Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2023
Gale Warning 96, NWS Anchorage, AK
NWS Anchorage, AK issued this gale warning at Feb 15, 2023, 4:10 AM AKST. It was in force for 48 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 15, 2023, 4:10 AM AKST (13:10 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 17, 2023, 3:58 AM AKST
- In force
- 48 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Anchorage, AK
The text
As transmitted.
417 FZAK62 PAFC 151310 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 410 AM AKST Wed Feb 15 2023 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-160300- 410 AM AKST Wed Feb 15 2023 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 957 mb Kamchatka low moves to 55N 173E at 972 mb for Thursday moring and remains nearly stationary through Friday morning. Its front tracks east across the Bering, reaching the Alaska Peninsula by Wednesday afternoon. A 987 mb North Pacific low on Thursday morning moves to 54N 173W at 972 mb by Thursday afternoon then moves inland and dissipates by Friday morning. $$ PKZ411-160300- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 410 AM AKST Wed Feb 15 2023 ...STORM WARNING TODAY... ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...E wind 35 to 50 kt becoming S 30 to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 to 25 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the morning N of 56N. Snow showers. .TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 27 ft. Snow showers. .THU...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Snow showers. .THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. .FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. .SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. $$ PKZ412-160300- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 410 AM AKST Wed Feb 15 2023 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow. .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Freezing spray N of 57N. .THU...SE wind 20 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 12 to 19 ft. Snow and rain. .THU NIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. .FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. .SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. $$ PKZ413-160300- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 410 AM AKST Wed Feb 15 2023 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...SE wind 30 to 45 kt becoming SW 25 to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Heavy freezing spray N of 55N in the morning. Snow. .TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. .THU...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain showers and snow showers. .THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. .FRI...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. .SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. $$ PKZ414-160300- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 410 AM AKST Wed Feb 15 2023 ...GALE WARNING TODAY AND THURSDAY... ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray N of 57N. Snow. .TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray near ice edge. Snow. .THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt becoming E 20 to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Snow and rain. .THU NIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. .FRI...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. .SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. $$
4 follow-up statements
670 FZAK62 PAFC 160036 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 336 PM AKST Wed Feb 15 2023 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-161415- 336 PM AKST Wed Feb 15 2023 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 952 mb low at 53N 168E moves to 55N 171E at 960 mb Thursday afternoon. The low remains nearly stationary and weakens to 976 mb Friday afternoon. A second 975 mb low forms at 56N 170W Thursday afternoon and moves to 60N 166W at 970 mb Thursday night. The low then moves inland Friday afternoon. $$ PKZ411-161415- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 336 PM AKST Wed Feb 15 2023 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 26 ft. Snow showers and rain showers. .THU...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft. Snow showers and rain showers. .THU NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Snow showers and rain showers. .FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. .FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. .SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .SUN...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. .MON...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. $$ PKZ412-161415- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 336 PM AKST Wed Feb 15 2023 ...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. .THU...SE wind 20 kt becoming 10 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Snow showers and rain showers. .THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Snow showers. .FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. .FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. .SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .MON...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. $$ PKZ413-161415- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 336 PM AKST Wed Feb 15 2023 ...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. .THU...S wind 15 to 25 kt becoming SW 20 to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Snow showers and rain showers. .THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft. Snow showers. .FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft. .FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .MON...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. $$ PKZ414-161415- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 336 PM AKST Wed Feb 15 2023 ...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT... ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray N of 57N in the evening. Snow. .THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 20 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain showers and snow showers. .THU NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Snow showers. .FRI...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. .FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .SAT THROUGH MON...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. $$
