Storm Warning 111, NWS Anchorage, AK

860 
FZAK51 PAFC 302315
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
315 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-011130-
315 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front extending over the Southern Gulf moves to the North Gulf 
Coast for Sun afternoon. A 980 mb North Pacific low moves to of 160
nm Southwest of Yakutat at 998 mb by Mon morning and moves inland
by Monday afternoon. Its front trails across the Western Gulf 
through Mon morning.

$$

PKZ710-011130-
Cape Suckling to Gravel Point out to 15 NM-
315 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ711-011130-
Gravel Point to Cape Cleare out to 15 NM-
315 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ712-011130-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare from 15 to 75 NM-
315 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ715-011130-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point out to 15 NM-
315 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ716-011130-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point from 15 to 75 NM-
315 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ714-011130-
Resurrection Bay-
315 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2023

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ724-011130-
Northwest Prince William Sound-
315 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2023

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ725-011130-
Central and Eastern Prince William Sound-
315 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ726-011130-
Southwest Prince William Sound-
315 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ720-011130-
Port of Valdez-
315 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2023

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ721-011130-
Valdez Narrows-
315 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ722-011130-
Valdez Arm-
315 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2023

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ723-011130-
Passage Canal-
315 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2023

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ730-011130-
West of Barren Islands Including Kamishak Bay-
315 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ731-011130-
Barren Islands East-
315 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ733-011130-
Gore Point to Marmot Island from 15 to 80 NM-
315 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft. 
Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ732-011130-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak out to 15 NM-
315 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ734-011130-
Marmot Island To Sitkinak from 15 to 85 NM-
315 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, SE wind 15 kt becoming
NW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ736-011130-
Chiniak Bay-
315 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2023

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ737-011130-
Marmot Bay-
315 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2023

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ738-011130-
Shelikof Strait-
315 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ742-011130-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
315 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ740-011130-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
315 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ741-011130-
Kachemak Bay-
315 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2023

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
In the outer bay, N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
408 PM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A deep vertically stacked low is centered around 330 nm SSE of
Atka this morning. The low bottomed out last night at hurricane
force (as per satellite-based ASCAT winds), with a central
pressure around 965 mb. The low is tracking slowly off to the
E-NE, remaining south of the Aleutians. The leading frontal system
is lifting northward across the central to eastern Aleutians and
southern Alaska Peninsula, bringing widespread rain and strong
gusty winds. Out ahead of this system, a weak neutrally tilted
trough is crossing southern Alaska, with light rain falling across
much of the Copper River Basin. Snow levels are roughly 3000 to
3500 feet, bringing a fresh coating of snow to surrounding
mountains. The rest of southern Alaska is dry with a mix of sun
and clouds. Benign weather also prevails across the western
Aleutians under the influence of high pressure.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

While there is consistency with the overall pattern, there
continues to be minor shifts in timing/placement of key features
this weekend into early next week. All solutions show a trend
toward more spacing between the deep low crossing the Gulf Sunday
and the trailing Arctic short-wave. With less interaction of these
two features, the overall QPF forecast for Sunday-Sunday night
looks less impressive. However, there is good agreement on the
progression of the Arctic trough, reinvigoration of precipitation,
and arrival of Arctic air across Southcentral Monday-Monday night.
Minor differences in progression of this trough are key to
figuring out where the heaviest precipitation will fall. At this
point, favored areas include eastern Prince William Sound and the
Copper River Basin.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. A front
lifting northward across the Gulf on Saturday will spread rain
onshore into Southcentral. However, strong easterly flow across
the Kenai and Chugach Mountains should keep things dry at the
terminal. Even if there are some sprinkles or light rain,
ceilings/vis will remain safely in the VFR category.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Monday)...

A neutrally tilted, upper level trough tracking across southern
Alaska is promoting light rain showers across much of the Copper
River Basin this afternoon. Lowering snow levels are bringing
light snow to the surrounding mountains. Isolated shower activity
is expected to linger across the higher terrain surrounding the
Copper River Basin into Saturday morning.

