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...VR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CQ
LONG TERM...CL