835 FZAK62 PAFC 161256 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 356 AM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-170200- 356 AM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 952 mb low at 53N 168E moves to 55N 171E at 960 mb Thursday afternoon. The low remains nearly stationary and weakens to 976 mb Friday afternoon. A second 980 mb low forms at 56N 170W Thursday afternoon and moves to 60N 166W at 970 mb Thursday night. The low then moves inland though early Saturday morning. $$ PKZ411-170200- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 356 AM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY... .TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 21 ft. Snow showers and rain showers. .TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft. Snow showers and rain showers. .FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft. .FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. .SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .MON...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. $$ PKZ412-170200- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 356 AM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023 .TODAY...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft. Snow and rain showers. .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft. .FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft. .FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .MON...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. $$ PKZ413-170200- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 356 AM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Rain and snow. .TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft. .FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. .FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. .SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. .MON...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. $$ PKZ414-170200- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 356 AM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023 ...STORM WARNING TONIGHT... .TODAY...SE wind up to 20 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Snow and rain. .TONIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Snow with rain showers. .FRI...SW wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 to 17 ft. .FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. .MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. $$
014 FZAK62 PAFC 170005 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-171445- 305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 963 mb low near 55N 173E moves to 58N 176E at 987 mb Sat afternoon. A 977 mb low near 56N 170W moves to 60N 165W at 974 mb Thu night and then moves inland Fri morning. A 980 mb low at 56N 165W Fri night moves to 58N 162W at 985 mb Sat morning. $$ PKZ411-171445- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY... .TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft. .FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft. .FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft. .SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. .SUN...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. $$ PKZ412-171445- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. .FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft. .FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .SAT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. .SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. .MON...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. .TUE...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 19 to 25 ft. $$ PKZ413-171445- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft. .FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. .FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. .SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. .SUN...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. .MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. $$ PKZ414-171445- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023 ...STORM WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Snow. .FRI...SW wind 25 to 40 kt becoming S 15 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft. .FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Snow showers and rain showers. .SAT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. .SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. .SUN...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. .MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .TUE...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. $$
002 FZAK62 PAFC 171258 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 358 AM AKST Fri Feb 17 2023 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-180230- 358 AM AKST Fri Feb 17 2023 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 980 mb low at 57N 176E remains nearly stationary through Sunday morning. A 980 mb low at 56N 165W Friday night moves to 58N 162W at 985 mb Saturday morning. The low then moves inland Saturday afternoon. $$ PKZ411-180230- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 358 AM AKST Fri Feb 17 2023 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft. .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. .SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. .SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. .SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .MON...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. .TUE...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft. $$ PKZ412-180230- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 358 AM AKST Fri Feb 17 2023 .TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft. .TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .SAT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. .SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. .SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. .MON...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. .TUE...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 21 to 36 ft. $$ PKZ413-180230- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 358 AM AKST Fri Feb 17 2023 .TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Snow and rain showers. .TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. .SAT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. .SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. .SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. .MON...