Storm Warning 23, NWS Anchorage, AK

417 
FZAK62 PAFC 151310
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
410 AM AKST Wed Feb 15 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-160300-
410 AM AKST Wed Feb 15 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 957 mb Kamchatka low moves to 55N 173E at 972 mb for Thursday 
moring and remains nearly stationary through Friday morning. Its 
front tracks east across the Bering, reaching the Alaska Peninsula
by Wednesday afternoon. A 987 mb North Pacific low on Thursday 
morning moves to 54N 173W at 972 mb by Thursday afternoon then 
moves inland and dissipates by Friday morning.

$$

PKZ411-160300-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
410 AM AKST Wed Feb 15 2023

...STORM WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 to 50 kt becoming S 30 to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 to 25 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the morning N of 56N. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 27 ft. Snow showers.
.THU...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-160300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
410 AM AKST Wed Feb 15 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Freezing spray N of 57N.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 12 to 19
ft. Snow and rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-160300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
410 AM AKST Wed Feb 15 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 to 45 kt becoming SW 25 to 35 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Heavy freezing spray N of 55N in the
morning. Snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-160300-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
410 AM AKST Wed Feb 15 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray N
of 57N. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray near ice edge. Snow.
.THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt becoming E 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
612 AM AKST Tue Feb 14 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An active pattern persists in Southern Alaska and the Bering as a
low in the Eastern Aleutians is driving a frontal boundary
through Southwest Alaska into Southcentral. As the low advances
eastward south of the Chain it will enter the Southern Gulf of
Alaska by tonight. The front will push into the Greater Bristol
Bay later this morning, as well as Kodiak Island throughout the
early morning. The front will progress northward, providing
Southcentral with another light snowfall event, with a
concentration near the Southeastern Kenai Peninsula and the Prince
William Sound. This front will weaken and move out of the region
by the end of tonight. Out west this morning, a new frontal
boundary has entered the Western Aleutians, bringing Storm-force
winds and Hurricane- force gusts. These winds The core of these
winds is expected to spread eastward, weakening slightly through
this afternoon when they will begin to swing up into the Western
Bering Sea. The band of precipitation however will continue to
push eastward, reaching Unalaska and the Pribilofs by Wednesday
morning, and Southwest Alaska by late Wednesday night. Remnants of
this frontal boundary may make it to Southcentral by early
Thursday afternoon, advertising the possibility for another weak
round of snowfall.

The active pattern continues for the tail-end of the work week
with yet another low pressure system and frontal boundary set to
enter the Bering near the Western/Central Aleutians. This system
appears to bring another round of precipitation across the Chain
Thursday. This system appears to reach Southwest Alaska by Friday
morning, and Southcentral Alaska by Friday afternoon. Time will
reveal details on the progression of this system of lows and
fronts, however it is apparent that Southern Alaska is in a
prolonged repetitious active pattern.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Deterministic models are in good agreement in the through the
majority of this period, with large synoptic features dominating
the current weather pattern. Forecast confidence is strong. Some
minor discrepancies regarding the speed at which the front tracks
across the Aleutians Wednesday morning and beyond, namely the 06Z
NAM is slightly quicker at this time. Additionally, exact
placement of the precipitation core on the frontal boundary is in
slight disagreement, with the 06Z GFS and Canadian bringing more
precipitation to the Pribs Wednesday afternoon than the NAM.
However, impacts of these discrepancies appears minimal, leading
to strong forecast confidence.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Predominantly VFR conditions and light winds will persist.
Snowfall early this morning causing periods of IFR vis will break
up by this afternoon with the occasional return of light snow
showers possible through Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An occluded front is moving through the Gulf this morning with
snow ahead of the front increasing around Southcentral.
Southeasterly flow will increase winds for this afternoon. Peak
snowfall this morning is beginning to gradually lighten at Kodiak.
Once winds become more westerly Kodiak will start to downslope.
This should coincide with warming temperatures for this afternoon.
A low will develop near Kodiak Island later today and is expected
to shift eastward and keep the weather unsettled across the
region. There is some uncertainty with the location of the low
center and the strength of this low, but it appears that it will
generally be located in the northern Gulf near Prince William
Sound. This will keep higher chances for precipitation around
Prince William Sound for the next few days. There is a chance on
Wednesday for light snow to form along the Kenai mountains and the
Chugach for the Anchorage area. Accumulations over the next
couple days are expected to be light for many lowland locations.
The highest snow expected will remain over the mountains and
higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Friday)...

