Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2023

Gale Warning 96, NWS Anchorage, AK

February 15, 2023

NWS Anchorage, AK issued this gale warning at Feb 15, 2023, 4:10 AM AKST. It was in force for 48 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 15, 2023, 4:10 AM AKST (13:10 UTC)
Expired
Feb 17, 2023, 3:58 AM AKST
In force
48 hr
Issued by
NWS Anchorage, AK

The text

As transmitted.

417 
FZAK62 PAFC 151310
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
410 AM AKST Wed Feb 15 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-160300-
410 AM AKST Wed Feb 15 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 957 mb Kamchatka low moves to 55N 173E at 972 mb for Thursday 
moring and remains nearly stationary through Friday morning. Its 
front tracks east across the Bering, reaching the Alaska Peninsula
by Wednesday afternoon. A 987 mb North Pacific low on Thursday 
morning moves to 54N 173W at 972 mb by Thursday afternoon then 
moves inland and dissipates by Friday morning.

$$

PKZ411-160300-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
410 AM AKST Wed Feb 15 2023

...STORM WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 to 50 kt becoming S 30 to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 to 25 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the morning N of 56N. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 27 ft. Snow showers.
.THU...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-160300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
410 AM AKST Wed Feb 15 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Freezing spray N of 57N.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 12 to 19
ft. Snow and rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-160300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
410 AM AKST Wed Feb 15 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 to 45 kt becoming SW 25 to 35 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Heavy freezing spray N of 55N in the
morning. Snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-160300-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
410 AM AKST Wed Feb 15 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray N
of 57N. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray near ice edge. Snow.
.THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt becoming E 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$
4 follow-up statements
670 
FZAK62 PAFC 160036
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
336 PM AKST Wed Feb 15 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-161415-
336 PM AKST Wed Feb 15 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 952 mb low at 53N 168E moves to 55N 171E at 960 mb Thursday
afternoon. The low remains nearly stationary and weakens to 
976 mb Friday afternoon. A second 975 mb low forms at 56N 170W
Thursday afternoon and moves to 60N 166W at 970 mb Thursday 
night. The low then moves inland Friday afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-161415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
336 PM AKST Wed Feb 15 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 26 ft.
Snow showers and rain showers.
.THU...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft.
Snow showers and rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ412-161415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
336 PM AKST Wed Feb 15 2023

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt becoming 10 to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 11 to 18 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ413-161415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
336 PM AKST Wed Feb 15 2023

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 to 25 kt becoming SW 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ414-161415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
336 PM AKST Wed Feb 15 2023

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray N of 57N in the
evening. Snow.
.THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 20 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$
835 
FZAK62 PAFC 161256
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
356 AM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-170200-
356 AM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 952 mb low at 53N 168E moves to 55N 171E at 960 mb Thursday
afternoon. The low remains nearly stationary and weakens to 
976 mb Friday afternoon. A second 980 mb low forms at 56N 170W 
Thursday afternoon and moves to 60N 166W at 970 mb Thursday night.
The low then moves inland though early Saturday morning.

$$

PKZ411-170200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
356 AM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 21 ft. Snow showers and
rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft. Snow showers and
rain showers.
.FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ412-170200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
356 AM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

.TODAY...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ413-170200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
356 AM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ414-170200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
356 AM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind up to 20 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 to 10 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Snow with rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$
014 
FZAK62 PAFC 170005
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-171445-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 963 mb low near 55N 173E moves to 58N 176E at 987 mb Sat 
afternoon. A 977 mb low near 56N 170W moves to 60N 165W at 974 mb 
Thu night and then moves inland Fri morning. A 980 mb low at 56N 
165W Fri night moves to 58N 162W at 985 mb Sat morning.

$$

PKZ411-171445-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ412-171445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 19 to 25 ft.

$$

PKZ413-171445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ414-171445-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Snow.
.FRI...SW wind 25 to 40 kt becoming S 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Snow showers and
rain showers.
.SAT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$
002 
FZAK62 PAFC 171258
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
358 AM AKST Fri Feb 17 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-180230-
358 AM AKST Fri Feb 17 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 980 mb low at 57N 176E remains nearly stationary through Sunday
morning. A 980 mb low at 56N 165W Friday night moves to 58N 162W 
at 985 mb Saturday morning. The low then moves inland Saturday 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-180230-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
358 AM AKST Fri Feb 17 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft.

$$

PKZ412-180230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
358 AM AKST Fri Feb 17 2023

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 21 to 36 ft.

$$

PKZ413-180230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
358 AM AKST Fri Feb 17 2023

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Snow and rain 
showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 32 ft.