A strong, vertically stacked low currently near the Aleutians
will push its surface front from the western Gulf to the northern
Gulf through the day Saturday. Strong winds, including widespread
gales across the open waters, and rain will first affect Kodiak
Island Saturday morning. The front will continue lifting north
toward the Southcentral coast, bringing rain high end gales right
up along the coast late Saturday. Northeasterly winds will develop
across Cook Inlet, the Anchorage Bowl, and the Matanuska Valley
late Saturday into early Sunday as the front continues north and
the pressure gradient between weak ridging over the Yukon and the
low over the AKPen tightens. Strong easterly-southeasterly winds
will also increase for Prince William Sound on Saturday night
with the heaviest rain falling along the immediate coast. Inland
areas, especially those in the lee of the Chugach and Kenai
Mountains, will likely see occasional sprinkles or very light rain
for Saturday due to a strong cross-barrier flow.

On Sunday, the low weakens as it moves east across the Gulf, and
winds and precipitation both subsequently decrease. By Monday,
another upper level trough moves over the region while an
associated weak surface low develops over the northern Gulf/Prince
William Sound area. Thus, expect rain and high elevation snow
across much of Southcentral.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tonight through Monday afternoon)...

The forecast remains on track in the short-term for the Bering Sea
region and Southwest Alaska. Currently, a North Pacific low, just
south of the Central Aleutians, is expected to continue on its
east-northeast track to just south of the southern Alaska
Peninsula (AKPEN) by Saturday morning. Gale-force winds and light
to moderate rain will accompany this system, especially along the
occluded front in the south-central to southeastern Bering.
Easterly Kamishak gap winds also pickup tonight into Saturday
morning for interior Bristol Bay before diminishing Saturday night
as the front pushes further into the Gulf of Alaska. Cooler air
will begin to filter in on the backside of the system for Sunday.
This cold air will be re-enforced Sunday night and Monday as an
upper-level shortwave trough digs southward from the Arctic to
over the Southwestern Mainland. The main impact will be increased
gap winds through the favored terrain of the AKPEN. Temperatures
Sunday night/Monday morning look to drop to the lower to middle
30s for the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Day, while middle to upper
20s are likely for the Lower Kuskokwim Valley with the coldest
temperatures around the western Alaska Range. Meanwhile, the
weather across the western Bering Sea and western Aleutian Chain
remains relatively benign as high pressure persists into Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

The start of the long term period next Tuesday begins with poor
deterministic model agreement. Thus, more weight has been given to
the ensemble means. Ensembles depict a large upper low anchored
over the Beaufort Sea on Tuesday. A second upper low is forecast
over the North Pacific well to the south of the Eastern Aleutians
by roughly 600 nm. Through the end of the week a new developing
low pressure center over Kamchatka will overtake the North Pacific
low, with a longwave trough becoming established from the
southern Bering into the North Pacific by next Friday. As the
Kamchatka low moves into the Bering Tuesday and Wednesday, a
large front will spread across the Western and Central Aleutians.
This should bring widespread showers and potentially elevated
winds into the Eastern Aleutians and then northeastward into the
Kuskokwim Delta as the front weakens and begins to dissipate. Much
of Southwest Alaska will be the beneficiary of high pressure,
likely experiencing generally dry conditions through the long term
period. Interior Southcentral may also see initial shower
activity on Tuesday and Wednesday dry out for Thursday and Friday.
Along the coast, however, a wet pattern may be ongoing as
southwesterly flow sees multiple shortwave disturbances digging
into coast through the end of the long term period. It should be
noted that the deterministic GFS has much drier conditions in
place while across the Gulf coast and the Gulf itself, as high
pressure builds back into the region. On the other hand, the EC is
more in line with ensembles. Which bring potential heavy rain
over Prince William Sound and along the coast, with lighter rain
moving further inland into Southcentral. All that being said,
forecast confidence in the long term is low.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DN
LONG TERM...BL