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. .TUE...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 32 ft. $$ PKZ414-180230- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 358 AM AKST Fri Feb 17 2023 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...SW wind 25 to 40 kt becoming S 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft. .TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Snow showers and rain showers. .SAT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. .SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. .SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. .MON...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .TUE...SE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Feb 14, 4:56 PM AKST, 11 hours 14 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 14, 4:56 PM AKST, 11 hours 14 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 456 PM AKST Tue Feb 14 2023 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... The air mass RGB satellite shows the upper level pattern quite well this afternoon. Overall the pattern is highly amplified with a longwave trough centered over the Bering Strait region and a secondary center within moving from Southwest Alaska into Southcentral Alaska. There are two plumes of sub-tropical moisture aloft. The first is sliding eastward toward the Panhandle and was the fuel for active weather the last two days. The second is spreading over the western and central Aleutians, associated with a visually spectacular low pressure system south of the Kamchatka Peninsula. The low itself was analyzed this morning at 932 mb. The system is so large that the front extends eastward over the western/central Aleutians, and will be the focus for active weather for not only the Bering Sea and Aleutians today and tomorrow, but Southcentral later in the week. Currently, a front is moving onto the north Gulf coast bringing snow from Cordova and Valdez through Whittier. Inland locations are seeing far less snow. Behind that system, arctic air is filtering through the Southwest Mainland. Out west, the front is bringing high winds, snow, and blowing snow to the western Aleutians. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... Models are handling the weakening features around southern Alaska quite will with good agreement for the next 48 hours. However, further west is a different story. As the Kamchatka low is strong and large, guidance handles that quite well, however, a new disturbance will develop along the front in the northern Pacific. There are mainly placement differences for when the system enters the central and eastern Bering Sea. Timing and strength are well agreed upon. The forecast for late week is more uncertain because of the differences but it does look like there is good agreement in development of a stronger distinct low center in the vicinity of the Pribilofs. The GFS is currently the model of choice as it is the middle ground solution, but also agrees with ensemble mean guidance across ECMWF/GEM/GEFS platforms. && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through Wednesday morning. Chances for light snow increase around mid-day Wednesday morning with ceilings potentially in the MVFR range but more than likely stay VFR with flurries. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Friday)... A low near Kamishak Bay this evening will track south of the Kenai Peninsula as it pushes its occluded front to the north Gulf coast tonight. Winds are currently at their peak through Prince William Sound as the front approaches the coast. As the front moves inland this evening, winds and precipitation will diminish in intensity. Light snow showers will linger with weak onshore flow in eastern Prince William Sound into Wednesday, while a shortwave on the back side of the main upper trough will keep light snow going over parts of the western Kenai Peninsula, where 2 to 4 inches of snow may accumulate between Kenai and Homer. Cold advection coming in from the west on Wednesday will also contribute to continued light snow along the Kenai Mountains and Chugach Front Range, including the Anchorage area. This may produce accumulations up to an inch, with cloudy skies remaining in place around Cook Inlet. While snow will taper off for a relatively quiet and dry Wednesday night, it returns Thursday with a strong shortwave trough tracking west to east across the state. South to southwesterly flow will accompany this feature, which will favor the south and west side of mountain ranges. Lower elevations along the Talkeetna Mountains and Chugach Front Range, including Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valleys can expect around another inch of snow accumulation as a result. Thursday night, a strong low in the eastern Bering Sea pushes its front into the western Gulf, where Kodiak looks to be warm enough to see only rain with this system. As the front moves into the northern Gulf, a colder air mass from the west cuts off the majority of the stream of warmer air moving up with the front. As the front reaches the north Gulf coast, this will keep precipitation as snow for much of Southcentral, with the potential exception of low elevations along the immediate coast. Several inches of snow will be possible over the western half of Southcentral on Friday, as most models are indicating a weaker cross-barrier flow component in the low levels (compared to the front this evening), with relatively moist southwesterly flow in the mid-levels, which may limit the typical dry downslope hole. However, there is still some uncertainty with the progression of the front and the development of a triple point low, which will have significant influence on the low-level flow and resultant snow totals. Stay tuned for further refinements to the forecast. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday)... A short break in the relatively active pattern is set to begin overnight into Wednesday as the remnants of the low and front that moved into the region yesterday shifts from near the northern Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay into the northern Gulf. Another shot of cold, Arctic air will move in from the northwest as the low departs and skies continue to clear from west to east as a shortwave ridge axis moves into place from the Bering. This will facilitate one more round of frigidly cold lows once again tonight, namely across the Y-K Delta, where lows will once again fall to between -10 and -20 Fahrenheit. The break in the pattern will be quite short, with the next system moving onto our doorstep by Wednesday afternoon in the form of a fast moving but rapidly decaying front entering from the eastern Bering Sea. This will give a quick-hitting round of snow to the region, progressing swiftly across from west to east from Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Most locations will not see more than 1 to 2 inches of new snow accumulation due to the fast moving and weakening nature of this next frontal system. A much more potent low will begin to have more notable effects on sensible conditions late on Thursday into Friday as it winds up to storm force out over the eastern Bering and pushes a more formidable front into the Southwest coast. Multiple impacts from this low and front will be possible, ranging from snow, blowing snow and strong onshore winds developing as the entire low shifts towards the Y-K Delta on Friday. There remains a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the track and timing of this next low, so expect further updates to the forecast as details for this next potentially much more impactful system become better refined. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 to 3: Today through Friday)... Whiteout conditions have begun this afternoon across the western Aleutians as a storm force front accompanied by heavy falling and blowing snow roars towards the southwest Bering while its parent Hurricane force low (the one that was analyzed earlier today at 932 mb) is south of Kamchatka. This front will make very quick progress northeast as it begins to weaken to gale force on Wednesday. Snow and perhaps some blowing snow will progress out ahead of the front as it transits the Aleutian Chain, but warmer air behind the front should change snow over to rain fairly soon after precipitation onset for any given location from Adak east, limiting the window for accumulating snowfall. Meanwhile, colder temperatures will hang on for longer up towards the Pribilofs, allowing for another brief round of blizzard conditions to develop as southeast winds and snowfall begin tomorrow morning. Fortunately, this period of near whiteout conditions will be fairly short, with the front moving past by the late afternoon and ending falling/blowing snow. Out to the west, the parent low will slow down and stall out west of Attu as it begins to slowly fill, but a core of southerly storm force winds will likely continue to impact the far western Aleutians through Wednesday. By Thursday, a potent shortwave trough will move into the central Aleutians from the North Pacific and begin to develop into a rapidly deepening, closed low as it enters the central/eastern Bering and pivots around the still stalled and weakening low farther west. Uncertainty for the exact strength, progression and timing of this low remains higher at this time, but there is a good signal that this low will once again produce at least a storm force wind field as it deepens and lifts northeast. Very strong and gusty winds will be possible across the central and eastern Aleutians south of the deepening low from Thursday night into Friday, depending again on where the low tracks and how quickly it deepens. There will also be yet another concern for snow and blowing snow developing closer to the low's center up towards the Pribilofs, again depending on the low's track and how much low level temperatures warm up as the low moves in. Stay tuned for updates on this next system in the very active pattern continuing across the Bering through the end of the week. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)... The key features of the long term include a building upper level ridge over the Gulf on Saturday with a broad upper level trough over the northern Bering. Initially for the beginning of the period, the jet stream remains south of the Aleutians and briefly traverses the southern mainland before shifting south over the Gulf on Sunday. Nonetheless, a mostly active pattern will continue into early next week as several North Pacific lows lift northward into the Bering and the Gulf. By Saturday night, a fast-moving North Pacific low remains south of the Aleutians and arrives over the Alaska Peninsula. This low then tracks northeastward into the Gulf, bringing the potential for precipitation for the southern mainland - from the Alaska Peninsula eastward to Prince William Sound coast. Depending on the position of this low as it reaches the Gulf, precipitation may spread farther northward into the Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin. Moving into Sunday, scattered showers look to persist across the Bering and Southwestern coast, however both the GFS and EC advertise a building an upper level ridge over the Bering early Monday morning. Meanwhile a potent low arrives over the western Aleutians and is quickly driven into the northern Bering by Monday night. If this setup pans out and the ridge strengthens as currently advertised, a highly amplified pattern will take shape for Tuesday as multiple North Pacific lows are steered into the Bering. Meanwhile much of the mainland may see calmer (though likely colder) conditions as offshore flow prevails through late Tuesday. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning 195. Winter Storm Warning 191. MARINE...Gale 119 130 170 172-176 179 185. Storm 177 178. Heavy Freezing Spray 130 138 150 160 165 179 185. FIRE WEATHER...NONE. && SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CQ SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AS LONG TERM...KO
The office that day
Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 3:13 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 13 hr | |
| Feb 14, 3:31 PM AKST | Storm Warning | AFC | 13 hr | |
| Feb 15, 4:10 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 48 hr | |
| Feb 15, 4:45 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 47 hr | |
| Feb 15, 4:45 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 23 hr | |
| Feb 15, 4:45 AM AKST | Heavy Freezing Spray Warning | AFC | 23 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.