Storm Warning 141, NWS Anchorage, AK

796 
FZAK52 PAFC 161235
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-170200-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
Low pressure lingers across the Bering through Fri evening. High
pressure moves into the western Bering Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ750-170200-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ751-170200-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ752-170200-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ753-170200-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ754-170200-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ755-170200-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ756-170200-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ757-170200-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft subsiding to 14 ft in the
afternoon. Snow showers and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ758-170200-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt in the morning diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ759-170200-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft subsiding to 14 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt in the morning diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ770-170200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ772-170200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ771-170200-
Unalaska Bay-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ773-170200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ774-170200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ775-170200-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ776-170200-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt in the morning diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 13 
ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ777-170200-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ778-170200-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ780-170200-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt in the morning diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 11 
ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ781-170200-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ782-170200-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ783-170200-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ784-170200-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ785-170200-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ786-170200-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 50 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 29 ft.

$$

PKZ787-170200-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SUN...S wind 50 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.MON...S wind 45 kt. Seas 32 ft.

$$

PKZ766-170200-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
13 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ760-170200-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.  Snow and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 
ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ761-170200-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 
ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ762-170200-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ763-170200-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ764-170200-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft subsiding to 13 ft in the
afternoon. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ765-170200-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ767-170200-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E of Saint Matthew Island, NW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25
kt in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, NW wind 25 kt 
diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... SW 20 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
521 AM AKST Wed Nov 15 2023

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Rain and snow continues for much of the southcentral Alaska today
as as a trough digs across western Alaska, with its warm/occluded
front extending well out ahead of the low center. A winter
weather advisory continues for the Susitna Valley, where areas
north of Talkeetna along the Parks Highway are likely to receive 1
to 2 feet of snow, with locally higher amounts. Speaking
probabilistically, current thinking is about a 50% chance of
seeing 3-day snow totals above 8 inches for Talkeetna and about a
70% chance of seeing 3-day snow totals above 18 inches further
north in Chulitna.

Farther south, the 12z AFC sounding shows strong southeast flow
in the low-levels, centered at about 2000ft. This strong southeast
flow will continue to intensify this morning, resulting in quite
the downslope "precipitation hole" across much of the Anchorage
bowl. Additionally, temperatures for Anchorage and the surrounding
lower elevations will warm above freezing today thanks in part to
the downsloping wind. A concern remains for portions of the east
Anchorage Hillside and south Anchorage adjacent to the Turnagain
Arm, where strong winds will continue to gust in excess of 40mph.

In the latest forecast update, have kept precipitation as snow
just a bit longer in places such as Whittier and Portage where
temperatures remain on the colder side. Given upslope flow and
plenty of moisture coming off the coast, a quick few inches is
likely for Whittier this morning before a turnover to rain later
in the day thanks to relatively warm onshore flow. Portage Valley
may hold onto snow a little bit longer, with around a foot of snow
possible. However, temps near freezing and a wet snow or
rain/snow mix may very well compact snow to less than that. This
remains one of the higher uncertainty areas of the forecast and
will continue to be monitored through the day.

The downsloping across the Anchorage Bowl will subside towards
the late afternoon, with models hinting at some light
precipitation filling back in... though warm temperatures creates
a precipitation-type challenge. The hillside and east Anchorage
should return to being cooler than elsewhere in the city. These
places are more favored for some light snow accumulation, with
areas farther west struggling to accumulate much additional snow.
Generally speaking, totals remain on the light side for Anchorage,
Mat-Su Valley, and western Kenai where up to just a couple of
inches are possible. Can't rule out a few flakes towards the
center of the Copper River Basin by Glennallen, but accumulation
looks minor in this area.

The aforementioned upper-level trough slowly crosses southcentral
Alaska Thursday into Friday. Temperatures really begin to drop
through the lower-levels Thursday afternoon, resulting in a
changeover back to snow for anywhere that was previously too warm.
Shortwave troughs and upslope flow will result in some lingering
snowfall, though coverage will gradually diminish through the day.
Friday night will be the coldest night of the season for many
locations across southcentral Alaska as temperatures drop into the
single digits and, in some cases, below 0 for the first time
since last winter/spring.