A shortwave upper-level ridge tracks northeastward away from the
Southwest Mainland while a trough extending from a North Pacific
low lifts across the Alaska Peninsula and into the Bristol Bay
area. The front will gradually weaken during the day today as the
low dives southeastward into the North Pacific. Precipitation is
expected to linger across the Alaska Peninsula, Bristol Bay area,
and Lower Kuskokwim Valley. By Wednesday morning, an upper-level
Bering ridge will build to the east across Southwest Alaska and
taper off precipitation from west to east. Clearing skies and
drier conditions will prevail for the remainder of Wednesday as
the next system approaches from the west. A front is expected to
reach the Southwest coast early Thursday morning, returning
elevated winds and precipitation to the Alaska Peninsula and
Southwest Mainland. The front looks to degrade quite quickly on
Thursday as it lifts eastward across the Mainland. A brief break in
precipitation Thursday afternoon and evening will come to an end
by Thursday night and early Friday morning as yet another front
approaches the region from the Bering. This front is expected to
lift northeastward across the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest
Mainland for Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 to 3: Today
through Friday)...

A North Pacific low continues to skirt along the southern side of
the Aleutian Chain this morning while its front extends across the
Pribilof Islands and Eastern Bering. The front looks to quickly
degrade today as it tracks towards Southwest Alaska and the
associated low dives south into the North Pacific. Snowfall and
gusty northeasterly winds for the Pribilof Islands will diminish
this morning. A transient ridge of high pressure builds behind the
aforementioned system. Farther to the west, a large low pressure
system currently near the Kamchatka Peninsula is expected to
extend its front across the Western Aleutians by this afternoon.
With the front, snowfall and strong easterly winds are expected to
promote blowing snow and reduced visibility for the Western
Aleutians from late this morning through this evening. The front
will continue pushing across the remainder of the Bering and
Aleutians on Wednesday and Thursday before reaching Southwest
Alaska on Thursday morning. As the front passes over the Pribilof
Islands on Wednesday, it is expected to create another round of
blizzard conditions from Wednesday morning into Wednesday
afternoon. Active weather looks to largely continue on Thursday
and Friday as another North Pacific low is advertised to track
across the Central Aleutians and Bering.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

At the beginning of the forecast period, the jet stream looks
like it will move from the northern Pacific and cross near the
eastern Aleutians and northeast towards the southern mainland and
northern Gulf of Alaska. This will drive a low pressure system
into the northern Bering on Friday which could potentially bring
strong winds along the Kuskokwim Delta as well as blowing snow
with possible blizzard conditions. The occluded front with this
low will impact much of the southern mainland with snow on Friday
and Saturday. There is some model differences with this system,
especially with surface winds, however, it looks like there is a
good chance of snow across Southwest and Southcentral Alaska. As
we head into Sunday and Monday there is a bit more model
disagreement, but the trend is for continued southwesterly flow
across the southern mainland with shortwaves bringing chances of
snow. Otherwise, there is no indication of any strong systems with
a more amplified pattern developing by Monday with a ridge
building over the Bering Sea and Aleutians with deepening lows/
troughs over the northwest Pacific and Gulf of Alaska.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning 191 195.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 130 138 139 140 150 160
									  165 179 185 411 412 413
									  414
		 Storm Warning 177 178 411
		 Gale Warning 119 130 131 138 139 170 172 173 174 175
					  176 179 185 412 413 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...VR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AF
LONG TERM...RC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
234 PM AKST TUE FEB 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0853 PM     BLIZZARD         SAINT PAUL ASOS         57.17N 170.22W
02/13/2023                   ALEUTIANS WEST     AK   ASOS

            BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OCCURRED FROM 1:10 PM
            THROUGH 8:53 PM ON FEB 13. SUSTAINED WINDS
            PEAKED AT 45 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 52 MPH.
            WIND SENSORS WERE DOWN BETWEEN 7:50 PM AND
            9:45 PM.

0200 AM     BLIZZARD         SAINT GEORGE ASOS       56.58N 169.66W
02/14/2023                   ALEUTIANS WEST     AK   AWOS

            BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OCCURRED FROM 9:35 AM
            THROUGH 7:20 PM ON FEB 13. VISIBILITY
            REMAINED BETWEEN 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE UNTIL FEB
            14 2:00 AM. WINDS PEAKED BETWEEN
            APPROXIMATELY 3 PM TO 6 PM, WITH SUSTAINED
            WINDS UP TO 56 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 63 MPH.

&&