$$

PKZ414-180230-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
358 AM AKST Fri Feb 17 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 to 40 kt becoming S 15 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Snow showers and
rain showers.
.SAT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Feb 14, 4:56 PM AKST, 11 hours 14 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 14, 4:56 PM AKST, 11 hours 14 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
456 PM AKST Tue Feb 14 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The air mass RGB satellite shows the upper level pattern quite
well this afternoon. Overall the pattern is highly amplified with
a longwave trough centered over the Bering Strait region and a
secondary center within moving from Southwest Alaska into
Southcentral Alaska. There are two plumes of sub-tropical moisture aloft.
The first is sliding eastward toward the Panhandle and was the
fuel for active weather the last two days. The second is spreading
over the western and central Aleutians, associated with a visually
spectacular low pressure system south of the Kamchatka Peninsula.
The low itself was analyzed this morning at 932 mb. The system is
so large that the front extends eastward over the western/central
Aleutians, and will be the focus for active weather for not only
the Bering Sea and Aleutians today and tomorrow, but Southcentral
later in the week.

Currently, a front is moving onto the north Gulf coast bringing
snow from Cordova and Valdez through Whittier. Inland locations
are seeing far less snow. Behind that system, arctic air is
filtering through the Southwest Mainland. Out west, the front is
bringing high winds, snow, and blowing snow to the western
Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are handling the weakening features around southern Alaska
quite will with good agreement for the next 48 hours. However,
further west is a different story. As the Kamchatka low is strong
and large, guidance handles that quite well, however, a new
disturbance will develop along the front in the northern Pacific.
There are mainly placement differences for when the system enters
the central and eastern Bering Sea. Timing and strength are well
agreed upon. The forecast for late week is more uncertain because
of the differences but it does look like there is good agreement
in development of a stronger distinct low center in the vicinity
of the Pribilofs. The GFS is currently the model of choice as it
is the middle ground solution, but also agrees with ensemble mean
guidance across ECMWF/GEM/GEFS platforms.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through
Wednesday morning. Chances for light snow increase around mid-day
Wednesday morning with ceilings potentially in the MVFR range but
more than likely stay VFR with flurries.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Friday)...

A low near Kamishak Bay this evening will track south of the Kenai
Peninsula as it pushes its occluded front to the north Gulf coast
tonight. Winds are currently at their peak through Prince William
Sound as the front approaches the coast. As the front moves inland
this evening, winds and precipitation will diminish in intensity.
Light snow showers will linger with weak onshore flow in eastern
Prince William Sound into Wednesday, while a shortwave on the back
side of the main upper trough will keep light snow going over
parts of the western Kenai Peninsula, where 2 to 4 inches of snow
may accumulate between Kenai and Homer. Cold advection coming in
from the west on Wednesday will also contribute to continued light
snow along the Kenai Mountains and Chugach Front Range, including
the Anchorage area. This may produce accumulations up to an inch,
with cloudy skies remaining in place around Cook Inlet.

While snow will taper off for a relatively quiet and dry
Wednesday night, it returns Thursday with a strong shortwave
trough tracking west to east across the state. South to
southwesterly flow will accompany this feature, which will favor
the south and west side of mountain ranges. Lower elevations along
the Talkeetna Mountains and Chugach Front Range, including
Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valleys can expect around another inch of
snow accumulation as a result. Thursday night, a strong low in
the eastern Bering Sea pushes its front into the western Gulf,
where Kodiak looks to be warm enough to see only rain with this
system. As the front moves into the northern Gulf, a colder air
mass from the west cuts off the majority of the stream of warmer
air moving up with the front. As the front reaches the north Gulf
coast, this will keep precipitation as snow for much of
Southcentral, with the potential exception of low elevations
along the immediate coast. Several inches of snow will be possible
over the western half of Southcentral on Friday, as most models
are indicating a weaker cross-barrier flow component in the low
levels (compared to the front this evening), with relatively
moist southwesterly flow in the mid-levels, which may limit the
typical dry downslope hole. However, there is still some
uncertainty with the progression of the front and the development
of a triple point low, which will have significant influence on
the low-level flow and resultant snow totals. Stay tuned for
further refinements to the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Friday)...

A short break in the relatively active pattern is set to begin
overnight into Wednesday as the remnants of the low and front that
moved into the region yesterday shifts from near the northern
Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay into the northern Gulf. Another
shot of cold, Arctic air will move in from the northwest as the
low departs and skies continue to clear from west to east as a
shortwave ridge axis moves into place from the Bering. This will
facilitate one more round of frigidly cold lows once again
tonight, namely across the Y-K Delta, where lows will once again
fall to between -10 and -20 Fahrenheit.