-Brown

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1
through 3: Today through Friday night)...

A storm force low in the Bering Sea has now past it's peak
intensity, with the central lowest pressure now coming up slightly
to about 965 mb. The center is continuing to make steady progress
east-northeast, now located just northwest of the Pribilofs. The
main corridor of storm force winds is scraping past the central
Aleutians to the north, and is also beginning to nose into waters
near and south of St George Island. The low's occluded front now
bends north and east out to the Norton Sound, and farther out,
south and east into the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and Alaska Range.
Warm air has infiltrated much of Southwest with deep
southwesterlies moving in behind the frontal passage, with most
lower elevations now sitting several degrees above freezing.

Overall, very few changes to the forecast have been made for this
package. The overall thinking for the low moving inland and the
subsequent return of Arctic air and north to northwest flow as
the low and attendant upper trough shift farther east into
Mainland Alaska later in the week. Winds have now peaked in the
past few hours along the central Aleutians, and while a few gusts
in the 60 to 70 mph range will still be possible in Adak and Atka
for the next few hours, an overall downward trend in gusts should
continue throughout the day. As the low and corridor of stronger
winds shift east today, it will also graze the eastern Aleutians,
with a few gusts into Dutch Harbor up to 65 mph possible later
this afternoon.

Looking back towards Southwest, the main concern in the short term
continues to be the strong, onshore winds now picking up near gale
force into the coastline of Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta.
Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect for both areas due to
potential surge of 2 to 5 ft above the normal high tide line. The
worst potential for water reaching these levels will be during the
next high tidal cycle this evening along the northern shoreline
of Bristol Bay. The threat for coastal flooding/erosion will end
later tonight as the low moves inland and winds shift from onshore
to northwesterly.

Shifting attention to Thursday and beyond, things will quiet down
quite a bit but also become much cooler as Arctic air spills
south and east in the wake of the departing low. Rain showers over
Southwest will turn to snow showers over Southwest, then mostly
shut off away from the mountains between Thursday and Friday as
the low levels dry out. Numerous ocean effect snow showers will
also develop across the Bering Sea as Arctic air moves over a
still seasonably warm sea surface. These will intermittently
impact most of the Aleutian Chain, AKPen, and along the Kuskokwim
Delta Coast near Etolin Strait between Thursday and Friday as
below average temperatures also settle into place.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

The long term forecast period begins on Saturday. A cooling trend
will be well underway with temperatures around 10 degrees below
normal. Light to moderate snow should be ongoing across the
Copper River Basin and portions of Prince William Sound, east, as
an upper low shifts into Southeast Alaska into Saturday night. A
cold longwave trough will continue to dig south and east over
mainland Alaska and will bring the coldest air of the season to
southern Alaska with temperatures around 10 degrees colder than
normal into early next week. At the same time a drier air mass
will help to clear out most precipitation for both Southwest and
Southcentral through the weekend. The exception will exist over
the Bering where isolated to scattered snow showers are forecast
with the trough's passage. A Kamchatka low then brings a strong
front into the Bering Sunday into Monday with potential high winds
as the front moves through the Western and Central Aleutians. The
front will progress into the eastern Bering by Monday with a
rain/snow mix and enhanced southerly winds along the front, from
the Eastern Aleutians up into the Chukchi Sea.

CC

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Cloud ceilings are expected to drop below 5000' this
morning and dropping below 3000' by this afternoon. Periods of
IFR conditions are possible overnight. Southerly winds will pick
up later this morning, gusting to 20-25kts at times, and should
diminish again later tonight. Chances for snow linger throughout
the day but it will be light and intermittent. No accumulation
expected.

KM

&&