The break in the pattern will be quite short, with the next system
moving onto our doorstep by Wednesday afternoon in the form of a
fast moving but rapidly decaying front entering from the eastern
Bering Sea. This will give a quick-hitting round of snow to the
region, progressing swiftly across from west to east from
Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Most locations will not
see more than 1 to 2 inches of new snow accumulation due to the
fast moving and weakening nature of this next frontal system.

A much more potent low will begin to have more notable effects on
sensible conditions late on Thursday into Friday as it winds up
to storm force out over the eastern Bering and pushes a more
formidable front into the Southwest coast. Multiple impacts
from this low and front will be possible, ranging from snow,
blowing snow and strong onshore winds developing as the entire low
shifts towards the Y-K Delta on Friday. There remains a fair
amount of uncertainty regarding the track and timing of this next
low, so expect further updates to the forecast as details for this
next potentially much more impactful system become better
refined.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 to 3: Today
through Friday)...

Whiteout conditions have begun this afternoon across the western
Aleutians as a storm force front accompanied by heavy falling and
blowing snow roars towards the southwest Bering while its parent
Hurricane force low (the one that was analyzed earlier today at
932 mb) is south of Kamchatka. This front will make very quick
progress northeast as it begins to weaken to gale force on
Wednesday. Snow and perhaps some blowing snow will progress out
ahead of the front as it transits the Aleutian Chain, but warmer
air behind the front should change snow over to rain fairly soon
after precipitation onset for any given location from Adak east,
limiting the window for accumulating snowfall. Meanwhile, colder
temperatures will hang on for longer up towards the Pribilofs,
allowing for another brief round of blizzard conditions to develop
as southeast winds and snowfall begin tomorrow morning.
Fortunately, this period of near whiteout conditions will be
fairly short, with the front moving past by the late afternoon and
ending falling/blowing snow. Out to the west, the parent low will
slow down and stall out west of Attu as it begins to slowly fill,
but a core of southerly storm force winds will likely continue to
impact the far western Aleutians through Wednesday.

By Thursday, a potent shortwave trough will move into the central
Aleutians from the North Pacific and begin to develop into a
rapidly deepening, closed low as it enters the central/eastern
Bering and pivots around the still stalled and weakening low
farther west. Uncertainty for the exact strength, progression and
timing of this low remains higher at this time, but there is a
good signal that this low will once again produce at least a
storm force wind field as it deepens and lifts northeast. Very
strong and gusty winds will be possible across the central and
eastern Aleutians south of the deepening low from Thursday night
into Friday, depending again on where the low tracks and how
quickly it deepens. There will also be yet another concern for
snow and blowing snow developing closer to the low's center up
towards the Pribilofs, again depending on the low's track and how
much low level temperatures warm up as the low moves in. Stay
tuned for updates on this next system in the very active pattern
continuing across the Bering through the end of the week.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

The key features of the long term include a building upper level
ridge over the Gulf on Saturday with a broad upper level trough
over the northern Bering. Initially for the beginning of the
period, the jet stream remains south of the Aleutians and briefly
traverses the southern mainland before shifting south over the
Gulf on Sunday. Nonetheless, a mostly active pattern will continue
into early next week as several North Pacific lows lift northward
into the Bering and the Gulf.

By Saturday night, a fast-moving North Pacific low remains south
of the Aleutians and arrives over the Alaska Peninsula. This low
then tracks northeastward into the Gulf, bringing the potential
for precipitation for the southern mainland - from the Alaska
Peninsula eastward to Prince William Sound coast. Depending on the
position of this low as it reaches the Gulf, precipitation may
spread farther northward into the Susitna Valley and Copper River
Basin.

Moving into Sunday, scattered showers look to persist across the
Bering and Southwestern coast, however both the GFS and EC
advertise a building an upper level ridge over the Bering early
Monday morning. Meanwhile a potent low arrives over the western
Aleutians and is quickly driven into the northern Bering by Monday
night. If this setup pans out and the ridge strengthens as
currently advertised, a highly amplified pattern will take shape
for Tuesday as multiple North Pacific lows are steered into the
Bering. Meanwhile much of the mainland may see calmer (though
likely colder) conditions as offshore flow prevails through late
Tuesday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning 195.
		 Winter Storm Warning 191.
MARINE...Gale 119 130 170 172-176 179 185.
		 Storm 177 178.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray 130 138 150 160 165 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CQ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AS
LONG TERM...KO

The office that day

Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 14, 3:13 PM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC13 hr
Feb 14, 3:31 PM AKSTStorm WarningAFC13 hr
Feb 15, 4:10 AM AKSTGale WarningAFC48 hr
Feb 15, 4:45 AM AKSTGale WarningAFC47 hr
Feb 15, 4:45 AM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC23 hr
Feb 15, 4:45 AM AKSTHeavy Freezing Spray WarningAFC23 hr

Nearby

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2023Every gale warning in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.